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Diederich

6,134 karma · joined June 3, 2009

diederich@gmail.com

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/diederich; my proof: https://keybase.io/diederich/sigs/QruSKNa2Thg727o9plenYNr2YaaaRAfZWxU_Va_eLuI ]

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Diederich··on Tesla Q3 2021 Earnings
Do you think battery availability is going to hinder the large incumbents' ability to scale here?
Diederich··on Leaded fuel reduced IQ of children born before 1990
> 8 years-old
Diederich··on Lake Tahoe hits a critically low water threshold
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_water_wars

But yeah, it's going to get a lot worse.

Diederich··on Global Climate Report – September 2021
"weather weirding" will tend to statistically disappear quite quickly given any kind of averaging.

A better measure is the number of incidents of weather extremes: heat, cold, rain, drought, storms.

I'm not going to look those up right now, but there's a ton of evidence that those incidents are going up dramatically.

Diederich··on Meterorite chunk crashes into house, bedroom, pillow
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylacauga_(meteorite)

The Sylacauga meteorite fell on November 30, 1954, at 12:46 local time (18:46 UT) in Oak Grove, Alabama, near Sylacauga. It is commonly called the Hodges meteorite because a fragment of it struck Ann Elizabeth Fowler Hodges (1920–1972).

Diederich··on Why didn’t auto-braking stop these crashes?
Good perspective.

I think, as you noted, that 'autopilot' is probably fine, but 'full self driving' is actively misleading.

Note that I use FSD for 90+% of all of my driving, and I think I'm safer because of it, but it has to be used with understanding and care. The very name 'full self driving' is something it might be some day, but it's nowhere close to that now.

Diederich··on Investigators say they've finally identified the Zodiac Killer
Emmy award nominated Babylon 5 episode! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comes_the_Inquisitor

One of the best, among many, of the series.

Diederich··on What Happened to Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp?
When I worked there a few years ago, the routing tables were being updated almost all day every day, primarily via automated processes.
Diederich··on Facebook-owned sites were down
A lot of the core 'ops like' teams at FB use IRC on a daily basis.

When I worked there, I wasn't aware of any 'test once per year' concept or directive.

Of course, FB is a really big place, so things are different in different areas.

Diederich··on U.S. declares more than 20 species extinct after exhaustive searches
That tore me up.
Diederich··on Vintage Byte Magazine Library
I've always found the advertisements at least as interesting as the actual content.
Diederich··on Tesla pushes U.S. to boost fuel economy penalties
"free market" isn't a binary thing. There's a spectrum between free market and regulation. Many spectrums.
Diederich··on Renting a car will be a pain until at least 2022
> BEV might not be practical for road trip vacations, at least not right now.

Taking a BEV on a road trip vacation is more tricky and requires more planning, but it's very doable. We've taken our 2017 340 mile (when new, current max range is about 327 miles) Tesla on a number of moderately long road trips. It's a bit slower and there are some places we could not have gone, but it definitely works.

Keep in mind that you can charge 3-5 miles per hour on nearly any standard 120 VAC outlet. With one of our trips to the mountains, we ran a 100 foot extension cord from our cabin and had little trouble keeping up with mileage demands.

More concretely, last year we moved from California to Washington state, a little more than 800 miles. Since it was in the middle of C19, we didn't want to stop over anywhere, so we had to do the drive in one day.

It took us about 16 hours to drive about 820 miles, an average of more than 50 miles per hour, including charge stops. 15-20 years ago we'd do 800 mile days in about 13 hours, or an average of 61 miles per hour.

The Tesla supercharger network is pretty extensive, extremely reliable and constantly growing. I don't have a sense of how widespread/reliable the other fast charging networks are, beyond various problematic stories I've come across.

PS: I've seen youtube videos of people doing 12-15 amp 120 VAC charging (gaining 3-5 mile per hour) in Teslas using portable solar panels too.

Diederich··on 20 years after 9/11: Will we ever stop taking our shoes off at airports?
I flew a number of times post 9/11 and accidentally brought a pocket knife with me in my carry on backpack several times.

It's all quite silly.

Diederich··on Amazon asked FCC to reject Starlink plan because it can’t compete, SpaceX says
Recall that Blue Origin patented landing rockets on sea platforms: https://www.geekwire.com/2015/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-dealt-s...

After various legal proceedings, that patent was invalidated.

Diederich··on Amazon asked FCC to reject Starlink plan because it can’t compete, SpaceX says
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuiper_Systems

"Kuiper Systems LLC is a subsidiary of Amazon that was set up in 2019 to deploy a large broadband satellite internet constellation to provide broadband internet connectivity."

Diederich··on Windows 11 available on October 5
If you have a moment, can you say the primary drivers behind your move? Thanks!
Diederich··on What Is the Most Free TLD?
> and would act when requested

Are you aware of any relevant precedent for this?

Diederich··on My MacBook Pro had over 10k USD in repairs
Yup.

I've had a lot of luck putting Ubuntu on older Macbooks for quite a few years now. Works quite well.

Diederich··on John Carmack visits Starbase
This is very true. I wish he would tone all of that way way down.
Diederich··on John Carmack visits Starbase
> vapor ware that Tesla spews from time to time

Elon Musk speaks quite aspirationally and optimistically from time to time, for both Tesla and SpaceX.

> SpaceX has delivered

They sure have! Tesla has also delivered over 1.7 million cars. They're on track to deliver about 750k cars in 2021 alone.

Diederich··on SpaceX’s Starlink near-misses with other spacecraft are getting ‘out of control’
> LPBs

Can you expand on that if you have a moment? Thanks.

Diederich··on Mailable Live Animals
My family and I lived on a farm for a number of years in the early 2000s. We raised chickens for eggs and meat.
Diederich··on Mailable Live Animals
We've received day old chicks via USPS several times. The local post office had different procedures. Rather than trying to deliver, we were called as soon as they arrived requesting us to come and pick them up.

It's pretty neat and kind of surprising at first. Of the hundreds of birds we've received via USPS, none of them were DOA.

Diederich··on It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record
> The difference is that an asteroid is an existential threat to humanity while climate change is just short of that.

This is a valid point.

To clarify, though, I don't think climate change is likely to make humans extinct, but I believe it has a non-trivial chance of destroying our civilization.

If/when the climate gets really bad, human irrationality will go into overdrive, and we'll be a massive danger to ourselves.

Diederich··on July 2021 was the warmest July on record for the globe
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-...
Diederich··on Atlantic Ocean currents weaken, signalling big weather changes: study
Putting more energy into a meta-stable chaotic system will greatly increase the number of extremes across the board. Models and forecasts are currently mostly focused on how the various averages are trending, which is fine and useful.

It's most correct to plan around every location getting more wet, more dry, more hot, more cold, more storms and more droughts.

Diederich··on SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night
> The single most important job humanity has is to get our eggs into more than one basket.

This is a defensible opinion, as are the others saying that the most important job of humanity is to fix our current basket.

While neither agreeing or disagreeing, I will note another very important thing SpaceX is doing:

"The value of beauty and inspiration is very much underrated, no question. But I want to be clear: I'm not trying to be anyone's savior. I'm just trying to think about the future and not be sad."

A lot of what SpaceX is doing is extremely inspirational, and I think the world could use more things to look forward to in the future.

Diederich··on SpaceX installed 29 Raptor engines on a Super Heavy rocket last night
I LOLd but then had to do the math. Turns out that the dry weight of a SpaceX Merlin engine, in gold, costs almost exactly the same as a production RS-25.

Current spot price of gold is $1800/oz. Merlin dry weight is 1380 pounds. 1380 pounds of gold is right at 40 million dollars.

Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-25#Space_Shuttle_program :

"A total of 46 reusable RS-25 engines, each costing around US$40 million, were flown during the Space Shuttle program"

Beautiful.

Diederich··on Wildfires in Canada are creating their own weather systems, experts say
Y'all might already know about them, but here are some links I've collected to monitor smoke.

https://fire.airnow.gov/

https://zoom.earth/

https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/information/firemap.aspx

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#t:adv;d:2020-09-10...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/particulates/surface/l...

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