Dlemlo

It only becomes a problem if the actions you take, are a one way street and net negative.

I for sure take AGI serious enough for my job, that I will not take out a big loan anymore.

But there are also indications right? If a lot of smart people say similiar things and they are wrong, thats a lot better to have trusted them than believing some weirdo with a sign "Aliens are coming".

Its fine if he trusts the right experts.

And its not really hard to at least understand one point: We are putting the most amount of money ever into compute and the smartest people on the planet on one topic: AGI and we see progress every month.

If you don't take this serious, even if we hit a hard plateu very fast (not seeing one at all) you are ignorant as hell.

You don't go to bed without a worry in the world if you have a wildfire 20km away you can see. You would also not see it as a waste to be awake and aware and alert while seeing were it moves.

The timeline thing though, its ranges right? But if you hear about the same or similiar timelines across different independent people, they just might have seen things in frontierlabs you can't.

Btw. AI feels complelty different if you have a lot more tokens available to you than if you wait or constantly run into token limits or if you skip fable level because you can't /wont afford it.

Imagine sitting in Anthropic or OpenAI and having the best moodel doing all the work for you vs. sometimes playing with it a little bit.

Yeah and if you look at there numbers, they can just afford it. When you realize how big zuckerberg still is.

I tried to build a procedural 3d asset pipeline for a specific use case.

Before the Opus upgrade in November it was basically no way of doing this. I gave up very quickly.

After November i tried again, and no model could build me anything relevant.

Now it just works. Took me an hour to progress to a point were i'm happy.

Whatever they do, progress is still real, still way faster than I assumed

The list of Ubuntus 2404 LTS CVEs is HUGE. Another indicator that a lot of stuff got a lot better fast.

Feel free to be as dismissive as you want, but if you are not careful, you might be 'suddenly' surprised and you might not be prepared for the conclusion of AGI level agents.

It might be an acessability issue.

If you already have a magic interface, which helps you pro activly in responding to everything uncensored because you feel like 'observered' or whatever and then you spiral in a whole and that one partner encourages you and gives you helpful steps to do anything.

But i'm more worried that the internet gets a lot less save with uncensored frontier LLMs.

Yeah right?

No clue why people use linkedin posts serious?

I mean, i check it to see if a recruiter has something interesting but otherwise?

It already makes a difference for me. Instead of going through logfiles, i copy and paste them to claude and it does something and tells me the right answer.

In coding, tools i vibe code.

But the industry is still working on the agentic layer. I think we will see the first real bigger agentic layer setups this year and it will stteam roll a lot next year.

Blog articles from Anthropic and others show that this is not true.

A LLM already knows more tokens than the current one. It was mentioned in a blog post about how a LLM is doing haikus and co.

There are also structures in an LLM which allows it to 'estimate' numbers to a certain degree and doing other things.

It's the fitness function: Make a model which is capable of predicting the next token. The next token of what? EVERYTHING.

So what does this lead to? To a generic intelligence which is capable of responding/answering everything.

If overfitted, the model just remembers every possibility in the world but this is not possible anyway so it will start to identify patterns and rules and will use them instead.

Basically 'compressing' every possibility to every question someone could ask -> compression leads to intelligence.

They learned generic concepts like our brain does to optimize for this particular surprisngly perfect task:

You have to be able to respond to a very generic question in a way that the other entity thinks this is good, comprehensive, etc.

You can call us situation predicting machines as well if you want.

But you undermine what the latent space of an LLM is representing.

Human intuitision is something which is good and bad and i don't know if an LLM needs this.

We have wiki pages describing fallacies of our brain we need to be aware of.

Its hard to understand how exactly these AI people mean it.

When i say "AI is changning the world" its more like "I can already see how this technology will continue to become better and better and has more impact every single day. It already affects people and it will have fundamentally changed A LOT in 3-15 years"

But lets be very realistic and clear: My computer systems at home were exploitable a lot more often this year than any year before JUST because of GPT or Claude.

Its still human made frontier progress.

And for sure it has a tremendes amount of implications, but its not the fault of the technology (we found, not invented).

And i'm only living once, my main motivation is not to just live day in day out the same stuff, i'm quite happy to see progress.

Am i worried about the future of our planet? For sure.