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EliRivers

6,140 karma · joined January 21, 2010

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EliRivers··on AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
I'd expect it to be generalised, where we (and everything else we've ever met) are specialised. Our intelligence is shaped by our biology and our environment; the limitations on our thinking are themselves concepts the best of us can barely glimpse. Some kind of intelligence that inherently transcends its substrate.

What that would look like, how it would think, the kind of mental considerations it would have, I do not know. I do suspect that declaring something that thinks like us would have "general intelligence" to be a symptom of our limited thinking.

EliRivers··on AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
A bit poorly named; not really very general. AHI would be a better name.
EliRivers··on AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
I'd accept that as a human kind of intelligence, but I'm really hoping that AGI would be a bit more general. That clever human thinking would be a subset of what it could do.
EliRivers··on AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu
Would we even recognise it if it arrived? We'd recognise human level intelligence, probably, but that's specialised. What would general intelligence even look like.
EliRivers··on Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
provided they continue to go through with the investment

I recall the Foxconn Wisconsin situation, and I have no doubt Apple et al are well aware of it. String out a pretense of building factories in the US for the next three and a half years? Easy peasy. President Trump will soon get bored of this game anyway and move on to the next one; he already looks like he's bored of it and it didn't bring him universal acclaim and admiration.

EliRivers··on The End of Sierra as We Knew It, Part 1: The Acquisition
People say they want realism in games. They don't. That's just a thing people have learned to say.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuTkgi7scKo

EliRivers··on Utah becomes first US state to ban fluoride in its water
Indeed. While the UK and the USA have comparable levels of dental health, in US television actors typically require very good (or rather, cosmetically appealing according to local norms) teeth in order to succeed. In the UK, it's less important.
EliRivers··on Percentage of parents financially supporting adult children reaches 3-year high
Genuine question that may come across as snark, but I promise it's not!

"you don't grow up until you have to balance a check book."

Is that just shorthand for "be properly aware your own budget and finances" or are there literally still enough people using check (cheque as I might write) books in the US that this is still a literal task people learn.

EliRivers··on How much are LLMs boosting real-world programmer productivity?
Every so often, it saves me a few hours on a task that's not very difficult, but that I just don't know how to do already. Generally something generic a lot of people have already done.

An example from today was using XAudio2 on windows to output sound, where that sound was already being fetched as interleaved data from a network source. I could have read the docs, found some example code, and bashed it together in a few hours; but I asked one of the LLMs and it gave me some example code tuned to my request, giving me a head start on that.

I had to already know a lot of context to be able to ask it the right questions, I suspect, and to thence tune it with a few follow up questions.

EliRivers··on Jeff Bezos exerts more control of Washington Post opinion
Free from anything that stops him extracting all surplus value from consumers and suppliers both.
EliRivers··on Jeff Bezos exerts more control of Washington Post opinion
Seeing Bezos advocate for free markers is a massive dissonance, until I remind myself that he hasn't said what they should be free of. Bezos would like to be free to run competition out of town, force brutal terms on suppliers, all that sort of thing.
EliRivers··on No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard (2024)
Indeed. Other commodities have other strengths; oil can be turned into a huge range of products that make people's lives better, wheat can be literally used to make food to radically enhance people's lived experience, aluminium is a key component in an enormous range of goods covering almost every aspect of life. If what Bitcoin can offer isn't having any actual application that improves anyone's life but is easy to move around, well, gotta go with your only strength, I guess.
EliRivers··on No Bitcoin ETFs at Vanguard (2024)
Other commodities have a physical existence. That's quite a big difference.
EliRivers··on Lonely sunfish in Japan gets cardboard human friends
Perhaps they feel that tobacco farming and harvesting causes significantly less distress to the tobacco plants than animal farming and slaughter does to the animals.
EliRivers··on Genetics, not shared envs, drives parent-child similarities in intelligence
I suspect (but cannot prove) that if two children were swapped at birth and placed in a completely different culture on the other side of the world, their behaviour would be very different and would match that culture far more than that of their genetic parents' culture.
EliRivers··on What it's like working for American companies as an Australian
Nah. Just don’t want to work with negative Nancy. You bring everyone down.

Are you aware that your attitude also affects everyone in a negative way (and you just don't care?), or are you oblivious to the damage you do to people?

Or maybe for you it's all about the output and how good your numbers look, and damaging people is just a price to pay?

EliRivers··on Chatham House Rule is suddenly everywhere in the Bay Area
It pairs really well with free speech

How does it pair well with free speech? If I think that you might be recording me without telling me, I'll stop talking.

EliRivers··on Chatham House Rule is suddenly everywhere in the Bay Area
It can be so very valuable. I was at a conference in the last quarter discussing the effects of the Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea. There has long been rumour that it's possible to pay a few hundred thousand dollars, funneled to the Houthis, for which your ship will be granted safe passage through the Red Sea without being shot at with anti-ship missiles, or attacked by drones. There was rumour that some of the insurers in the Lloyds shipping insurance markets were open to these negotiations. Not long ago the UN pushed out a report discussing this sort of payment.

A bod there whose situation in life made him one of the most likely people in the world to know if anyone in the Lloyds markets was engaging (except anyone actually doing it), and has a long reputation of saying truthful things under the Chatham House rules in such conferences, said he'd not seen any of that and not heard of anyone doing it. It's not the same as fact, but with his long-term reputation and his position in life, it signficantly changed my working calculus on the subject. He didn't want to be professionally quoted on it, hence the CH rule.

Nothing at all to do with having the freedom to be a dickhead or anything like that. Nothing to do with wanting to lie to people without consequence.

EliRivers··on Chatham House Rule is suddenly everywhere in the Bay Area
If you really believe something, say it loudly and proudly and sign your name to it.

And then wait for the lynch mob to come round because they disagree that {people shouldn't be property / women should be allowed to own property / etc }.

EliRivers··on Ask HN: How to approach first days on a new job as a senior engineer?
Like any new job in which you are unaware of the context or politics; with your mouth shut.
EliRivers··on Why was there a wall near runway at S Korea plane crash airport?
I recall back in 2020, when Pakistan International flight 8303 belly landed at Karachi, slid down the runway, and then took off again and had a go at going around, the investigation showed that between them, the pilots just screwed up on having the landing gear down and had a go at landing without it for no other reason than they fumbled it.
EliRivers··on India's food shortage filled American libraries
I sometimes wonder if feeling good about "ancient culture" and "proud history" creates an attitude that there's no need (or no point) to add to any of that in the present. For how long can a people use the achievements of those who died a thousand years previously as a crutch to not to live up to those achievements.
EliRivers··on Insurers rely on doctors whose judgments have been criticized by courts
They get round this by what's called "intercompany eliminations".

UHC and chums simply buy the medical providers, and can then use them to launder people's premiums. UHC et al can only keep a maximum of 20% (? - I forget the exact figure) of the premiums; but if UHC simply own the hospitals, then money laundered through those hospitals via very high profit procedures etc become permitted profits for UHC.

EliRivers··on Insurers Rely on Doctors Whose Judgments Have Been Criticized by Courts
You can negotiate all you want but ultimately the productivity improvements have to come from providers (hospitals, pharmaceutical companies) if you want to lower costs.

Why would they turn productivity improvements into lower costs, when they could instead turn them into higher profits? Big health insurers such as UHC practice "intercompany eliminations", as it's known; they own those providers you mention and use increasing charges there to get around the limits on how much of the insurance premiums they can keep for themselves. It's in their interests for the charges to go up, especially on anything that's actually cheap. Productivity improvements is just more profit to launder through the providers they own for the purpose of laundering those premiums.

EliRivers··on Where Is James Bond? Trapped in an Ugly Stalemate with Amazon
What if they changed the character, not for the sake of changing it, but to bring out something new and interesting and creative that produced an overall better viewing experience?
EliRivers··on Where is James Bond? Trapped in an ugly stalemate with Amazon
I thought Roger Moore played the sociopathic side of Bond quite well; the same level of bon mot whether he's playing cards or just sliced someone's head off.
EliRivers··on What is your bet in 2025?
SP500 keeps going.
EliRivers··on Ask HN: Predictions for 2025?
Crypto is the future of money and finance; however, it will always be the future of money and finance.
EliRivers··on The California job-killer that wasn't
From what I read, the activist investors were complaining about poor sales and an inadequate China strategy. Not 2% payrises for employees.
EliRivers··on The California job-killer that wasn't
That's a quick way for CEOs get fired.

Do you have any evidence of CEOs being fired by shareholders because workers got a payrise? Starbucks has been handing out payrises of a couple of percent this year but I don't see shareholders firing the CEO. Likewise many other public companies.

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