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Futurebot

5,959 karma · joined April 6, 2012

Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/opir
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Futurebot··on Google Puts Boston Dynamics Up for Sale in Robotics Retreat
What we're doing now is a whole lot of nothing in the US; we've only recently been able to admit that this whole thing might be a problem, but are far behind in terms of actually doing anything about it. In your Finland, you are able to at least move forward from something resembling a solid political and cultural foundation; we're nowhere near that here.

The items I've listed would help us actually move forward to help people survive and navigate the new world: to give them individual agency, autonomy, and safety in a world where lifetime employment is gone; traditional unions are weak and/or are protecting jobs that may themselves be automated / cannot be created in numbers high enough to make up for massive job losses; the free agency/gig/Precariat economy is growing; and jobs are being automated away (even if Google has decided to step away for now.)

Identity factors, habits, location/mobility, etc. are all very important. Policy is meant to help provide a baseline for existence, not act as a panacea.

There will have to be logistical changes: many people will move to urban areas, as the UN predicts 2/3 of the world will live in by 2050, which are easier to provide services to, have high-quality educational institutions, and obviously what's left of many of the jobs.

There will have to be habit changes: those who want to compete will likely have to embrace autodidactism-for-life / training-for-life (free college / cheap online learning makes this one much more palatable.)

There will also have to be the hardest changes of all: cultural ones. We'll have different classes of people, many of whom will not be engaged in traditional work. Treating the latter as lazy slackers or parasites that deserve to starve will have to go, first and foremost.

We'll have people who still work, and who do much better than those that don't. With proper tax policy and others that I've outlined, we'll hopefully be able to avoid massive wealth gaps / concentration that could lead to massive social upheaval. Some will be managers, developers, business owners, etc. Others will still be in the gig economy, but will exist within it while working from a much more stable base. Being on a "zero hours" contract or working as an Instacart shopper will be much less punishing if you can always afford a place to live.

We'll have the "socializing/partying" class that may just get drunk, do drugs, and hang out with their friends, etc.

We'll have people who do spend their time mostly consuming media (video games, movies, news, etc.)

We'll have people who just sit around learning new stuff because they enjoy doing so; the idea of a lifetime of academia becomes much more appealing when you're not perpetually on the verge of starvation.

We'll have people who create music, art, social media posts, and image memes full-time without worrying about paying the rent.

We'll have people who finally get to play sports or make handicrafts like they've always wanted to.

The biggest adjustment we'll have to make: people will be required to find their own meaning if they can't work, and so cannot derive their identity from their job as they have in the past. Jaron Lanier's "multiple overlapping hierarchies of status" will become ever more important (from both sides: creation/participation and consumption.)

Politics and policy are just the start.

Futurebot··on Google Puts Boston Dynamics Up for Sale in Robotics Retreat
I honestly hope it's the former.
Futurebot··on Google Puts Boston Dynamics Up for Sale in Robotics Retreat
I really hope that the last paragraph is wrong. Getting out of that area because they're afraid of neo-luddite backlash is ridiculous. Instead, they should be using their considerable power to push the much-lauded "Silicon Valley Democracy" (http://www.vox.com/2016/2/19/11057836/silicon-valley-democra...). Things like:

- Guaranteed income, or at least a stopgap like the old welfare system, but with far less means-testing and much more generosity

- Universal, free higher education

- Free, universal health care

- Smart, flexible regulatory apparatus

- A complete rethought system of unions (a la Sweden)

- Massive push (or even buildout) of dense urban housing developments. Make the modern "company town" an explicit goal if you must, then expand it to regions across the country

I really wonder if the Nordics have a leg up on us here; they're already 3/4 of the way towards this ideal, both in terms of policy and a cultural understanding of the benefits of a truly progressive taxation system/public goods and services. Would a Danish or Finnish robotics company bail out just because of fear of backlash, or would they say "society already has you covered, people"?

Futurebot··on Jobs Involving Routine Tasks Aren't Growing
Just because it was true then, does not mean it will be true now. The Luddite Fallacy Fallacy; Gwern does a good job explaining it and supplying copious links on the subject: https://www.gwern.net/Mistakes#neo-luddism
Futurebot··on Jobs Involving Routine Tasks Aren't Growing
Do you have more sources on this? I've been looking for good data on the competitiveness of traditional blue-collar "trade" jobs/industry since it started becoming the go-to panacea to all our job woes a few years ago. It seems like plumbing, electrician work, HVAC, etc. would be pretty easily saturated areas; how many plumbing jobs can be sustained per neighborhood, for example?
Futurebot··on On asking job candidates to code
Exactly. A frequently under-appreciated fact. Another one is that much (complete/quality) code may be from past employers/clients, which you have no right or ability to display publicly.
Futurebot··on Enrollment Is Surging in Machine Learning Classes
Where would you go next if that sub-area is already saturated? I'd particularly like to get some opinions for self-taught devs tired of CRUD and DevOps land(s.)
Futurebot··on When I Was Your Age
This is one of the reasons that Germany housing policy is so successful: http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/#1ef0063ebb2d

In the US, housing is treated as an asset, which is a huge mistake. In place like Germany, most people are renters because: rents stay fairly low, the government reassesses population periodically to allow more houses to get built, and renters have plenty of rights. Here, we allow houses to act as a hybrid place to live, ATM, and stock.

Futurebot··on The Robots Are Coming for Wall Street
The WSJ and Forbes ones were too short (Forbes one was OK, quality-wise, but too ad-laden.) This was the best of the bunch, and if it describes a real phenomenon (the multiple articles convinced me it did) then it's worth sharing, even if it's a bit pitchy.

Edit: I was under the impression the NYT flags its sponsored content in any case.

Futurebot··on The end of the establishment?
Apparently, it's much harder than it seems in our system: http://www.vox.com/2015/11/17/9749754/obama-presidential-pow...

'President Harry Truman complaining:

"I sit here all day trying to persuade people to do the things they ought to have sense enough to do without my persuading them. ... That's all the powers of the President amount to."'

Futurebot··on Atlas, the Next Generation [video]
That's far from guaranteed, and looks less likely all the time. See, the "Luddite Fallacy Fallacy." Gwern gives it a nice treatment here: http://www.gwern.net/Mistakes?cx=009114923999563836576%3Adv0...
Futurebot··on The Weird Global Appeal of Heavy Metal
The 1990s had moments of unexpectedly good, non-traditional music that brushed the mainstream, with stuff like the more "eclectic" grunge bands (Soundgarden, STP, Alice in Chains), metal (Tool), Industrial Rock and Industrial Metal (NIN.)
Futurebot··on In Colorado, a look at life after marijuana legalization
Sounds like there's room for innovation here. How about portable THC testers for drinks, foods, etc.?
Futurebot··on A Long Game
There are compromise moves that are possible with political will. Eminent domain + temporary relocation assistance + a guarantee to be able to own a unit in the newly constructed building.

Knock down a 2-story house, replace with a 50 story one. Give the former owner a 1 or 2 bedroom in the new place, and put them up in a hotel while construction is underway. A small price to pay to get a whole lot of new units.

Futurebot··on A New Breed of Trader on Wall Street: Coders with a Ph.D
That's the essence of complementarity. Cowen's "Average is Over" talks about it a lot, and uses many chess examples specifically to back it up. Recommended.
Futurebot··on Beijing is banning all foreign media from publishing online in China
"isolating closed regimes is like 'threatening a drowning man with a lifeboat'" - Ian Bremmer, the J Curve: http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1071855.html
Futurebot··on Ask HN: Best resource for learning some general UI?
"The Design of Everyday Things" is still a great place to start if you're looking for a broad, general overview of UI and UX.
Futurebot··on Under-35s in the UK face becoming permanent renters, warns thinktank
s/much more slowly/much more quickly/
Futurebot··on Under-35s in the UK face becoming permanent renters, warns thinktank
Local economic conditions (incomes and rising rents especially) and renter laws aren't equal everywhere. Here in NYC market rate renters can expect 4-10% rent increases a year and can be tossed out for almost any reason whatsoever. In SF they have the Ellis Act. My understanding is that in places like Germany, where renting is common, things are very different (renters are some kind of partial owners of the places they rent, and enjoy much greater protections than in other places.)

In the most difficult US markets, ownership is a lifeboat on a wild economic sea if you can come up with a downpayment or, even better, can buy outright, as rents tend to grow much more slowly than property taxes. This is doubly true if you own an apartment rather than a house and can just pay a maintenance fee rather than dealing with paying for it yourself.

Futurebot··on SoundCloud could be forced to close after $44m losses
I really hope this isn't true. I've hosted my own music there for years (and am a paying customers), and almost all of the interesting new music I find is from there.

One thing that might help them is to charge non-creators for some services. Right now there just doesn't appear to be any reason to if you're just a listener.

Futurebot··on Twitter's rumored algorithmic timeline switch
Twitter could just make it so the algorithmic timeline is implemented as a "show me what I missed" feature via a button. Exactly what FB should have done. Good UX can sidestep this entire issue.
Futurebot··on American Students Know Almost Nothing About Their College Loans
This is not a realistic thing to expect anymore: http://www.vox.com/2015/8/28/9220705/college-working-map
Futurebot··on American Students Know Almost Nothing About Their College Loans
That's getting much more common, apparently:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/if-your-pa...

"If Your Parents Are Still Paying Your Bills, You're Not Alone"

Futurebot··on American Students Know Almost Nothing About Their College Loans
"Entrepreneurs don’t have a special gene for risk—they come from families with money"

http://qz.com/455109/entrepreneurs-dont-have-a-special-gene-...

Alternatively, one can spend a few decades saving money and then try something on one's own. Very far from optimal, but it's all some people can do.

Futurebot··on The collaboration curse
I agree with the article and many of the comments here. I'd add that there's another thing: a one-size-fits-all design. Open plan offices are very good for workers for whom collaboration is constant; I've seen sales, marketing, some ops, and a few other departments who would constantly interact no matter what kind of office layout they had. For work that requires lots of concentration and little collaboration, though, that layout is counterproductive. Companies should start thinking about role needs and the space required to support maximum productivity, rather than just having a single layout because it's easier/cheaper. How about a ring of private offices for those that need it surrounding a shared collaboration space? I worked at one place like with that layout and it worked very well.
Futurebot··on Do Elite Colleges Lead to Higher Salaries? Only for Some Professions
Related:

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21651207-book-persist...

https://hbr.org/2015/10/firms-are-wasting-millions-recruitin...

Futurebot··on Request For Research: Basic Income
I'm so happy to see this kind of forward-looking work. The writing is on the wall with the constellation of automation, inequality, free agent nation/gig economy, the Precariat, the end of lifetime employment, and the desire for greater labor fluidity (on both sides of the table.) Taken together, these things make the GBI an incredibly important think to start thinking about right now. The fact that a prestigious organization like YC is interested in it is a hopeful sign / leading indicator.

My ideas for making a GBI possible: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/the-missing-piece-in-the-basic...

Short: figure out how to make essentials (food, housing, education, health care) cheap. Obvious, but thinking about how to get there is critical if for a GBI to ever happen.

Futurebot··on Entrepreneur porn is a dangerous fantasy
The "Horatio Alger" myth is one of our most common to illustrate this one. Which is hilarious, because the myth is based on a heavily abridged version of the stories:

"We think we know what comes next: Through hard work and perseverance, Ragged Dick emerges from destitution into a well-deserved fortune. But our contemporary notion of a “Horatio Alger story” departs significantly from what actually transpires in a Horatio Alger story. His heroes do exhibit many of the traditional self-made virtues—industry, frugality, a penchant for self-improvement—which set him apart from the ne’er-do-wells and confidence men who populate his adventures in the streets of New York. But these attributes merely qualify the Alger hero for success; they don’t produce it.

Instead, in Ragged Dick and in the scores of imitations Alger would write in its wake, the hero’s rise is the result of good luck and the good offices of a wealthy benefactor. In novel after novel, Alger’s hero meets a kindly gentleman who takes an interest in the poor boy’s advancement. He then buys the boy a new suit—a rite of passage into respectability that occurs in every story (often there’s a new watch, too)—and finds him a job, typically a junior position in a mercantile firm. Ragged Dick retires his boot-blacking kit when he’s offered a position as a clerk in the counting room of a Mr. Rockwell. He earns that position by saving Rockwell’s son, who conveniently falls off the Brooklyn ferry just as Dick’s penmanship has really started to improve."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history/2014...

Even our myths are mythical.

Futurebot··on Entrepreneur porn is a dangerous fantasy
The whole thing about the "happiness/money metric" is incredibly misleading, because it doesn't touch upon what money really gets you. Happiness as an emotion might (for some people) trail off after a certain point, but that should be considered irrelevant. Money buys you safety, freedom, and the ability to take risks; those things aren't going to show up in any kind of happiness study. If I had a serious amount of money, that would give me the freedom to work on things I want to work on without having to worry about paying the rent, getting downsized, getting my pay cut, and all the rest.

The idea that the artist that doesn't have to spend their life working in a coffee shop to fund their art or that the software dev that would rather write FLOSS all day rather than take on boring contract gigs isn't happier is absurd on its face.

Futurebot··on Entrepreneur porn is a dangerous fantasy
Really sorry to hear that. I didn't wind up homeless (thankfully) when I did it, but I burned through a good portion of my life savings (20+ years worth.) I'm going to write about it at some point, but the short version is that if you don't have any family or anything similar to fall back on other than your savings, you'd better be very sure your idea is a winner in advance (not exactly trivial.) We all know about the magical exceptions, but most of us aren't in a position to take risks like that without losing most or all of what we have, and that fact sucks. People (especially younger ones) are more risk averse for good reason:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-slow-death-of-americ...

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/29/chart-of-the-day-m...

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