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Futurebot

5,959 karma · joined April 6, 2012

Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/opir
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Futurebot··on Declining Student Resilience: A Serious Problem for Colleges
There are some left, but those middle positions are 1) no longer safe in the way they were once perceived to be and 2) vanishing faster all the time. The trend shows that "hollowing out" has been occurring for quite a while:

http://economics.mit.edu/files/5554

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2011/04/27/how-do-yo...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/28/ho...

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/09/the-holl...

The choice is more between "member of various elite / professional jobs" and "Starbucks"; there is no exaggeration.

Futurebot··on Declining Student Resilience: A Serious Problem for Colleges
Right. I'm surprised the author of this piece is surprised. As someone as apparently knowledgeable about education as he is, you'd think this would be top of the list. All the grit in the world doesn't matter if the places you apply to want a degree, the right kind of degree, the right schools, with the right grades, and most importantly, that the filters keep getting tighter and the requirements made more ridiculous (since the numbers of people who apply to any given job increases and you need a way to keep that pile of resumes manageable.)
Futurebot··on Declining Student Resilience: A Serious Problem for Colleges
How about instead of placing the blame on helicoptering, which may in fact be part of the problem, we consider something else: students being realistic about what failure means to their future.

We're in an era of hypercompetition, increased barriers to entry for even menial jobs, massive wealth concentration, vanished upward mobility (and easy downward mobility), stagnant wages, credentialism, offshoring/outsourcing, and vanished company loyalty. Viewed in this light, reactions of students to every negative statement or bad grade is completely rational: with the incredible number of people applying for each job, and the ever-increasing requirements to get one (looking at GPAs, etc.), students know that even minor issues now can mean large issues in the future.

Maybe students aren't hypersensitive; instead they're hyper-attuned to the realities they're facing:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3999248

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credentialism_and_educational_...

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2011/11/how_elite_firms....

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/09/ernest-y...

Another thing I'd add, which is related, is that grit, while important is far from sufficient for success. It would be great if this was more widely appreciated. I wrote a short post on it: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/the-character-hypothesis-neces...

Side note: I tried to comment on the article, but the spam filter there is incredibly aggressive.

Futurebot··on You would be a bad millionaire
This person is not talking about people with serious ambitions; he's referring to the would-be near-idle or idle rich. Many of us would do a great many things:

- become VCs/angels

- build bigger, self-funded businesses

- donate big money to charities, or start our own

- do direct giving to those need (my preference to charity)

- donate to institutions doing basic science, medical research, life extension, youth preservation research

- pay to attend a prestigious university beyond our financial means and time budget

- spend more time producing free software, music, art

- go work somewhere just to work on interesting things / fun without fear of making the best choice earnings or reputation-wise, or just beyond one's current abilities due to lack of the proper background. Example: someone is very interested in working on robotics. They work "survival tech" jobs that they can't just quit to magically attend the MIT robotics program, which would lead to to work in the field. Their potential is wasted at present; if they had the money, they could contribute a whole lot more.

Some of us would make fantastic millionaires.

Futurebot··on Google Brings in Chief for Self-Driving Cars
Sure, not everyone, but an ever-increasing number:

"In 1950, one-third of the world’s people lived in cities. Just 50 years later, this proportion has risen to one-half and will continue to grow to two-thirds, or 6 billion people, by 2050. Cities are now home to half of humankind."

http://www.un.org/en/globalissues/briefingpapers/cities/vita...

Futurebot··on Gaps in Alumni Earnings Stand Out in Release of College Data
I'm glad to hear you had a more positive experience in that area. I'm speaking from my own experiences, and from conversations with degreeless peers over the years (started in 1997), whose opinions concur with mine; what I've witnessed may be more prevalent than you might think. Consider that not everyone may inclined to discuss it openly. It's not a particularly comfortable subject.
Futurebot··on Gaps in Alumni Earnings Stand Out in Release of College Data
I'm not sure if it's true or not (and I was one of those self-taught in the late 1990s devs) that it's harder now, but I can tell you that even back then it had challenges even beyond getting a foot in the door: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...

It was possible then, and it's possible now; it is definitely a lot more work than with the degree, though.

Futurebot··on The paradox of soil: Land has returned as a constraint on growth
Though not quite new, we do also have great examples of beautiful, stately, high density buildings in NYC like 45 Christopher: https://www.google.com/maps/place/45+Christopher+Street,+New...

There are plenty on Park that would fit the bill if they were divided into more apartments. I also agree with you on 8 Spruce, despite some of the hate, I like it, and it's infinitely preferably to many of the green glass monsters that have gone up.

Futurebot··on Entrepreneurs don’t have a gene for risk – they come from families with money
That's great that you had the mental fortitude to make it through that. For many, being broke and homeless is the very bottom and is psyche-destroying (people are so afraid of it, we even have a phenomenon named for it - Last Place Aversion: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/occupy-wall-street...) You may not like the poor changes your mind thing, and why would anyone? That doesn't make it wrong. For example:

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/25/escaping-the...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/21/magazine/do-you-suffer-fro...

I'm also referring to the incredible narrowing of choices that you're left with (this one I've experienced first-hand, and by a read of these comments many here have experienced it as well), which you are surely well aware of. Don't let "what you don't like" or "what should/should not be" dictate your interpretation of the reality. I don't like that stuff either, but I'm not going to deny its real effects. It's not only callous, it's not correct.

Futurebot··on Entrepreneurs don’t have a gene for risk – they come from families with money
Absolutely. What I think some stating that this is all "common sense" miss is that for many people it's NOT. All the advantages some have are advantages they believe that others have. Couldn't go to university because you had to work? Why didn't your parents help you? What? Nowhere to live? What about your old bedroom? You've supported yourself since you were a teenager? Where were your parents! No money left? Huh? No trust or college fund? Not even a savings account that your parents set up for you? What about your credit card? You're afraid to start a business / go into debt / try to "work your way" through college? Why, if you fail you can just move in with your family! Why not get some "friends and family" investors? The list of these tacit assumptions, and by extension that you're just a fool or lazy because you didn't do those things (supported ideologically in this country by all the Just World Fallacy nonsense) is far more widespread than one may think.

It's really amazing just how many people cannot even fathom that others do not have the familial safety net and have been working to support themselves from an age where said people were just starting to think about what school to go to. For many, until they've lived on the razor's edge, they simply do not have the mental framework for understanding what living that way does to people.

Edit: I'd also add that for those of us who have seen the other side (I was upper middle class from 0-9 years old, fell into poverty after and lived that way until my early 20s - riches to rags sucks. Badly. Read all about it here if you're curious: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...) we know what the other side is like. We've seen it. We know what it's like to never worry about transportation, decent food, school supplies, books, tutors, spending money - and the ever-present implicit safety net. We saw our parents' friends go on vacations, buy multiple cars, live in huge houses, etc. So anyone, anyone who says it isn't a huge advantage is delusional or lying.

Futurebot··on Thinking too much: self-generated thought as the engine of neuroticism
Very interesting article. One thing that it makes me wonder about is if there's a mischaracterization of the concept of "immediate environment" with regards to the human mind in a modern society. Things like future job loss, reduced earnings, being forced to leave one's home, lifestyle and societal status downgrades, etc. may not be in the immediate _physical_ environment, but they are ever-present in our _social_ and _economic_ environments. For example, thinking about how you badly need to get rich sooner than later because ageism is likely to be a factor in the not-too-distant future isn't equivalent to thinking a lion may be in the room, but it doesn't mean the threat isn't just as - or in this case more - real. It's just that the scope of "immediate" and "environment" is shifted for those with high neuroticism. Something that could happen in just a few years is "immediate" enough to worry about.
Futurebot··on Let Students Sell Equity in Their Higher-Education to Finance It
Various European and Scand. models (I like Denmark's especially) would be ideal by a large margin, but that's very unlikely to happen in the US, so this at least attempts to deal with the problem in a way that might actually happen.

The advantages of this over the current system could and should be:

- Your family income is not considered, so you never wind up in the "donut hole" where they make too much to allow you to get much in terms of loans, but too little to get you full-rides for having tiny income.

- Your own savings shouldn't/couldn't be considered, so if you've managed to save up some money (emergency fund, etc.) as an adult (because we need our personal safety nets in the US) it doesn't vanish in a semester. With the current system, the amount you're given is dependent on your own savings as well as income. Everything is considered. That's a huge risk.

- The money is guaranteed to be there when you need it. Not subject to shifting political winds or anyone's variable income. No yearly reapplication.

- The amounts calculated with the current system are sometimes laughably low, particularly when it comes to housing costs. You should be able to ask for what you need based on actual extant reality.

For the investors, it could potentially be very lucrative. Most of the students would likely go on to make decent money and so you'd get paid back plus extra, but in cases where students hit it big, you could make a windfall (I'm sure Larry Ellison's school wouldn't mind 10%/year of his income.)

As someone who had to leave home as a teenager and has had zero family support (but would still love to go to NYU or Columbia: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...) - if I could take out $300k or so for 10% income for 30 years, I would do it in a second. They'd probably wind up with 450k or so.

Futurebot··on The Unemployable Programmer
Not everyone can. Here in the US, doing so without family support / fallback if you fail out makes it extremely risky. If you're supporting yourself completely, having to work gets in the way of going to school (immersion while working full-time, especially at workplaces that demand all your time is basically impossible.) Others succeed in a work setting, but struggle in school. Still others don't want to deal with mounds of debt, and have no college fund/trust fund/aren't good enough to get scholarships. There are lots of reasons.

https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...

Futurebot··on Entrepreneurs don’t have a gene for risk–they come from families with money
This post gets it right on all counts.

The "fallback option" is the real killer. It's hard for some people to imagine, but there are people out in the world without any family to rely on, or in some cases, any family at all - and not everyone has friends they can rely on, either. This affects not just business creation, but things like schooling (the need to support yourself with no free place to live is more stressful and difficult than it may seem.)

Until one hasn't had it, one may not realize what an absolutely incredible advantage it is.

Futurebot··on The Lonely End: in aging Japan, thousands die alone and unnoticed
Loneliness is deadly: http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/medical_exa...

The "epidemic of loneliness" has spread to many places. If you haven't read "The Lonely American" I implore you to do so if you care about this topic at all. An incredibly sobering read.

Book blurb:

"In today's world, it is more acceptable to be depressed than to be lonely-yet loneliness appears to be the inevitable byproduct of our frenetic contemporary lifestyle. According to the 2004 General Social Survey, one out of four Americans talked to no one about something of importance to them during the last six months. Another remarkable fact emerged from the 2000 U.S. Census: more people are living alone today than at any point in the country's history—fully 25 percent of households consist of one person only.

In The Lonely American, cutting-edge research on the physiological and cognitive effects of social exclusion and emerging work in the neurobiology of attachment uncover startling, sobering ripple effects of loneliness in areas as varied as physical health, children's emotional problems, substance abuse, and even global warming. Surprising new studies tell a grim truth about social isolation: being disconnected diminishes happiness, health, and longevity; increases aggression; and correlates with increasing rates of violent crime. Loneliness doesn't apply simply to single people, either—today's busy parents 'cocoon' themselves by devoting most of their non-work hours to children, leaving little time for friends, and other forms of social contact, and unhealthily relying on the marriage to fulfill all social needs."

Here's an article for Britain:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/...

It's everywhere.

Futurebot··on Business Can Pay to Train Its Own Work Force
Exactly right. That opportunity cost seems perpetually ignored. Also, when we talk about "value in the market of an employee's skillset", we're obviously talking about how much total compensation they'll receive. What ALSO seems to get ignored is the fact that the people you're hiring (particularly in software!) are or should be generating a multiple of that salary, so worrying about "90k" vs "110k" is laughable when they may be generating value of 500k-1M, even after you factor in health care and all the other benefits. Does anybody actually believe that those few tens of thousands of dollars (should) make or break anything? We're not talking about the cost of eggs or something here; we're talking about software, a huge force and value multiplier.

The (IMO very weak) counterargument here is "well, budgets are set to blah blah blah" - but in that case, you're allowing a difference of a few dozen thousand dollars dictate whether or not you get someone, which can be the difference between shipping, getting out a new version, or whatever and not doing so. If your budgeting is that inflexible, maybe your organization has other problems it should address first.

When it comes to software, cost-based pricing should not be anywhere near the discussion. Software developers and their output should judged on value. It's crazy that anyone is still in this mindset after nearly two decades of software eating the world. We may be getting paid a lot relative to the median, but it's still just a fraction of the value it creates - otherwise, why would anyone bother? Hire a dev for 135k for example (includes benefits), and have them only generate 150k worth of value? Come on.

Futurebot··on Marketers’ Fixation on the Millennial Generation
It's even broader than that. Different sources and countries use different ranges, so where you fall depends on which you consult (some use 1976 as a starting year, others use 1978, and still others use 1980 or 1981.) Some also carve out additional generations (MTV generation / Doom Generation / XY Cusp Generation along with Echo Boomers / Generation McGuire) for people born in the edge years. Here's more:

http://www.esds1.pt/site/images/stories/isacosta/secondary_p...

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/brainiac/2008/04/fin...

The old Wikipedia article on XY Cusp before it got edited: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:JCDenton2052/mh5

Excerpt: "The XY Cusp includes those people born in the mid-to-late 1970s and early 1980s. The word XY is used because their generational identity is mixed, uncertain, or deviant from X or Y or both, but do not constitute a separate generational group in themselves. Some place the years between: 1976-1983 [3] [4][5] [6] People born within this group are in parallel situations with people born in between previous generations: Generation Jones between Boomer and X - late 50s, early 60s, (teens of the 70s); between Silents and Boomers - late 30s, early 40s (teens of the 50s); and the Beat generation between G.I. and Silents - late 10s, early 20s (teens of the 30s). They are referred to as Cusper Groups, Transitional Times, or Buffer Zones. John Losey states "If you couldn't neatly place yourself in any of the [generations], then you're probably a Cusper. 1943-1947, 1962-1967 and 1976-1983 are each considered transition times. Many people born during these cusp periods identify with the generations on either side."

There's definitely no single standard in sociology on this.

Futurebot··on Against Tulip Subsidies
Percentage is definitely up for debate. Maybe MIT/Harvard/Stanford could do 8-10% and University of Whatever could do 4%. Or maybe they could vary it based on projected likely future earnings or some other factors. In any case, if the option was there, I'm sure many would take it. I would.
Futurebot··on Against Tulip Subsidies
We could try the "Unincorporated Man" (aka equity-based) approach to paying for higher ed: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/04/unincorporated-man.htm...

Instead of paying with loan money or hoping for grants, anyone could go if they will give up (for example) 10% of all future income (this is not the same as "income-based repayment.") Instead, a system like this would have whoever is buying the shares (I'd prefer it be universities themselves) give you a full ride (not just tuition, but books, room and board, transport, food, etc.) and you'd pay them out of your gross income after you graduate. The big difference is that just about anyone who is willing to give up the percentage could get it. Sticker shock and rising bills do not come into play. Right now, you're at the mercy of the financial aid system and all its fickleness (relatives make too much/too little, you have too many/too few assets, you are in a high CoL area and loans don't cover anywhere near what you need, the amount they're willing to give you shifts with the political winds, etc.)

The advantages of this system are that you would never have to worry about your relatives being able to fund you; you wouldn't need to work while going to school; you would not need to reapply each year and hope you get enough; and there's no issues with bankruptcy or anything else (the obligation would be non-dischargeable, just like now, but since it's a percentage, the sting is much less.) Instead, the money would all be there the whole time.

On the investor side, it would be like VC: most people would produce standard returns (let's say 5-15k a year), while a few Elon Musks and Larry Ellisons would return billions - I'm sure many universities would be happy to occasionally get one of those.

In any case, there's no way it could be /worse/ than the system we have now.

Futurebot··on College Dropouts Thrive in Tech
I'm very glad to see that many of the more prestigious companies have loosened their restrictions and are willing to consider skill and experience, rather than formal credentials. Early in my career, this was definitely not the case. Heartening. There are still some less-than-ideal things people who don't go / drop out should be aware of, though. I wrote about some of them here:

https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...

Still, this is a heartening development.

Futurebot··on The Mary Meeker Internet Trends 2015 Report
"Free Agent Nation" came out in 2001. Pink did a great job describing what was happening, and what would continue to happen with the job market (independent working, gig economy, no company loyalty, jobs for life gone, all that):

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2008-06-10/free-agent-na...

I read it back then, but I think it's just as relevant today.

Futurebot··on Losing it All
Keep in mind that not everyone has living relatives (mine were all dead by the time I was 20), and some only have a very weak network of "friends" to fall back on.
Futurebot··on Peeple Is a Smart Peephole to Upgrade Your Door with Caller ID
Something closely related I would like to see: a system to identify people ringing apartment doorbells that is visible to tenants. Buildings without video systems or doorpeople rely on "who's there?" as their only means of authentication. Something that could be created and installed cheaply without a major retrofit (so that landlords would actually pay for it) would be great. This device comes close, but seems to be targeted more at homeowners. The device I'm talking would need to be shared among many tenants, and robust enough to deal with drunken buzzer pounders.
Futurebot··on Nobody is unemployable
'Nobody' here is highly contextual. From what I understand, there are some markets (outside the US, particularly in the developing world. E.g., http://dazeinfo.com/2014/10/28/1-5-million-engineering-pass-...) where there's a glut of talented people. They are 'unemployable' if they cannot move and cannot find remote work.

In the larger sense, there are plenty of people who are unemployable (though it can be geographically or temporally limited in scope -- not always ,though): Zero Marginal Product workers: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/07/zer...

To his point, though, the market in the US is still hot, and we're not /terribly/ far off from the first dot-com wave situation of "if you know HTML you can get hired in this market." Now it's more like "if you know Rails or one front-end JS framework decently, you can get hired." So if you have any skill, yeah, you're not going to unemployable here for a while, and whether or not you failed at your own company will probably not be relevant.

Futurebot··on Ambitious teenagers are flooding into San Francisco
I think this is amazing. Having a third choice beyond "go to college" or "go to work" has been sorely needed for many people. When I was a teenager (late 1990s) I wasn't able to go to college (had no family support, did a trade school for 1 1/2 years, ended in several types of disaster), so I went straight to work. If I had something like this as an option, I probably would have jumped on it.

A big plus is that even if they fail, many still have family support so they can just go back home and go to school a little later. Even if this is just another gold rush, this is a great opportunity for them with little to no downside risk.

Edit: about the Thiel money: it'd be nice to see a lot more people with the means doing this. 20 people isn't exactly scaling.

Futurebot··on Santa Monica council votes 7-0 to crack down on Airbnb
Maybe AirBnB needs a standards enforcement division. A 24-hour service where you call them up, make your complaint, and they send over some big scary people to knock on the offender's door and ask them to "turn it down" or "pick up their garbage." Local government offices and the landlords themselves can't respond quickly enough (the former can't/won't send someone there at 2AM and it'd be pretty tough to get the latter to run over to your apartment for this sort of thing.) Basically AirBnB police.
Futurebot··on Coders Can Skip College
They absolutely can, no question about it. Don't expect it to not have costs, though: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...
Futurebot··on Do You Want Money or Do You Want Power?
How about safety, independence, the ability to take bigger risks, and choices? That's what money gives you in America.
Futurebot··on Economic Inequality: It’s Far Worse Than You Think
Three things define American culture when it comes to economic values, decisions, and status:

1) The Lottery Effect "...the other main reason Americans seem so unperturbed by the widening chasm between the rich and everyone else is what I like to call the lottery effect. Buying lottery tickets is clearly an irrational act -- the odds are hugely stacked against us. But many millions of us do, because we see the powerful evidence that an ordinary person, someone just like us whose only qualifying act was to buy a ticket, wins our favorite lottery every week. For many Americans, the nation’s rowdy form of capitalism is a lottery that has similarly bestowed fabulous rewards on the Everyman." - http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/03/21/rising-wealt...

2) Last Place Aversion "that poor Americans’ antipathy toward redistribution might be due not to their desire to one day be at the top of the income distribution, but to their fear of falling to the bottom. We show that humans have a deep psychological aversion to being in “last place” -- recall the shame of being picked last in gym class -- such that individuals near the bottom of the income distribution may be wary of redistribution because it could help those just below them leapfrog above them." - http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/09/19/do-taxes-nar...

3) The Just World Fallacy "The just-world hypothesis (also called the just-world theory, just-world fallacy, just-world effect, or just-world phenomenon) refers to the tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just. As a result, when they witness an otherwise inexplicable injustice they rationalize it by searching for things that the victim might have done to deserve it. This deflects their anxiety, and lets them continue to believe the world is a just place, but often at the expense of blaming victims for things that were not, objectively, their fault." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just-world_hypothesis

Hopefully articles like this will get more people to understand these things.

Futurebot··on Parents with annual family incomes below $125,000 will pay no tuition
Curently an unfortunate reality: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...
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