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GVIrish

3,106 karma · joined December 5, 2012

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GVIrish··on Twitter’s mass layoffs have begun
You didn't see Twitter Spaces, Fleets, Birdwatch, Tweet Editing, and Twitter Blue? Some of those features have been successful for them, some not, but they've been releasing features.
GVIrish··on Purring is a love language no human can speak
The thing I always wonder is, in habitats where birds would normally have to deal with feline predators, how is the domestic cat worse than that? Any birds in environments that have feline predators would already be adapted to avoidng cats, unlike say, small Australian fauna.

I can understand the damage inflicted by cats in environments that never had a very efficient bird predator like cats (e.g. New Zealand and other islands). But in North America there's the Bobcat, Lynx, Ocelot, Margay, and Jaguarundi. Even without the domestic cat, birds would still get eaten in sizable numbers by cats. Sure there are a lot more domestic cats out there, but without civilization there would be a lot more wildcats out there eating birds.

Maybe the impact is simply that outside house cats exist in numbers that are not supportable for a normal wild predator due to the fact that house cats have meals provided by humans to sustain them. So house cat numbers don't reach an equilibrium with their prey the way a wild cat could. Either way I suspect that the impact on bird populations by domestic cats is often overstated.

GVIrish··on How to Stop Procrastinating on Your Goals by Using the “Seinfeld Strategy”
Seinfeld talks a bit more in depth about his writing strategy in a podcast he did with Tim Ferriss:

podcast: https://tim.blog/2020/12/08/jerry-seinfeld/ transcript: https://tim.blog/2020/12/09/jerry-seinfeld-transcript/

The basic gist is to set a small manageable goal every day, and that you're just looking for progress. You don't second guess it, or agonize, you just do it. After you've done it, that's when you review your work with a critical eye for improvement.

I don't really think what Seinfeld talks about there is so much about procrastination, it's about improving at your craft. You can improve at your craft every day while still procrastinating on your important to do list.

GVIrish··on Do kwon sent $80M a month to secret wallets?
It's stunning that people bought into Luna 2.0 after the first Luna token imploded. It didn't take a few years, it was what, a few weeks later?
GVIrish··on The human toll of Fallout 76’s launch
It's not about passion at all. Plenty of passionate work themselves to the breaking point and end up with crappy games or failing to release at all.

It's that making ambitious games is hard, and if your organization doesn't have good engineering practices, good project management, a clear achievable vision, a realistic timeline, and capable team members, you will have difficulty succeeding.

And even with less ambitious games, studios fail all the time for the same reasons. It's not just the AAA games.

Clearly a smaller team with a smaller scope has an easier time because as you increase headcount, communication overhead increases exponentially, and bigger teams are usually trying more technically difficult things than a smaller team would try to tackle.

GVIrish··on Behind the Ferrari and Lamborghini rivalry
Enzo Ferrari is such a unique character in automotive history. Not only did he piss off Ferruccio Lamborghini so much that he created a competing car company, he also enraged Henry Ford II so much that Ford decided to build the GT40 to beat Ferrari at the racetrack.

I just find it fascinating that this one man was such an arrogant jerk that built such a compelling brand that he inspired an entirely new company and all time great racing program just to get revenge against him.

GVIrish··on Behind the Ferrari and Lamborghini rivalry
Modern Ferraris are actually pretty reliable as supercars go. A few years ago Ferrari started included free maintenance for any new Ferrari for 7 years, so most owners are only really paying for tires and gas.

Not to say the cars are perfect, but most owners end up with relatively hassle-free ownership experiences these days.

GVIrish··on Pedal Me bans staff riders from wearing helmets for safety reasons
We already do. Crash safety standards, seatbelts, and mandatory air bags dramatically decrease injury and death in crashes, and numerous other safety mandates reduce the chance of a crash in the first place.
GVIrish··on Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did
Yeah I mean wash trading isn't that sophisticated, but it is wizardry to the people gettinf fooled by it. The algorithmic peg and other stablecoin shenanigans aren't necessarily that sophisticated either, and yet...
GVIrish··on Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did
It's not necessarily that people thinking 20% interest is safe is greedy. It's that many people don't have the financial literacy to understand that something paying that high of an interest rate is going to be risky. And that if someone 'guarantees' an interest rate of 20% then it's probably a con.

So many people just lack the basic literacy to recognize when something sounds too good to be true. And in the crypto market it's worse than that, because all of the memes and in-group behavior functions to drown out warranted skepticism.

GVIrish··on Tether starting to lose its peg too, after Terra did
The financial wizardry behind NFT's is the wash trading. A lot of average people looking to get into NFT's simply don't understand that many of the 'success stories' they see of people making big money on NFT's are just wash trading trying to lure in the marks.
GVIrish··on What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped
I think this could be a large part of it. Putin's Russia is rife with corruption and cronyism. Those two things can dramatically reduce the effectiveness of a military.

To start with, the yes-men problem means significant bad news is often buried not dealt with. It also results in the people who are the best at bs'ing and political manuevering being the ones who rise in the ranks. Your officer corps ends up being filled with people who did not optimize for military competency. Indeed General Shogyu, the Russian Minister of Defense, actually doesn't have a military background.

The corruption comes in with logisitical support. With significant levels of corruption you'll find that the amount of parts, munitions, fuel are not what you thought they were. Then you'll also probably have problems with the condition of the stuff you do have.

All of those things damage morale, competency, readiness, you name it. So when you actually have to go to war, you might find drastic shortfalls in battlefield performance.

GVIrish··on Unmasking Insubordination
Hahaha, my brain type the wrong word but it's funny so I'll leave it.
GVIrish··on Unmasking Insubordination
> It's clear that masking young, healthy adults who are tasked with the responsibility of rushing into oncoming bullets and missiles if need be, to mask themselves for going on now well into our third year of covid, which was never a particular threat for young people, is bad for morale. It's absurd and non-sensical.

No, what is absurd and nonsensical is the idea that soldiers can disobey orders that can directly compromise mission readiness. Sure, a 22 year old E-4 might not be likely to get seriously ill from covid, but there are plenty of enlisted soldiers, sailors, and airmen in their 40's and 50's who are more at risk. Having a few commanding officers or pilots or other key people end up being unavailable at a critical time can compromise the mission. It is a health countermeasure that is a minor inconvenience and not a difficult order to follow.

In the military there are many, many rules that might seem like they don't make sense but nevertheless are part of keeping discipline in the military. You can't wear your hat indoors. If you're driving on base and it's time for reverie you have to stop, get out of your car, and stand at attention. You're not allowed to drink alcohol on ships, even when you're off duty. How does it make sense for masking during a pandemic to be the hill to die on?

GVIrish··on Google Drive flags file only containing “1” for copyright infringement
The problem is that it hurts the perception of Google, particularly for enterprise customers. If the perception is that Google is unresponsive and gives customers no recourse to address obviously incorrect behavior of its automated systems, it makes it harder for enterprise customers to trust Google with their workloads.

A one off bug like this isn't the end of the world, but it fits into the larger pattern of how Google operates.

GVIrish··on Motorists have been stranded on a major interstate in Virginia since last night
> The primary issue this week is that this section of Virginia rarely sees snowstorms of this magnitude and further most DC residents have no idea how to drive in it (or know when to stay home).

That's not really it. We get snowstorms of this size once every 2 or 3 years, sometimes more. The problem is that somehow they didn't keep up with plowing and salting on that stretch of I-95, and that led to back-ups, and once that happened, there was no way to prevent ice from forming on the road. An exacerbating factor was that it was raining before the snow event, so they weren't able to pre-salt/brine the roads.

Notice that the major traffic jam was on I-95 South outside of the beltway, it wasn't on the outer loop, inside DC, or in Maryland even though the storm blanketed the area.

GVIrish··on Germany locks down unvaccinated people, as leaders plan to make shots compulsory
Sweden did worse than the other Scandinavian countries that enacted stricter Covid restrictions, including lockdowns. Sweden had roughly 5-7x as many deaths per capita as its immediate neighbors of Norway and Finland. Germany had less deaths per capita as well:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

GVIrish··on Attorney General orders unregistered crypto lending platforms to exit NY
It's not about contempt for defi, it's about applying the same level of regulatory oversight to defi that any other lending institution would have.

Truth of the matter is that in the financial industry there are always cutthroat and dishonest players trying to find a novel way to bilk people and yet more people trying to make a buck in a reckless manner that endangers consumer money.

Ultimately it's not about crippling the crypto industry, it's about preventing fraud irresponsibility. Other financial sectors have to do this, crypto should be no different.

GVIrish··on Attorney General orders unregistered crypto lending platforms to exit NY
The SEC is not trying to gate-keep wealth building, they're trying to protect consumers from fraudsters that feast on average consumers.

People act like all of these companies trying to cash in on the crypto gold rush are on the up and up, but historically when there's a gold rush, there are unscrupulous actors seeking to cheat and steal from unsuspecting marks.

We can throw up our hands and just say 'free market' and 'caveat emptor', but if too much money gets roped into a financial bubble, when it bursts it hurts everybody.

So right now there are crypto firms making all kinds of claims about how their assets are backed, or how consumer money is safe in their little DeFi account. It is, and should be in the SEC's (and the NYAG's) purview to regulate that.

GVIrish··on Bitcoin Addiction Hospital
When you think about it, the behavior isn't all that different from the way MLM converts act. MLM true believers would tell you it's the future of commerce or something and that it'll provide them financial independence or early retirement.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are actually making people money so it's different than the average MLM experience, but that makes the fervor all the more intense. Then there's all the shitcoins out there that people have lost money on.

GVIrish··on Write an SQL query builder in 150 lines of Python
This is what I think is the reasonable take on ORMs. If you're using one because you don't wanna learn SQL, that is a bad reason that will most likely result in more work in the long run.

But if you're using it to increase productivity for straightforward database calls, it can be a useful tool in a lot of scenarios.

GVIrish··on Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'
I was going off my memory of Bison populations, was way off there, thanks for the correction.

Either way, we'd still be better off if we dramatically reduced cattle farming and restored some or all of that habitat, particularly in South America.

GVIrish··on Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'
If you can't sell people on nuclear power, there is no way in hell you're gonna sell people on extreme taxes on oil. And even if you could, the base load problem will still be there.

Maybe if carbon were heavily taxed it would incentivize energy storage solutions but as of right now cost effective solutions are no viable yet.

GVIrish··on Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'
> Humans made space for their preferred ruminants, like beef, by displacing vast populations of other ruminants which have similar climate impact. I don't think most people fully appreciate just how large the natural population was before we started raising beef at scale. Even if we eliminated the beef herds, other ruminant species would immediately start filling the vacuum.

The problem with beef farming is that vast amounts of forest are burned or clear cut to allow cattle to graze. That alone raises the carbon footprint of beef. Grass on the pasture definitely doesn't sequester much carbon.

When we talk about wild ruminants, some regions that are used for cattle didn't have a bunch of ungulates on it before. South America for example didn't have huge herds of llamas roaming the lands.

In North America Bison herds were estimated to number about 10 million, but right now there's somewhere around 90 million cattle in the US. Even if cattle farming was drastically reduced, it's unlikely Bison numbers would return to their historic amount. Deer are the other part of the picture, and their numbers would sky rocket, given the opportunity. But that's where managing their numbers and reintroducing predators comes in.

GVIrish··on Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'
Humans don't always react rationally in code red situations though. Right now the irrational fear of nuclear power is stronger than the fear the average person or politician has of climate change. Doesn't mean that the climate change situation isn't dire.
GVIrish··on Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin
Sure heavy industry in space wouldn't pollute the Earth, but the physics for this just don't work out. How would you get all the produced goods back to Earth? Lots and lots of rockets that would then have to fly back up to space. The energy involved with that would be massive and cost prohibitive on the scale that it would need to be in order to replace any meaningful amount of heavy industry on Earth.

A space elevator could potentially be much better, but none of these private companies are pursuing space elevators.

Investing money into developing renewable energy power for heavy industry makes infinitely more sense, but isn't as cool as launching rockets. IIRC the Gates Foundation is investing in a solar powered method for smelting steel.

GVIrish··on Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin
Yeah I just read stuff like that and tune out because it so resolutely silly. It takes a huge amount of energy to get into orbit. Other than satellites and a space station, we have nothing in space. But we're gonna move heavy industry into space on any sort of foreseeable timeline? Sure, if we figure out anti-gravity or cold fusion or something.

Meanwhile, it is actually achievable to reduce the environmental impact of heavy industry and agriculture on Earth, reduce consumption, etc. It would also be a lot more impactful to invest billions into stuff like that instead of space access.

GVIrish··on Google parts with Cloud VP over his manifesto renouncing his antisemitism
Yeah I would be careful about drawing conclusions and assigning blame in this situation because it's hard to know all the factors leading to his dismissal. At the least, it sounds like there were problems with his leadership for months before this:

> Employees who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retaliation, said the frustration with Awadallah’s leadership style had been building for months, leading up to this week’s all-hands meeting, where employees confronted him about their discomfort with his manifesto, working with him and the leadership attrition of his reporting leaders.

At the very least, if your job is dev relations you've got to be somewhat adept at how to communicate publicly. It sounds like his manifesto didn't hit the mark.

And I'd have to question why he decided to do that in the first place? Did something force his hand? I feel like many people have had the experience of growing out of past prejudices but posting a manifesto about it is not something I've seen too often, certainly not in the workplace.

GVIrish··on Social Media Platforms as Common Carriers? [pdf]
But you're back to the problem of breaking the business model of these companies. If everything was opt-in, subscription-only, that would fundamentally change these platforms.

Even then, with zero moderation, feeds that people subscribe to could still get overwhelmed by trolling and vitriol.

GVIrish··on Open Source Farming Robot
Nah it doesn't take anywhere near that amount of time to raise some produce. Maybe a half hour total per week, if that.

Some stuff is easier to grow, some is harder, but for example I barely did anything on my strawberry patch this year other than picking them when they got ripe. I'd say I spent maybe 15 minutes a month on the strawberries.

Now if you're trying to grow a lot of stuff then the time investment might increase but most backyard gardens don't take up that much time once you've planted everything.

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