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Galanwe

4,098 karma · joined January 9, 2014

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Galanwe··on The dead economy theory
I thought about that a lot too, and in the end I think it just comes down to stupid economics: What do you want them to do with all this money?

1) Most top US tech companies are flooded of money. Everyone dumps money in the SP500.

2) This money has to go somewhere. You can't just redistribute it as dividends, otherwise it's an admission that you won't grow and giving you more money would be a 0 sum game.

3) So you have to invest it somehow, somewhere.

4) Obviously you can spend that money buying whatever company you can.

5) Once you've bought realistically enough, you just hire more, and people will think that there should be some kind of linear relationship between resources spent and revenue growth.

6) You can also do grand projects, like the metaverse, convert all you software to blockchains, become AI native, etc. and dump billions on these.

So essentially it's all about projecting growth and potential.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
> also don't control the ETF basket

The ETF is this case follows the index, so there's really no surprise.

> I would still probably go with the long put strategy

Just, don't. There is a world of complexity between a simple short, and entering an option contract with non linear pnl.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
What are you talking about? You don't need to touch anything about your ETF. You just have to short a single name on the side.

Also there is no liquidity issue, we're talking SP500 names here, you'll pay GC, which should be around 25bps as the other comment mentions.

Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
It's not just a short, it's a portfolio of X short + X long. It's effectively canceling perfectly.
Galanwe··on Danish Pension Blacklists SpaceX over 'Catastrophic Governance'
> I'd love is some sort of trade that would eliminate my exposure to SpaceX

You can just short SpaceX of an amount equivalent to its share of your SP500 holdings. You will have to pay borrowing costs though, but on something that liquid it will be very small.

Galanwe··on I made a million dollar product from my dorm room (2025)
I switched to ZMK circa 2024, and never looked back at QMK. I am the proud owner of a Corne wireless from typeractive, and it's such a beautiful product. The nice!nano are also a welcome addition.

There is a growing community of enthusiasts starting to sell ZMK powered boards from traditionally QMK based designs, so if you're interested, Etsy is where all of this is happening. MochuKeeb is a good example.

Thanks a lot for your part in the journey to modern, wireless custom keyboards Nick!

Galanwe··on New York passes pied-a-terre tax
Inheritance tax in practice is implemented above a certain threshold.

There is nothing wrong with striving to give a heads up in life to your kids, on the contrary, it's a core, visceral instinct of parents to do so, and removing that would be alienating.

There is a certain level of wealth though, where the "heads up" transforms to an unstoppable compounding lever.

France for instance has a progressive inheritance tax (starting at 5%, up to 45%), triggered for children inheriting at 100k€ per parent. In practice, 50% of the population inherits <70k€.

Also, the proposed Zucman tax in France for instance is triggered starting at 100M€ wealth. At these levels, a mere 2% risk free investment yields 2M€ annual income, this is enough to both compound and enjoy a very luxurious lifestyle. This level of wealth is unstoppably compounding, and that is why it is proposed to tax it.

If you don't, well you end up with a US situation, where disproportionate wealth (and thus power, influence) end up in the hands of random citizens with their own agendas, possibly (likely) orthogonal to the interests of the majority.

Galanwe··on Private equity bought America's essential services
> The irony is that PEs exist largely because of pension funds.

The irony goes way deeper than that.

A large part of PE clients are university endowment funds.

Harvard for instance has close to $60B in its endowment fund, 40% of which is invested in PE. At this point, Harvard is more an investment fund, with a university as side business.

Galanwe··on The real cost of owning a home
Your calculation is bogus, you are 1) assuming infinite money 2) assuming infinite time.

1) When you say "add sustained regular $2500/mo contributions", you forget that compared to buying your place, you also have to pay rent, most likely at the same amount you would pay back your mortgage assuming same quality of life. So either you have a free $2,500 to spare (in which case you could also have invested that amount in the buying case, or borrowed more), or you have $0 to invest.

2) You cannot just take the expected value of two different returns distribution and assume you would earn it in both cases. That would assume you have infinite time to wait for the average rate of returns to converge. If your life depends on said returns, you cannot just say "oh nevermind I'll wait another 15 years to withdraw". In your example, stock market returns are immensely more volatile than real estate.

Galanwe··on The real cost of owning a home
> If you take the money you'd use for a down payment and mortgage and invest it instead (after paying rent) you end up in about the same place.

That is not the right way to see it.

If you have the cash to buy upfront, then yes, real estate is not that good an investment, unless you have a loaded portfolio already and want to diversify a bit, get some high inflation hedge, etc.

The real value of buying a home is leverage. That is, most people cannot go to a bank and borrow $500k. The bank will just not make a blank loan like that without any idea of what you're going to do with it.

Buying a home though is well understood and borrowing is made relatively easy.

For most people, buying a home is the only way they have to actually get significant leverage from borrowing.

Galanwe··on Stop Advertising in Your Commits
Reminds me of 25 years ago, the default BitchX config on most distributions contained something that would crash the client with a message "I did not read the configuration".

If someone remembers what it was actually, that would really bring back memories

Galanwe··on White Rabbit – sub-nanosecond synchronization for large distributed systems
Used quite a bit by stock exchanges to ensure consumers and publishers have a reasonably aligned time.
Galanwe··on Memory has grown to nearly two-thirds of AI chip component costs
The 5090 is crap for inference. Unless you like dummy models, sure they will run at light speed. All the rage is MoE with 500B-1T weights nowadays.
Galanwe··on Converting an Integer to a Decimal String in Under Two Nanoseconds
The reverse, string to integer, has huge applications in quant finance.
Galanwe··on How to convert between wealth and income tax
No, he's disingenuously talking specifically about income tax, on interests.

Capital gains are on realized gains. Based on the difference between purchase price and selling price.

The thing is, wealthy people don't have interests bearing investments, because they don't need the cash right now. They either have unrealized gains (shares, real estate, etc), or interest bearing products wrapped in marked to market vehicules with reinvestment (ETFs, life insurance, mutual fund, etc).

Unrealized gains are not taxed as long as you don't sell them. If you need cash, you can borrow against them, so problem solved.

As for interest bearing investments, most companies nowadays use buybacks instead of dividends to avoid withholding taxes.

Galanwe··on How to convert between wealth and income tax
Hahaha this is so bogus.

Americans really struggle to understand how tax work outside of their country.

First, the whole premise of income to wealth tax equivalence is non sensical, because interests are rarely literally in the form of coupons/payments, but rather left as compounding value. This is the whole point of share buybacks, reinvested ETFs, etc; and Paul Graham knows that of course. If you are rich, you don't need the cash of your investments, so you don't want to trigger taxable events, so you are effectively at 0% tax rate and just let it compound.

> Currently the country with the highest marginal income tax rate is Denmark, at 60.5%

This is the most BS statement ever, and would only be believable to Americans with no understanding of how foreign country do taxes. Which is at best very naive of him, or highly disingenuous. This is because "tax" in the US is essentially employee paid, whereas most other countries split the bill between employer and employee at a higher proportion. The result is the same, but the employee part only is labeled "tax", the employer part being often called "contribution".

When comparing across countries, you have to look at the tax wedge (super gross to net), not the tax rate (gross to net).

And if you do that, well the US has a lower tax wedge than even the most generous European countries (Ireland).

In France for instance, the tax wedge is close to 70% for the higher bracket. Yes, that means if your employer pays $100, you get $30. And that's in a country with 20% VAT compared to US ~8%.

Not to mention, except super rich little little business-hub countries (Hong Kong, Singapore, Ireland, Malta, Cayman Islands, etc), pretty much all _developed_ countries have some form of wealth tax, it's just common sense.

Galanwe··on Show HN: Rmux – A programmable terminal multiplexer with a Playwright-style SDK
I don't get it as well, everything mentioned in the readme is already trivially possible with tmux or zellij
Galanwe··on GitHub confirms breach of 3,800 repos via malicious VSCode extension
The breach is about internal repositories, not user repositories.
Galanwe··on Apparently Google hates us now
Well LLMs are trained on text influenced by SEO, and they use search tools also weighted by SEO. So SEO is not irrelevant I guess ?
Galanwe··on OpenBSD 7.9
You can often build generic dongles for pretty much anything on the cheap if that really matters to you.

E.g. I use the Seeed Studio XIAO nRF52840 for my BLE keyboard.

Galanwe··on OpenBSD 7.9
I use it on my personal laptop, essentially because I like how slim and simple it is.

Packaging is simple, kernel development and upgrade is simple, etc. Also the kernel code itself is written in a style I like, it's to the point, no useless abstractions, no fuss. I prefer it even amongst other BSDs I tried (netbsd and free*lbsd/dragonfly).

It just feels nice to be able to understand most of your system. It's not as fully featured as Linux, but there is a sense of understanding your system that is refreshing. A bit like if you're on vacation in a small and cute village where life is mundane and calming. At least that's how I feel with it. Mileage may vary.

Galanwe··on Show HN: Files.md – Open-source alternative to Obsidian
Right, but most people want to be able to consult their notes on the go, quickly add items from their phone, etc.
Galanwe··on Remove .zig Files from Bun
> Security risks: None. This is dead-code removal

Thanks Claude! XD

Galanwe··on Open Source Resistance: keep OSS alive on company time
> What would be the general stance if I for example SSH'd into something I own and worked from there?

That would definitevely count as company time and company device usage.

Galanwe··on The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
Around $35-45k if willing to use it comfortably (fast to answer, large context) as coding agent.
Galanwe··on Open Source Resistance: keep OSS alive on company time
> in Germany the employer owns all source code created during working hours by default.

Same in most countries I worked in. Generally it's not just the business hours, but also any kind of device used. If code got edited at one point on a company laptop, or during office hours, then it's the company's.

Most intellectual jobs in quant finance will also routinely enforce an intellectual property clause in their work contract, which extends appropriation to anything resulting from the knowledge you acquired at the company. Not sure if that is enforceable in practice, but it's always there.

Galanwe··on The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
What does it mean "dominated"?

How would your life change if your country became the second wealthiest instead of the first?

This is a ranking and competition no other country in the world gives ... about.

Galanwe··on The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
This.

I dont know what the benchmarks are supposed to represent, but to me Kimi K2.6 is indistinguishable from e.g Opus 4.6.

Galanwe··on C++26: Standard Library Hardening
I think unfair criticism happens because of decades of standard committee clinging to power, not listening to actual community feedback and proposals, and just straight on systematically favoring its own research toys WG instead.

So yes, the more time goes on, the more anything coming out of the SC receives biased negative feedback.

Galanwe··on Claude Platform on AWS
I dont think this is about billing as other comments mentioned. AWS bedrock already does that.

I think AWS proposes to host actual agents, meaning you can customize their MCP servers, have them fetch and issue arbitrary requests, etc. Essentially a hosted minimal harness.

This is very much needed, as a form of "hosted claude code", allowing you to actually have the agent code, push, test from e.g. your phone.

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