HFguy

Did the person you are responding to actually say "They were hiding their behavior... Therefore we don't need regulation?"

Does anyone say that?

How would you pay for university? How would you buy a house? How would a company build a factory?

Adding to this, the key is what these market actors purchase in place of the bonds that were sold.

They shift out and buy more risky assets. Corporate bonds, equities.

And then next the people that held the corps/equities that were sold buy still more risky assets (e.g., speculative equities, VC) and so on (e.g., crypto).

My view, having watched some super wealthy guys up close, is the formula to make a lot of money in one life time is: (1) Be skillful at whatever you do + (2) Take a lot of risk

Keep in mind there is a survivorship bias at work.

So the really rich guys, they usually do have considerable skill and ability. But they also have taken big risk after big risk and it has, more or less, always paid off for them.

It is all they know...the coin flips going their way. So they are some combo of they are pre-wired to take big risks and/or have been conditioned by experience that the risks just always pay off for them.

So they will just keep taking big risks time after time. There is no "take the money off the table".

The question I always have is it more (A) pre-wired or (B) Good luck has conditioned them over and over. Don't know.

As you point out, you see not just SBF doing this, but Zuck and Elon and the list goes on...

FWIW, I was able to enter all the buildings I tried recently. Did not notice any restriction.

As alum, I don’t think any of the buildings are particularly great. Lots of things to love about the university. The physical campus was always kinda meh (but functional).

I don’t see it. For example, they are one of the few of the top universities that don’t do legacy admissions.

What are your examples?

"find he delirious lying on the field alone"

Really, really sorry about that. We have similar but different issues with one of our children. I understand the constant stress that something could happen. I wish you the best of luck.

It is very easy to believe.

I could have flipped a coin, gone long or short at beginning of this year.

I would have had a 50% chance of outperforming the market by 40% this year (given it is down roughly 20%).

BTW, data costs also too low.

Just a BB terminal around 30k and a lot of extra data from BB costs extra (can be 200-300k per additional product).

For quant strategy probably looking at 500k up to 2M for data initially. And you will likely be at a disadvantage to existing firms that have been collecting data for years.

And that is at the low end. Spent many millions per year for 1 strategy at last large firm. And that was small fraction of total firm spend.

This is actually way too optimistic.

Your first 1-2 seed investors will:

- Only pay 1 and 10 (1% fixed fee and 10% of PNL)

- They will also get ownership of the actual fund management firm and will get that in the form of 20% of REVENUE (not equity, revenue, think about that)

This is one reason new fund formation is way down. The economics are bad for years. Know a bunch of HF people that started vc-backed tech firms instead.

The other reason is 10+ year run where stocks, bonds, private firms and real estate just went up. No need for diversifying return streams.

I’ll bite.

One impact here would be to reduce future investment in fossil fuels which will increase future prices. Because why would you invest?

So setting up for future higher prices.

"...calling me a lair..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DZKwCVKneg

Sorry, found the typo funny. Not trying to antagonize anyone this morning.

"Is it generally considered funny and/or OK to shit on others misfortune while laughing about it? Bragging about how much better it is for you that others feel pain about something?"

No it isn't. I'm American btw. Sorry, some people are jerks.

It is from IVF.

Nice...I would give you an award if I could.

Thanks for the suggestion.

I think this problem is just a matter of degrees with any summary statistic.

You throwing away information in an attempt to synthesize an insight.

Ya...good question.

I don’t understand the scope of research and topics the IEEE publishes. I would think it would be electrical engineering topics and things tangential to that.

Anybody have any insight?

Very cool

This is just what we have in the USA today. Capitalism can work, but what we have is lopsided in terms of power balance. Workers should have more power and leverage but that has been eroded over time.

The volatility you describe is part of economic systems in general and hard to get away from. While it seems like a lot, it is actually far, far less than we had in the 1800s and prior to that.

You wrote --- > "People have been saying that for decades. And in fact the opposite is happening. Visa/MC raising rates. PayPal raising rates. Volume shifting to more expensive BNPL."

He wrote--- > "CC companies are raising their rates because their margin is soon to be compressed."

He's talking about fees for transactions. Not rates. They are raising rates to make up for the lost fees.

We aren't in a recession. The broad job market is still way too tight.

But it is coming. It is being engineered by the Fed to reduce inflation. Probably sometime next year.

"while NY may have slightly more total dollars invested"

NYC is 50% higher in terms of total VC dollars.

This is important point. Apples and oranges.

I think a lot of institutional investors may question this also. It isn't a great look. Did the stock not fall yesterday while the market was flat?

Short answer is some combination of (1) That requires work and then they would have to explain to people and (2) People aren't asking for it.

If you want to roll your own, you can use free data from Yahoo and FRED and get there pretty quick.

You should also consider tax implications. For example, trading equities short-term is awful and PL taxed at income rate. Compare that to buying real estate which has a 101 ways to avoid paying taxes.

The inherit risk in a given asset should not be a constraint.

You can simply lever bonds, equities or most other investments by a variety of means. For example you can get way more risk in 2-year US gov securities via futures than would be sensible.

Likewise, you can de-risk an asset by holding cash alongside that asset.

This is great point I often make. Not many people take this into consideration. Now, inflation has been lower than 4% for last 10-20 years. But the point stands.

The rates markets (bonds) have had historic 6-month declines.

And other debt instruments price off of these. Not sure the economic fallout has been fully felt yet.

To compare to other periods, gov debt instruments increased in value during 2000, 2008 and 2020.