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Hasz

2,284 karma · joined October 4, 2016

https://ethan.id ethan@ethanmyers.rs

My personal views, not that of my employer or any other affiliations.

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Hasz··on The Future, Made in China
The article explictly mentions trying to export it via belt and road, which is why I bring it up.
Hasz··on The Future, Made in China
I'm sorry to hear you feel it rings hollow. As you know, the secretary of state is Marco Rubio, who is appointed and confirmed by the senate (bipartisian-ish, I might add).

I am no fan of Kushner, but saying he runs US foreign policy is generously misleading at best.

Hasz··on The Future, Made in China
I am not Chinese, but the CCP loves to insinuate that the middle kingdom is 5000 years of uninterrupted rule. As we both know, that is hilariously untrue.

> Are you really that bullish on the United States a century from now?

Yes, of course, and I am happy to put my money where my mouth is based on asset allocations. I can also freely invest in the outside world, without CCP capital controls. I can freely insult the US president, congress, and judiciary by name, and not worry about disappearing for 6 months. I don't need a cadre of police to throw an old man who advocated for democracy in jail in HK either.

> greedy elites robbing the country blind, buying elections and achieving corruption at a scale that makes "democracy" seem rather unattractive entirely.

ah, come on now. We both know who comes out worse in that scenario, the princelings make Kushner look like a saint.

Hasz··on The Future, Made in China
> Common sense says countries rise and fall in cycles

Oh common sense. If you believe all countries are autocracies, maybe. But to examine the trajectory of the US on a "Chinese timescale", the US rejected autocratic rule, built a system that decentralizes power, uses ambition to check ambition, and provides for frequent, peaceful transfer of power. To an autocratic Chinese bureaucrat, this is all wasteful shortsightedness, but allows the US to pivot, change, adapt, etc at very fast pace, at least for government.

I do not believe the autocratic bargain that China has made with its people is stable, lasting form of government, even as they seek to export it elsewhere. The fundamental trade is individual voice in politics for breakneck growth and dramatically increased standard of living. However, if you are one of the few young people born in China recently, what breakneck growth? A vicious gauntlet of schooling, the great filter in the gaokao, only to work for 996 company until you cannot anymore.

We can see what happened in places like Venezuela or Argentina when the government breaks their end of the bargain, as will likely happen to other autocratic states.

Hasz··on Europe's fires are just the start
I recently read capitalist realism by Fisher, and I think it is impossible (or very close to it, barring major war/plague/thanos snap) for something like degrowth to be seriously considered. There are simply waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to many incentives at multiple levels and across traditional alliances against it.
Hasz··on Read This Before You Buy That TV Streaming Stick
Hey that’s pretty smart! Fradulent, but very smart. I was honestly expecting botnet.

I expect many cameras of “dubious” origin are used for similar tasks, same with most “smart” devices with sufficient horsepower.

Hasz··on Europe's fires are just the start
Climate change will almost surely increase growing seasons and agricultural productivity in higher latitudes (for some crops). It will be extremely crop and cultivar dependent, I expect lots of R&D to go into crops that can deal with wider vairety, and generally hotter, conditions.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4974

Hasz··on The Productivity Mirage
The issue is recognition. Everyone can see and admire shiny tools. Very few people can look at an empty editor or stub and see a good new product/feature. So lots of focus on tools, because lots can see it, and little focus on the what, because it is obscure, difficult to see, etc by most.

I like to marie kondo my tools -- if it is not bringing me joy to use or making my life easier, I yeet it. If it is, it stays.

Hasz··on Europe's fires are just the start
bah, all is not lost.

Climate change will create winners and losers. Losers -- anyone on the equator or within the the tropic of cancer/capricorn. Winners -- those outside those regions or with enough $ to adapt.

Give me solar geoengineering, 2x increase in R&D spending on reducing fossil fuel usage, and funding for direct carbon capture (and a financial incentive to do it).

It's going to get worse before it gets better sadly.

Hasz··on Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
the company, sure. The stock or people who own in, less clear.
Hasz··on OpenNode – Bitcoin Payment Processor
Very impressed at net cost. I used to run a small ecom business targeting total prices in the range of $3-10. At $3, payment processing is nearly 11-12% of costs, which is absurd, more if you amortize the occasional chargeback/fraud. Lightning can do it for <<0.1% net cost even at the low end, which is incredible. There are plenty of these kinds of vendors on eBay, Aliexpress etc that would be willing to adopt with a bit of help.

For whoever posted, your cost calculator should be first thing on the page, and you "How we calculated this number" link is broken

Hasz··on Apple defeats liability for not scanning iCloud for CSAM
Because it isn't about CSAM, IMO. You see this with plenty of social issues, notably firearms ownership. The claim is we will restrict/license/outlaw xyz for the kids, but really, a data-drive approach would have focused on different things entirely (eg additional behavioral health services for kids, suicide prevention etc)

The same technology/access used for CSAM identification can find copyrighted files, materials that don't support current government, etc. Full E2E encryption seriously raises the cost of mass surveillance, and why the US government fights it at every turn going back 30 years.

Hasz··on Ask HN: Is it just me, or is software buggier across the board?
feature velocity >> feature stability.

Core libs/software have never been better, eg I have had much better luck with stuff like ffmpeg and virsh than ever before.

If it has a UI and targeted at consumers though? Bug city.

Hasz··on Ask HN: Is it just me, or is software buggier across the board?
Holy smokes is the browser versions of PPT, OneNote, word etc buggy, I could not believe that was an actual released product. Random page crashes, refresh loops, etc, all for the crime of using firefox on a mac. The bottom of their test matrix sure, but not exactly netscape on windows XP.
Hasz··on Ask HN: What Are You Working On? (July 2026)
Here's an idea for you -- property evaluation. It's not hyper-specific to your monitoring system, but it would be very interesting to understand before buying a house:

1. How loud the neighbhorhood is over time periods, eg sat night vs tues morning 2. air quality, enviromental factors, etc. 3. What percentage of vehicles/people/devices are net-new (over a time period) versus recoccuring, as identified by MAC.

I would personally pay in the low hundreds to understand overall loudness levels for a house I am about to buy, although I am fairly sensitive to sound. My wife would probably pay for the new-new people metrics.

IMO, you could charge a per-device report and deploy a unit for a week, much like a home inspector report. It would give you a revenue stream on the buy or sell side, and let you own your devices as you iterate on the sensor package.

Anyways, just my 2c, gl with your PoC.

Hasz··on Spider venom kills varroa mites without harming honeybees
found this showing the grooming process, apparently actually getting the mite is tricky!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpdmDr7da6U

Hasz··on 30papers.com – Ilya's 30 essential ML papers, in a beginner friendly format
> anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity

close enough imo

any apparently 400 voters too.

Hasz··on GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
Agentic loops are being promoted by the same people selling tokens, abstracting away the cost per token, and doing everything in their power to obfuscate costs.

I think a senior dev/architect + some good models is still the goated combination.

Generating code and building features, even before AI, was never the issue. Stability, knowing what to build when, and boring business problems (licensing, distribution, sales, etc) were the limits.

Hasz··on Should DayQuil Be Legal?
> So the only ingredient that’s doing anything in that bottle of DayQuil makes up just 2% of the bottle: the roughly 8 grams of acetaminophen

this argument makes very little sense. Plenty of very potent drugs are in the single digit mg range in a tablet that weights hundreds of mg.

More importantly, as always, it is a problem of incentives. There is no strong, commercial entity focused on removing ineffective drugs from the market, but plenty of commercial pressure to keep them. The FDA has zero incentive to clean house. The magic hand of the market is supposed to be consumers choosing not to buy these drugs because they are ineffective, but for many reasons (choice, placebo effect, basic scientific literacy) this does not happen.

I don't know what the most effective entity is. I cannot personally imagine a commercial structure to support this, but perhaps one could be built.

Hasz··on Great Salt Lake Tracker
Disappointing to see you downvoted on hacker news of all places. Cmon, have some ambition.

A bunch of people here have no idea how bad the water crunch is. The oogala has been overdrawn for decades, and is a major source of agriculture water for much of the west and Midwest.

CO, UT, AZ, CA, NV etc all dramatically overdraw the Colorado river snopack and will have a reckoning soon enough. The west is also prone to mega droughts, making the problem much worse

Building a $100bn pipeline to irrigate the west absolutely should happen. We can pump it with miles of solar power, build enormous desalination plants, dramatically increase agricultural productivity and provide water to fight the heating effects of global warming.

Hasz··on Why I Stopped Arguing with People
bah, bait.

> You Can Only Change Yourself

This is a good reason to argue with people! Forcing yourself to look critically at your own positions via debate is a key self-improvement method. Simply not engaging and never having a back-n-forth is no way to improve. Feedback, critical self-evaluation, and more feedback.

Ofc, that's not encouragement to flame people on the internet or in-person.

Hasz··on Never Give Them Your Face
An unpopular opinion for this site probably, but all the same arguments apply to gun control and civil liberties in general.

In the united states, the first amendment (what this post is primarily concerned about) and the second amendment are equally important rights, and we should be just as judicious about applying restrictions to the second as the first.

Instead, you see attacks on the 2nd in the name of "safety, verification, age assurance. A small step to protect children". The exact same playbook used against civilian gun ownership will be rolled out against the first amendment, the 4th amendment, etc.

Civil rights and protections should be expanding, not contracting, and the primary focus point for the last 30 years (and the playbooks that will be used elsewhere) are being tested on the second amendment.

Hasz··on Pledging another $400k to the Zig software foundation
Mitchell Hashimoto, talk about putting your money where your mouth is. What a cool dude. Much respect!
Hasz··on 10Gb/s Ethernet: switching to a Broadcom SFP+ module
you should be putting in conduit -- either smurf tube, emt, sch40, or similar. can pull whatever, and more importantly, if a cable is damaged by an overly zealous gorilla during installation, it can easily be fixed and replaced.
Hasz··on Launch HN: Intuned (YC S22) – Build and run reliable browser automations as code
In terms of ICP, there is a wonderful underbelly of scraper/drop/deliberate automation evasion resellers for basically every consumer product niche -- think shoes, watches, anything limited-edition, etc. These people mostly are building bots and constantly in a coy cat and mouse game with the sites they buy from to avoid blocks.

Not only could this help them keep up with the new security features and redesigns, but they are more than willing to pay for a product that meaningfully improves overall success rate. You should look on twitter/discord for these kinds of groups, they are "reseller"-type communities.

Hasz··on Cleaning up after AI rockstar developers
I think this is fine? Code used to be very expensive to generate, now it is cheap. Building glue logic between well-defined, well-documented APIs has never been easier or faster. There is a time and place for throwaway code that quickly automates a task. It is fast food to fine dining -- not everything needs to be a Michelin star experience.

However, as always, AI usage is a matter of taste. Including your style rules in the prompt matters. Introduce new paradigms/tools/code into the main codebase because they solve a business problem, not because they are technically interesting. Careful development does not break 7 things to introduce one new feature, etc.

Hasz··on Failing grades soar with AI usage, dwindling math skills in Berkeley CS classes
new session. It's easy to lead a model into getting the response you want, deliberately or accidently.

The point is not to literally win an argument (it doesn't matter), it is to use the model like a partner to poke holes in your own understanding. Once it's poked a hole, it has served its purpose. Plus, you eventually run out of context or the model trails off into babbble.

Hasz··on Failing grades soar with AI usage, dwindling math skills in Berkeley CS classes
Advertising is fine (not great), especially when highly targeted and relevant. Spam, misleading, or predatory advertising is not.
Hasz··on Failing grades soar with AI usage, dwindling math skills in Berkeley CS classes
Counterpoint, I think this is true for some archetypes of people, but certainly not everyone. I personally use it like the socratic method. I am an intermediate user, I spend a ton of time with LLMs at work and personally, both prompting and letting some crappy agents try to automate boring work. I primarily use Gemini and ChatGPT models, along with some Chinese smaller weight models (eg qwen) locally.

If you treat the model like an excellent bluffer, it has never been more fun to challenge a model. To me, there is something deeply intellectually satisfying about "proving" it incorrect, and I like being deeply critical of what the model spits back out. I find that refinement process (with the constant sycophancy turned down in the system prompt) creates a really good loop of critical evaluation that would be hard to get in anywhere else. You can treat it just like the Socratic method, but instead of a benevolent teacher, you get a probabilistic bullshit artist. Lots of fun, highly recommend.

Hasz··on Meta workers can opt out of being tracked at work up to 30 min
save 70% of net and (try to) reject the hedonistic treadmill
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