Hedgemaster

Hey, thanks, good point. Indeed there are quantum-resistant ledgers, those would survive the quantum computing apocalypses :)

Regarding the regulation, I should have definitely mentioned it.. Some countries (like the UK) get really tough on cryptos.

tbh I am more into options trading than crypto.. I know that Binance is facing an increased scrutiny worldwide, in some countries (like the UK) it's outright banned..

The key thing to keep in mind regarding Binance is that there is a HUGE counterparty risk, so if Binance goes bust all your positions won't be recovered.. This lack of safety is a major concern for both investors and regulators. Plus Binance was completely non-transparent where their capital buffer would come from..

1. It's indeed not a trivial task to time a market crash. However, most recent crashes consisted out of series of crashes. So that fact would give retail investors some time to buy protection in terms of put options for example.

2. The approach you suggested would expose everyday investors to 2 risks: losing part of their savings and restricting their upside by cutting their positions. What could be an alternative way is to keep all their equity positions and write out-of-the-money covered calls, so they could collect the premium. And there are many more ways investors could hedge their risks with options.

Just in case: it was NOT a financial advise :)

Good point, in addition Robinhood is highly leveraged, they raised 3.5b in 2021 at the face value of 5.0b, so the new shareholders would implicitly pay the price for that aggressive borrowing..

Some reasons to be cautious.. and again, this is NOT a financial advice.

Disclaimer: the following is NOT a financial advice!

In case IF the mentioned pattern persists, it would be possible to make daily gains on S&P: sell in the morning, buy back in the afternoon.

In addition (the article didn't mention) the sentiment around particular stock or index can be derived from its options prices. Therefore, even for those who have no intention of trading options, options-related data can be of great use.

Hi! Thanks a lot for sharing the study.

I agree with your point. But it's also important to note that options trading can be both lucrative and risk-mitigating. For example, how would everyday investors protect themselves from a potential market crash?? They cannot bet against the market since short-selling is out of reach for the majority of retail investors.. But with options they certainly can. In fact, people can even benefit if stock prices stay essentially the same.

Indeed, it's very likely that most retail investors currently lose money while trading options. I traded options professionally in the fund for more than 8 years. There are numerous technicalities that people should be aware of. Otherwise, they are likely to make some basic mistakes that no professional trader would. For example, when someone owns a deep in-the-money call and the ex-dividend date is approaching, that someone should exercise his/her call and buy an identical out-of-the-money put. To my despair I found out (from Reddit options trading groups) that most people are completely unaware of that and keep on making basic mistakes, that in turn accumulate and cause retail traders to lose big. So essentially most ppl do not lose because the were wrong (let's say about the direction of Intel post-earnings release), but because the basic trading mistakes turn profits into losses.

Sadly, no retail brokerage offers any meaningful support to retail traders, be it Charles Schwab or Robinhood. It's also true to say that mistakes of retail traders amplify the wins of professional traders: in the past retails were called "dumb money" but now industry insiders refer to them as "free money".

At Strikes we aim to level the playing field for the retail options trader, by making sure ppl stay aware of all potential pitfalls and avoid making basic trading mistakes. We are still busy finalizing the app but this is the link to our waiting list: https://www.trystrikes.com/

Would love to hear your feedback!

Hey, thanks for the comment! Options trading is suitable for bulls and bears. Even for those who think that stock prices would stay exactly the same, they can still can benefit from options trading.

P.S. your comments are shown as "dead", I suggest you to contact the administrator to sort it out..

I have been trading options professionally and am aware how market makers operate. Would appreciate if you could share with me the concerns you have.

Just in case, GME & AMC experienced a short squeeze in the beginning of the year and some short-selling hedge funds indeed lost a fortune because of that. But market makers themselves do not get any exposure (they stay delta-neutral in our language). Yet, I would appreciate to know if I'm missing smth

pls note a difference between a 'logical qubit' and a 'physical qubit'.. currently they don't have even 1 logical qubit, and for quantum computer to be of any use it should have >10k logical qubits...

well, Google's CEO also made a furore by stating that in 10 years quantum computer would break currently used encryption.. But guess what? In 10 years Sundar won't be with the company anyway ;)

One notable fact is that Intel has announced plans to transform itself into a chip manufacturer for other companies, in addition to using foundries to make its own processors.

The company is in early talks to buy GlobalFoundries, which is a major American chip foundry.

Thanks for your comment, but could you pls elaborate what you mean? Do you have any evidence of market manipulation or it's more like feeding into conspiracy theories?

I do agree that Fed should probably be more careful with money printing, that might indeed contribute to a bubble formation.. but market manipulation is a punishable offense in the US. And what did you mean by "behind-the-scenes trading"? Dark pools??

Well, if someone lacks any ambitions, Europe would work, but then again more like North-Western Europe, not the eastern lands.. But otherwise it's much easier to start your company in the US in terms of red tape, funding and talent pool.. but many Americans either don't realize or fail to appreciate that.

Thanks for such an insightful comment, wasn't aware of that!!

Very good point.

Since you made a comparison to prediction markets, let's focus on earnings release dates. Earnings release is an event that's known to happen on a certain date in the future, just like some political election (only few companies don't disclose their future earnings dates in advance, Berkshire Hathaway is amongst them).

There are plenty of studies researching option prices and the stock moves post earnings release, this is just one of them: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/assets/documen...

The conclusion of that particular study is that option prices prior to the earnings release date are helpful for learning about the future stock price volatility.

True, I still like it because it's probably the only benchmark focused exclusively on retail investors..

VIX index can provide a more general picture: https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/

Fear always trumps greed coz FOMO is also a fear;)

Hi! Thank you very much for such an in-depth (albeit somewhat pessimistic) comment. 1. Making educated predictions are the essence of investing. As a professional options trader, don't you agree? Just for the record, I am an options trader myself. 2. It is possible to control your exposure, so taking control of your options does make sense. 3. "Years and years":) Ok, is there a correlation between a number of years spent in the financial industry and investment performance? Sure thing, Berkshire doesn't look that bad, but in truth many professionally managed funds are simply burning people's life savings. 4. Why would anyone believe? People should try and see. First on a paper trading account and then with actual cash. 5. All the examples you made are translatable into an everyday language, for example "IV smile" can be translated into "market sentiment", etc. People are being discouraged by the excessive jargon and unnecessary overcomplication. I understand some people are afraid of creative destruction, but c'est la vie.. 6. You praised Tastytrade(!) Yet before you said "you would never trade with your mobile". Their founder (Tom Sosnoff) indeed sometimes shares good material, the problem is that sometimes he says something that's good for him only, so take his advice with great caution, these are 2 links: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=5658429654182670 https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/ooio8q/does_anyo...

And yeah, tastyworks has been sold to IG Group (British CFD provider) so now they are in a mainstream gambling ;)

Hi, thanks for a fair point. Analytical tools are indeed quite expensive but our purpose is to make them free and comprehensible to the general public.

Hi, thanks for the heads up, will resolve that issue. You meant that the stock prices can be predicted from the options patterns right? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

thx for your comment, jargon is indeed preventing everyday people from benefiting from options trading..

thanks, that's the whole idea, to level the playing field for the general public so everyday people can also benefit from options trading

Hi Steven, thanks for sharing your opinion! Since options' underlying are stocks, as such value is being exchanged.. agree, no goods being produced but the same in stock investing, the purpose is a speculative wealth creation. I do agree that outcome is not completely under your control but with options people can minimize their risks.

Options trading can be lucrative when people use the right tool. But ironically in most cases they don't turning it into a lottery..