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JackFr

14,997 karma · joined May 16, 2012

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JackFr··on Google's Moonshot Factory Falls Back Down to Earth
> 'true' (unrestrained) R&D is only possible if you have a monopoly

* Bell Labs

* IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center

* Xerox Parc

I always felt when DoJ was suing Microsoft for antitrust the best evidence of their monopoly was that Microsoft Research had started spitting out good work.

I think you're onto something wrt Google.

JackFr··on Google's Moonshot Factory Falls Back Down to Earth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scam

A scam, or a confidence trick, is an attempt to defraud a person or group after first gaining their trust.

Other terms for scam (aside from confidence trick) include con, con game, confidence game, confidence scheme, ripoff, stratagem, finesse, grift, hustle, bunko (or bunco), swindle, flimflam, gaffle, and bamboozle.

JackFr··on Magic UI: UI Library for Design Engineers
Trying to type in search box causes screen covering popup with a ton of latency, and typing in that box has crazy bad keyboard lag.

Not a persuasive demo.

JackFr··on Are commercial "third places" a dying breed?
The bargain used to be, I overpay for coffee because I’m renting the seat.

Without a seat, why am I paying?

JackFr··on Shipbreaking
> where they run the ships aground at high tide.

Read an article about this years ago. It seems they had special pilots to do this. Like wetting the bed on purpose, trained ships captains had a very hard time intentionally running ships aground.

JackFr··on Wasp-193B, a giant planet with a density similar to that of cotton candy
I love SPECULOOS as a network of robotic telescopes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculaas

JackFr··on Dymaxion Car
Fuller is probably one of the more overrated intellectuals of the 20th century. His greatest talent lay in self-promotion. He was not a competent engineer, architect or scientist. His one good idea wasn't really his (geodesic domes had been patented in Germany decades earlier) and he required the services of an actual architect to get anything done with them.
JackFr··on AlphaFold 3 predicts the structure and interactions of life's molecules
Sorry, I don’t mean to be dense - do you mean you don’t trust AlphaFolds structures or NMRs?
JackFr··on Can turning office towers into apartments save downtowns?
Opening windows on high floors is great -- you don't need screens cause most urban insects stay much closer to ground level. (Although admittedly I haven't opened any windows higher than 20)
JackFr··on The Rise of the Forever Renter Class
While it's true that Japan and Italy are the only two major developed countries suffering actual decline, basically all of the big wealthy countries are experiencing fertility below replacement.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...

Fertility, total births per woman 2021

Australia 1.7

EU 1.5

UK 1.6

Japan 1.3

Korea 0.8

US 1.7

Replacement fertility is estimated at 2.1. Countries with below replacement fertility are growing based on immigration.

JackFr··on The Rise of the Forever Renter Class
Yeah, significant portion of the developed world is shrinking not growing.

Regardless, housing demand is more directly influenced (and influences) net household formation, and it is very regional and dependent on regional economies. There are rust belt communities in the US which suffered decades of net negative household formation even as the US population ticked up. Detroit and Baltimore had peak populations in 1950. While many would consider portions of them blighted and undesirable, that was more the result of and less the cause of the population decline.

JackFr··on The fishy death of Red Lobster
I don't have the books of Red Lobster, but the economic rationale is that if the enterprise is continuing to persistently lose money, it is destroying capital not increasing it.

It's likely that the real estate that the Red Lobsters were built on was worth more than the entire enterprise. In such a case the implication is that the ongoing operation is negatively valued. Splitting the real estate off and valuing the restaurants at zero is a rational action -- and good for the economy.

Put a mom and pop restaurant on the spot. Or a nail salon. Or anything that can justify its costs.

JackFr··on The fishy death of Red Lobster
Please. Those folks have a canine dental hygienist on staff. They don't go to walk in clinics.
JackFr··on The fishy death of Red Lobster
Chipotle took on McDonalds as an early investor, used McDonald's investment to quickly expand from 16 to 500 stores. Chipotle had a tremendously successful IPO, which they used to fund further growth. McDonalds, who was always a minority investor, divested themselves from Chiptole earning $1.5 billion on a $450 million investment. It trades on the NYSE as CMG and has a market cap of 88 billion.
JackFr··on Takeaways from the Jane Street bond prospectus
Honestly 40-50 years ago all of the big investment banks were partnerships and operated in much the same way. Partners owned equity and by today's standards they were relatively risk averse because it was their money to lose, with no stock price to pump up.
JackFr··on The Myth of the Second Chance
B is creditworthy. That’s why I leant it to him. If I have an issue with liquidity I go to the discount window of my central bank and they will lend me the money.

That’s why central banks typically make the rules about reserves, etc.

JackFr··on The Myth of the Second Chance
The 90% is not diamonds, it's loans I've made.

I have two customers A & B. A has $1000 on deposit. B has $500 on deposit. I have $1500 in my safe. Assets = $1500, Liabilities = $1500.

B borrows $500, which for simplicity's sake he deposits in his account.

Now A has $1000 on deposit, B has $1000 on deposit. I have $1500 cash in my safe and a note from B for $500. Assets = $2000, Liabilities = $2000.

I just created $500. It's really that simple.

JackFr··on Alice's adventures in a differentiable wonderland
NAND gates by themselves are kind of dull, but it's pretty cool what you can do with a billion of them.
JackFr··on Husband and wife outed as GRU spies aiding bombings and poisonings across Europe
Gary Oldman was a lot of it.

I had read and enjoyed the first two books. After the first couple of episodes I had to admit I was watching it for Gary Oldman more than anything else. I'd watch just a supercut of him expressing disdain for and disappointment with his subordinates.

JackFr··on The Myth of the Second Chance
Fractional reserve banking. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking
JackFr··on NASA's Voyager 1 Resumes Sending Engineering Updates to Earth
I forget where I saw the headline, but it's still funny "Voyager: Please let me die. NASA: No."
JackFr··on Why I'm Leaving New York City [video]
We are so thankful that you left.

It amuses me when people who leave NYC (and SF I suppose) feel the need to give a litany of exaggerated complaints about what a hellhole it is.

I’ve lived in Manhattan 30 years (after growing up in a suburb) and raised three children here and loved it.

JackFr··on US Air Force says AI-controlled F-16 has been dogfighting with humans
Well sure. No one wants to lose their job to AI.
JackFr··on US Air Force says AI-controlled F-16 has been dogfighting with humans
Wouldn’t AI bombers simply be better cruise missiles?
JackFr··on Show HN: I made a new sensor out of 3D printer filament for my PhD
Made me think of Navin R. Johnson’s invention of the Opti-Grab.
JackFr··on The U.S. government may finally mandate safer table saws
> Ever think of how many more people would be willing to buy a table saw if they knew they weren't going to cut their fingers off?

They are able, and they’re choosing not to. So SawStop is wisely spending marketing money on lobbying. If people don’t want to buy your product, nothing better than forcing them to.

JackFr··on What Boeing did to all the guys who remember how to build a plane
That’s actually a really good question. I would direct you to Ronald Coase and other writing on the theory of the firm.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nature_of_the_Firm

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_the_firm

JackFr··on What Boeing did to all the guys who remember how to build a plane
I could have been clearer, but I honestly meant my point to be limited to the stock market as a means for allocating capital.

I do favor markets in general and I understand their limitations.

And with respect to allocating capital, stock markets have proven to be better than the varying degrees of state economies.

> You are smarter than that.

True. :-)

JackFr··on What Boeing did to all the guys who remember how to build a plane
That’s nonsense.

Markets are the best way we’ve come up with to allocate capital. Committees and commissars do not do a better job.

JackFr··on What Boeing did to all the guys who remember how to build a plane
I think that many of the managers honestly didn’t understand where the quality and safety came from. They probably thought that they could just coast and the quality would continue.

As a counterpoint, I work at very large financial firm in technology and in general, the 20+ year veterans who’ve been here forever are terrible. They are hidebound in their actions, years behind in industry best practices and they maintain little fiefdoms simply because of their intimate knowledge of the banks arcane and idiosyncratic policies. The place would be better of without the bulk of them.

That is to say we are the complete opposite of what Boeing was. But the most charitable interpretation you could offer the Boeing management is that they thought they were in the situation of my company rather than the situation they actually had.

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