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JamisonM

1,670 karma · joined August 23, 2010

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JamisonM··on FAA K-12 Airport Design Challenge in Minecraft
"She can earn her phone or computer when she publishes an app on the App Store."

I don't understand how building a piece of software that Apple is willing to publish on the App Store makes your daughter emotionally prepared for social media.

I don't have any problem with gatekeeping minors' access to social media (although I would be much more liberal in this area than you) but this metric seems absolutely bonkers to me. My heuristic from my own personal development would be that the earlier I was able to make some commercially viable software the later you should push my access to social media... my coding ability was never an indicator of my defenses against the common ills of social media for kids as I understand them!

JamisonM··on Perennial rice: Plant once, harvest again and again
Thanks for info, neat!

Most problem weeds on the prairies where I farm are taller than the planted crops when mature, particularly as yield benefits have been gained by shortening more and more varieties over time. A pigweed or a smartweed will outrun a wheat crop with a week of head-start like nothing. Corn can't take any competition at all, I had a planter row in my Barley of corn one year, I figured the corn would simply outgrow the barley and leave it in its proverbial dust.. quite the opposite, I sprayed the Barley out at about the 4-leaf stage and the corn was a full 2 feet shorter than the row beside it at maturity!

That all said of course a natural prairie is different, the tall-grass prairie - as far as I understand it - competes for water under the ground more than light above it - shade can actually help! (Lord knows I mow under my trampoline twice as often as the rest of the lawn.)

JamisonM··on FAA K-12 Airport Design Challenge in Minecraft
My kids each went through a phase when they started Minecraft where they could build & farm and wanted to play in a world with mobs but wanted me to be their "knight" that kept them safe - it was a lot of fun for a few hours a week. Real good quality time that we still joke about years later.
JamisonM··on Perennial rice: Plant once, harvest again and again
I am a farmer.

It is quite close to impossible for weeds to establish once many crops reach a certain stage, this is pretty consistent with the perennial idea.

Stripper headers are quote commonly used all over the world:

https://youtu.be/nppu5OfjisQ?t=90

The assertion that a perennial plant "cannot be damaged" is also incorrect, many perennial crops benefit agronomically from a "trim", even non-perennials have economic circumstances where it makes sense to "damage" the crop, e.g. grazing winter crops in the late fall.

https://extension.okstate.edu/fact-sheets/dual-purpose-wheat...).

JamisonM··on More students are turning away from college and toward apprenticeships
I have always known it as "C's get degrees" but that's sort of a crass expression, not really the equivalent of the quote which is presented as "life advice" for the enrichment of those that receive it.

"C's get degrees": The bare minimum to get the credential is the optimal use of resources.

"You want either a first or a fourth. There is no value in anything between.": Either excel at school to maximize your achievement or don't worry about your grades and simply pursue whatever comes your way from the opportunity to be there to enrich your life.

JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
I don't want to beat a dead horse here too much but part of what I hope folks will understand is that any potential buyers also know what I know, they all know that once the liquidity crunch is resolved this is a viable business with good operations that ran profitably for a long time and the regulator would put a continuity plan in place immediately. It is not the case that "someone wanting to buy [..] it may appear more easily now" - all the potential buyers have clear expectations of continued operations. This is a matter of understanding banking as currently practiced, unfortunately there are a lot of folks 'round here that think this is like a retail bankruptcy and are spouting off on that basis instead of deferring to experts.

Depositors might choose to run, but any business that runs their payroll though SVB is going to ask their CFO what to do and that guy is going to say, "We're full guaranteed, how much money to you want to spend to accomplish nothing?"

JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
"Silicon Valley Bank had 17 branches in California and Massachusetts. The main office and all branches of Silicon Valley Bank will reopen on Monday, March 13, 2023. The DINB will maintain Silicon Valley Bank’s normal business hours. Banking activities will resume no later than Monday, March 13, including on-line banking and other services. Silicon Valley Bank’s official checks will continue to clear. Under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, the FDIC may create a DINB to ensure that customers have continued access to their insured funds."

They are running it under a new name. I understand how this can be confusing but they have to keep everything in place so that the systems will all still work and people can get their money, payroll systems, internal systems and processes all still work. And when a buyer for their operations is found it will keep on running and slowly be incorporated into the acquiring entity because it will in effect be a very large bank merger that will take time and effort.

https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html

JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
Looking at other banks that maybe be in a similar position and taking prompt action is competence to be celebrated, I view it as more evidence that despite weaknesses in the regulatory framework they are not in a tough spot at all. They know they can act decisively without fear.

A tough spot would be an environment where they let the SVB situation drag out and didn't act on Signature until a run was in motion and had both to deal with at once.. then they would be fighting to restore confidence.

If you look at the numbers from 2007-08 and this stuff, plus the much tougher regulatory environment (despite SVB's ability to fall under a lot of thresholds) there just isn't the sort of systemic risk at play here that folks seem to be implying. Also this isn't a replay of the S&L Crisis of the 1980's because those lessons were actually learned but some institutions are still going to screw up because a rising interest rate environment is still challenging in the current regulatory regime.

JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
They begged for special dispensation that they didn't ever need. They proved themselves to be both selfish and ignorant and deserve any derision they receive.
JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
> SVB will cease to exist: it's being liquidated

This isn't like when Best Buy went bankrupt, the banking operations will continue, the branches will still run. It will take a long time to absorb SVB's operations into a larger entity, the larger entity may choose to run them as a subsidiary. You are making assumptions about the operations and staff based on no information, if SVB is going to be open for services on Monday as the regulator has promised everybody will have to show up for work.

JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
That wasn't the point and also they will still have jobs because by in large SVB will continue operations.
JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
Agreed, not a bailout as this is the purpose of the insurance scheme.

If someone gave me 10-to-1 odds that actually there will be no shortfall associated with this action I would happily take that bet. Shareholders will be wiped out but SVB's assets will cover all of the deposits, the regulator is just being extra-conservative.

JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
You could be happy for most of the workers of the bank too... it is not like the tellers and loans officers were managing the systemic risk of the bank! I am happy for them if they have jobs tomorrow if they were doing their jobs well given that we know that the C-suite and board were screwing stuff up.
JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
"I just hope nobody forgets how prominent VCs behaved during the brief period of uncertainty."

The point is that these VC's didn't act to support their investments, they flailed around begging for bailout (that they probably didn't need but they didn't understand banking well enough to know that or bother to consult any experts before making public statements).

They behaved badly and should be embarrassed and everyone should remember it.

JamisonM··on Joint statement by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC
THEY ARE NOT IN A TOUGH SPOT!!!!

They know (and it is obvious) that all deposits are going to be fine without any extra funds, wacko VC's and nutjob politicians are stoking the sort of flames that might cause a contagion so they are forced to make statements like this.

The fact that the statement is so milquetoast is certainly on them, but being uber-conservative in your promises is generally a failing/asset for bank regulators.

JamisonM··on “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice
"the Polgar sisters are proof that training is the key and not genetics"

Look, I don't have a dog in this fight but the idea that the Polgars "prove" that training is more important that genetics doesn't make sense. Evidence maybe, "proof" is just a silly assertion.

They were all born at different times and had different experiences and have different genes!

Here on HN folks are always going on about genes with confident assertions but the number of people that understand the difference between "heritability" and "genetics" seems to be very small.

"Football and basketball do have a "innate talent" component--at the highest levels the competitors are genetic freaks."

This is not a thing you have actual evidence for, and there are players at the highest levels of these sports that don't fit the mould of what you would expect it takes to succeed - it is too broad an assertion.

JamisonM··on “Open source” seeds loosen Big Ag’s grip on farmers
But do people really underestimate how much crop land is used to grow seed? What do people think? 1%, 5%? What is the reality? I don't actually know... As a farmer I would be very surprised to discover it was as 10% or 15%! I assume it is more like 0.01%. I regularly grow 70bu/ac wheat and seed 2ish bu/ac to produce that.. the corn/rice/soybean ratio is better I think but I haven't ever considered it in detail.
JamisonM··on “Open source” seeds loosen Big Ag’s grip on farmers
"Nearly all modern crops are hybrid strains" This is a "citation needed" situation here, the corn & Canola seed markets are certainly dominated by hybrids but very plentiful drops like wheat and rice are not to the best of my knowledge. If you have sources for this I am very interested to read up on it.
JamisonM··on “Open source” seeds loosen Big Ag’s grip on farmers
Farmer here, the above is absolutely correct. The notion that a farmer would "take a chance" on spraying an non-GMO planted crop with Roundup/Liberty is a pure fiction.
JamisonM··on Please don’t film me in 2023
It is funny that I kinda see it exactly the other way.. we live in a world that is much less about the local community so these people are both /choosing/ to care what other people think and /choosing/ what they present to those other people.

Most normie kids don't make any content.. they just don't.. you can still live a super-normal life and that is what most people do.

JamisonM··on Canada bans most foreigners from buying homes
And any jurisdiction that loosens zoning restrictions can benefit from the investments that will expand availability instead of being harmed by the consumption of a scarce resource. Potential for a win-win situation.
JamisonM··on Canada bans most foreigners from buying homes
In the Prairies you could put a lot of people on farmland and it wouldn't subtract very much productive capacity and would accommodate a lot of people. A square mile is roughly 800mt of grain give or take most years on prime farmland.. the economic value of that vs the sheer number of people you can house on that space with reasonable density, the tradeoff is a non-issue. (That's why developable land on the edge of Winnipeg trades at $25k/ac and the same land 10 miles away is worth 5-6k/ac.)
JamisonM··on Canada bans most foreigners from buying homes
The expectation of the future price of housing for foreign investors is entirely about believing that future construction will be restricted. If investors, foreign or otherwise, believed that housing was a market that responded to market forces in a timely manner they would not invest. It is therefore reasonable to assume that the foreign investors:

1. Believe that their domestic real estate market is overpriced or will respond very quickly to market pressures that will make any investment undervalued. 2. Believe there is non-market benefits to owning foreign real estate that compensate for any additional risk associated with investing overseas.

I believe that both of these factors are at play, Canadian real estate rules make markets dysfunctional so property values tend to increase disproportionally compared to what they should. But it is also the case that a upper-middle class Chinese person looking to secure assets outside the purview of the authoritarian government they are forced to live under will pay a premium.

Ideally what we all want is a situation where the Canadian market is very dynamic and investments provide a reasonable return but any foreign investors that are investing for non-market benefit reasons are compelled to put their properties into the market for rental at market rate for economic reasons but still get to enjoy the bit of freedom that foreign investment affords them.

JamisonM··on SouthwestAirlines' Meltdown Shows How Corporations Pit Consumers Against Workers
> If volumes are continuously higher than normal, then they're are the "new normal" and companies must adjust accordingly.

You know I think in the current business environment there is zero confidence in what the new normal is actually going to be. I don't think businesses like credit card issuers want to make people hold for a long time but I do think they are terrified of spending big bucks onboarding a lot of call centre staff and then having volumes drop off. And they honestly may not think they can afford the level of staffing required to bring wait times down in the long run and are grasping for technological solutions (that either don't work or are not mature enough to be effective).

As a farmer I certainly feel a bit paralyzed by the "new normal" - are these high commodity prices here to stay? High input costs? Am I facing decade or so of high-cost/high-margin production that would mean the securing land now is the optimal strategy? Or am I facing a decade or so of high-cost/low-margin operations if grain commodities fall back to earth but energy stays high in which case land prices will start to fall? The steady state of 2008-2019 was pretty easy to manage - this is a different world.

JamisonM··on SouthwestAirlines' Meltdown Shows How Corporations Pit Consumers Against Workers
> The lesson from all this, it seems to me, is that if a meltdown can happen to a company like Southwest, which has ample resources and talent, then it could happen to anyone.

That doesn't strike me as the lesson at all, the lesson seems to be that if you have a part of your process that is brittle (staff tracking & scheduling) you need to be aware of that limitation and either address it or not execute a business strategy that makes it sure to break under duress. American & United had a lot of delays and cancellations but they did not have to essentially shut down their airlines so they could spend a few days figuring out where their crews actually were! Southwest had to do that! (And many of the SW crews had to book their own accommodation in the hopes that they would be reimbursed because everything was broken.)

The article does make it seem like the ptp model is the issue.. and it is the issue in the sense that ptp is certainly harder to support if you can't actually track where your staff is.. but having the worst staff tracking system in the industry and straining that part of your business by adding more routes that require more stringent staff tracking is kinda my point!

JamisonM··on SouthwestAirlines' Meltdown Shows How Corporations Pit Consumers Against Workers
There is a tension in the article between "the capitalists are pitting the consumers against the front line workers" premise and the "the capitalists are eliminating the front line workers" point made in the article.

Southwest's meltdown was about computer systems that coordinate "offline" based on assumptions instead of online based on passing information back and forth on a regular basis.

Southwest was a very reliable airline, it didn't have some sort of day-to-day understaffing problem, they executed an unorthodox business strategy [0] in the last year or so that has degraded their performance, and bad weather exacerbated the problem.

0: https://www.inc.com/kelly-main/southwest-becomes-one-of-amer...

JamisonM··on Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination
"there was never any valid reason to halt society in the first place"

Look whatever you think about anything full hospitals everywhere and people in Spain being left for dead in old folks homes were definitely real things - I am not sure about your definition of "halt society" here but policy choices that reduced social contact in indoor spaces was absolutely required. You just can't rewrite history if that is what you are trying to imply.

JamisonM··on Autopsy-based characterization of myocarditis after anti-SARS-CoV-2-vaccination
Yeah, it is just wacky stuff for people to be "COVID-19 NBD" while the hospitals are full and the morgues can't keep up with refrigeration requirements... it is not worth engaging with. The exact count doesn't matter, the spikes demonstrate the truth of the issue.
JamisonM··on Hidden tech of the Nest Thermostat
I had a frequent cycling problem and the issue was that the air conditioning A-frame in my furnace was plugged.. it was causing a constriction that caused the natural gas furnace to overheat when it went into the second stage and cycle.

(I thought it was a shortage of return but once I eliminated that I cut open the furnace and found the problem)

JamisonM··on Twitter has re-suspended ElonJet account
Two things jump to mind on this:

1. This is like the classic sorta thing where someone thinks a given freedom/right/restriction is ok until they feel threatened by it and suddenly it needs to be reconsidered.. it is ok in the abstract and then when the concrete harms possible become obvious your opinion changes (like being related to a victim of a mass shooting or being friends with someone gay that is being denied the rights of a "normal" marriage)

2. They could have just messaged the account owner and said "a delay of X hours is ok but real-time reporting is no longer permitted" and I am sure the account owner would have complied and they would have avoided this whole thing. It seems so deeply dysfunctional to have not done so - which is very on-brand for Musk-era Twitter.

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