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Kretinsky

208 karma · joined September 13, 2021

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Kretinsky··on The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression
It's the richest country because everyone is in survival mode and has a strobg pressure to get their head above the water. In socialist euro countries you can go with the flow created by the welfare state.
Kretinsky··on The elderly are becoming homeless at a rate not seen since the Great Depression
Sorry, but Boomers are the main landlords in the US (and the western world).

https://archive.ph/G3br6

Also, if you look at local democracy, it's mainly boomers voting.

Kretinsky··on French police arrest reporter over leaked secrets
How is France forcing those countries to use the CFA? Some are leaving, I didn't see any friction: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/west-african-countries-to-st...

In general, the CFA caused lower interest rates to the countries using it, which is good for developed economies. The people complaining about the lost interest (I haven't seen a real proof about this btw) never speak about the massive french subsidies to the western african states (>$2bn), that dwarfs any retained income from the CFA treasury.

Ho, wait they are also complaining about this! https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1195128/economie-entreprises/la...

So yes, let's close the southern border, push back the boats and never set foot nor send money there. I'm all for this.

Kretinsky··on How Mastercard sells its ‘gold mine’ of transaction data
This is why we need cash, encryption, and strong privacy laws.
Kretinsky··on French police arrest reporter over leaked secrets
This happens in any African country, whatever the colonizer. For instance, Nigeria is hardly dominated by foreign powers, yet it is a prime case of crony capitalism.
Kretinsky··on French police arrest reporter over leaked secrets
It's not the rank that counts, but the overall share. Niger's uranium ore can easily be replaced with Australian or Canadian ore in the next years. The price of ore in the final electricity cost is meaningless.

Niger is the top recipient of international aid in the region, worth 1.8bn$ last year. French taxpayers contributed 131M$. Most of the population still live under the poverty line (2.15$ a day).

Where will Niger get the capital to double its power grid in the next 20 years? Territory size is meaningless, by your standard Hong Kong should be poorer than Russia given the extreme density differences. Most of Niger land is aride and can't be cultivated anyway, so food needs to be imported. Parabolic population growth will only make things worse.

Regarding multi-ethnic empires, can you give me a source? I believe that it's mainly tribal oppression against enslaved dominated ethnicities. Similar to Pygmee slaves still owned by Bantu people.

Improving the region would mean understanding what's wrong instead of blaming the white men for all of the trouble. Not sure we're on the good path.

Kretinsky··on French police arrest reporter over leaked secrets
Price of Uranium is meaningless in nuclear electricity production. Even if there is a shortage, the French can recycle fuel: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-c...
Kretinsky··on French police arrest reporter over leaked secrets
Graft from the elites is the reason, not supposed unequal contracts from western companies.

Also, wealth of nations comes from production, not just mere exploitation of ressources.

Countries like Germany got very rich early by producing valuable things instead of selling their ressources. On the contrary, Portugal had dozens of gold mines, and now it's much poorer than european industrial powerhouses.

Kretinsky··on French police arrest reporter over leaked secrets
Niger represented on average 17.9% of the french Uranium ore imports, between 2005 and 2020.

Hardly a strategic supplier - Niger could actually be replaced overnight, we're talking about <1bn$ amounts here. Uranium ore is easy to find, refining it is where the value is.

Also, you can't complain about poverty while refusing to see that fertility rates are a problem. Same with wars, many, many wars are due to population surplus and poverty. Add ethnic competition to the mix, which is typical in Africa, and you'll get the perfect recipe for war.

Kretinsky··on French police arrest reporter over leaked secrets
Nigerien women have, currently 6 children, on average. This means that the population doubles roughly every 20 years. You have to rebuild 100% of the country's infrastructure every 20 years, just to break even. This is the problem. France (nor european countries) are responsible for Africa's fertilty rates. France and french soldiers have been fighting to protect those countries against Jihadism.

France doesn't depend on Niger for Uranium, and the royalties are low because it's very hard to extract Uranium in a landlocked semi-desertic country with no road nor proper power grid.

Overall, I agree that France should leave this unprofitable mining operation - I'm sure that the Chinese or the Russians will propose much better deals!

Kretinsky··on We are retroactively dropping the iPhone’s repairability score
What is the resell value of the parts for a whole phone? It can't be more than 1/10th, even less when factoring the time spent dismounting the phone.

Another solution would be to have a database of parts, and a repair using a stolen part wouldn't work.

Kretinsky··on Macron wants social networks to detect and stop VPN users
France is a bit different as the State has a lot of power there, and has had for a very long time.

There is a strong culture of adding new laws and requiring the State to solve every minor problem through repression and incentives. This culture is shared by the elites and the plebs, it's an alternative of learned helplessness.

Kretinsky··on Breakfast cereal is in long-term decline
What prevents you from buying those separately and mixing them? You can also find nuts and dried fruits.
Kretinsky··on Breakfast cereal is in long-term decline
You can totally find unsweetened oats in France, just head to the organic department. Carrefour has some pretty ok oats for instance.

Here, the cheapest kind: https://www.carrefour.fr/p/cereales-flocons-d-avoine-carrefo...

Kretinsky··on Breakfast cereal is in long-term decline
Unsweetened, natural oats with yogurt isn't so energy dense, is full of fiber and proteins, which will guarantee you with 4h+ of satiety.

You can also add fruits and/or peanut butter if you want a bit of variety!

Kretinsky··on Close to 2k environmental activists killed over last decade
So international waters are lawless? How about exploding test atomic bombs there, is that allowed too?
Kretinsky··on Close to 2k environmental activists killed over last decade
Is it working? San Francisco (and other cities) has been running such "experiment" and clearly it's becoming a frightening drug hot spot (among other problems).
Kretinsky··on CatalaLang/catala: Programming language for law specification
On the contrary, it's much better to have very clear text, otherwise it will turn against the citizen.

Imagine that you have an income tax where "income" isn't clearly defined. Someone will end up with an audit and a lawsuit from the tax office because their definition will be, of course, extensive (every income, including non-realized capital gains) whereas most citizens would only consider salaries.

In the end, you create legal uncertainty, and give courts way too much power.

For the record, I used to work for my country's government, and had to evaluate some laws in making that were written in an abstruse way. When I asked why, the civil servant told me that it was so "they could pick the most favorable meaning in the case of a lawsuit".

Kretinsky··on The Tyranny of the Marginal User
It really depends on how you frame your app.

In the case of OkCupid, I did buy the premium offer, and used the possibilities (mainly see the answers to the quizz, and filter people) to make a profile that would show 99% match score with the kind of women I was looking for.

At some point, it got close to a game, which was very fun and satisfying as I could meet nice girls as a result ;-)

Kretinsky··on Macron wants social networks to detect and stop VPN users
France is becoming less and less democratic, and more akin to an authoritarian regime, similar to what you would see in Singapore or Russia.

France was already on the top of the list for the countries banning content on Twitter[0], it recently passed a law allowing to use smartphone backdoors to spy on everyone (including lawyers).

A particularly infuriating evolution is the current push to require citizens to ask the permission to organize protests, and prosecute those who do not comply. For the record, this is textbook what Putin does to harass political opponents.

So currently, state-affiliated media will often talk about an "illegal protest", while everyone should know that protesting is free and doesn't require any permission. Actually, an authoritarian party coming to power today would have to change very little things to assert a full grip on the French society.

[0]:https://www.fastcompany.com/4032890/turkey-and-france-top-th...

Kretinsky··on Norway rolls back EV incentives while boosting walking and cycling (2022)
I cycled to work for 3 years in Paris. Cycling on fresh snow isn't so dangerous, but on ice it is as you won't be able to brake. Also, cycling by -20°c is a very uncomfortable experience and increases a lot your chances to die if you fall and pass out.

Last, cycling, especially in winter, is good if you're able-bodied, but it leaves out people with disabilities, which makes a sizable amount of the population if you take aged people in the mix.

I agree with OP that in general, a good public transportation system is the first step toward better cities with less cars. Bikes can play a role, but can't be the solution for everything.

Kretinsky··on Housing Is a Labor Issue: Land owners are taking all the wage gains
Rural towns if you want.
Kretinsky··on Housing Is a Labor Issue: Land owners are taking all the wage gains
People live in rural areas for a multitude or reasons. Not all rural towns are like in the US, some have streets, some are dense.

In Europe, a lot of the small towns are pretty dense, due to the historical need to preserve agricultural land and have a community to rely on[0]. In ex-soviet countries, you will often see in the countryside condominiums, as it was then seen as much more efficient and better community-wise.

So yes, if you densify rural towns to reduce sprawl, it becomes much easier to provide good services like doctors, groceries and schools.

[0] Here is one that comes to mind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cordes-sur-Ciel

Kretinsky··on Top Russian rocket scientist dies from ‘mushroom poisoning’
Just like for road accidents, death is a wrong measure, as it really depends on your health, i.e a 20 years forager will survive whereas an 80 years old one would die. Many mushrooms are liver-toxic, so if you already have hepatitis (very common in Russia), you're probably more prone to die from a poisonous one.

Intoxication leading to hospitalization is a better measure.

Kretinsky··on Top Russian rocket scientist dies from ‘mushroom poisoning’
Read the article, he has been sick for two weeks before dying. This looks a lot like regular shroom poisoning, he wasn't too young either, and I guess that, at >70 years old in Russia, you start to be more vulnerable.

I guess that political murder could be an easy explanation, in which case it's really, really subtle, which - huh - isn't really what the FSB is known for ?

Kretinsky··on Housing Is a Labor Issue: Land owners are taking all the wage gains
This is a chicken and egg problem. Reduce public services in rural areas, get population outflow, reduce public services even more.

You can stop the vicious circle by increasing the services back to make it attractive and at the same time densify rural cities to make them less costly to cater to.

Kretinsky··on Housing Is a Labor Issue: Land owners are taking all the wage gains
It's not only about climate change, most of the effects are to be seen on the biodiversity, the beauty of the countryside (yes, it's important), agricultural production and water supply, as concrete reduces a lot water absorbtion.

Lyme disease outbreaks can be attributed in part to the increase in rodents population, which is due to the urban sprawl and the increased difficulty for predators to hunt in suburban areas.

Kretinsky··on Housing Is a Labor Issue: Land owners are taking all the wage gains
While we could have more housing, construction is a problem, as, and especially in the US lately, it takes the form of faceless suburbs with an extensive sprawl destroying natural and agricultural lands.

It also promotes a car-centric and consumerist lifestyle, where shopping happens in malls, taking even more space. A better use of the current space would be much better than throwing more supply at the problem.

Kretinsky··on Russia Starts Blocking VPN Protocols
It's likely a government honeypot with backdoors, the French have reportedly access to the convos:

https://archive.is/1LGkG In french but you translate it.

It can also be a case of convenient incompetence from the telegram team.

Kretinsky··on Russia Starts Blocking VPN Protocols
Or a Ukrainian unit could get access to a Russian telegram account and then send malicious requests.
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