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MrDunham

765 karma · joined December 10, 2010

Founder of HeyLois, the superconnector co-pilot that finds deals/biz dev and builds your social capital

Sometimes co-invest with some great VCs (sometimes): melzi.vc

Previously: - founded Prebacked - a startup accelerator for contracts (prebacked.com) - First EIR at Sungularity University, helped launch their first accelerator — Dressed Sir Richard Branson as a pickle

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MrDunham··on California Declares Grid Emergency
Both, really. Normalize first with the ambient temperature and then run the AC to sub ambient down towards the 60s.

AC efficiency increases as temperature decreases.

You would have to deal with the fact that your house is now frigidly cold. Also, I can’t remember the last house I lived in California that had decent insulation - so that’s a major assumption.

MrDunham··on Ask HN: Who acquires big macOS apps?
OP: as someone who has purchased a website through one of these services I 100% can tell you that finances are a major part of what we’re looking for.

For an app the quality/maintainable/upgradeability would certainly come into play. As well as things such as growth trends, competition, etc.

But if you can show a market dominant app with a happy user base and steady income that is relatively easy to maintain you can generally expect 3 to 7 times your annualized seller discretionary earnings (A.k.a., your profits minus the cost of replacing your time with a paid programmer and putting back any write-offs that you put on the business).

MrDunham··on A 14kb page can load much faster than a 15kb page
Sadly it’s likely to only get worse. Google‘s new "helpful content" updates have the SEO world in a frenetic search for unique images, videos, etc. to stuff into articles. If I remember right Google even states that it prefers to see those in content and articles… Further exacerbating the challenge of creating helpful content that loads quickly if you ever want it to get seen
MrDunham··on Ask HN: Do newsletters work? Why do websites push them so much?
I wonder if that's (algorithmic) selection bias? IE you only see dumb memes or clever ways to be funny because they are the only thing that garner enough likes to break through the newsfeed noise?

Or if companies just found out that their interesting-but-not-high-valence posts end up not going anywhere... so they create dumb memes or clever ways to be funny.

Either way though we're caught in a death spiral of algorithmic selection and self-selection leaving us with drivel - making us less likely to follow companies and companies increasingly less willing to invest in quality content or content creators. Then round and round it goes.

MrDunham··on Ask HN: Do newsletters work? Why do websites push them so much?
> People tend to not want to follow companies

Also many companies got burned thinking the smorgasbord of free traffic on social platforms would never end.

It turns out that when your primary business model is selling traffic (via ads), giving it away for free is antithetical to your margins.

Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok (sometime soon) started off giving creators (and businesses) tons of free traffic only to eventually suppress it to push people towards paying to reach the followers they worked so hard to get.

On the other hand, once someone has given you permission to email them then it really doesn’t matter if you do it from your own mailserver, mailchimp, or anything else… They are still expecting you to be in their inbox (hopefully delivering great value).

Source: I was reading the internal newsletter in the bathroom of a major social network's office ~6 years ago when they were announcing (in celebration) that they had suppressed organic reach to sub 5%

MrDunham··on Please save Hacker Lab
A shared garage is an interesting idea. Back when Orchard supply hardware existed in the Bay Area they had started moving towards places where people could do some making/building on site.

Perhaps as a loss leader towards eventual sales/services if people find success.

MrDunham··on Please save Hacker Lab
Thanks for the kind words, friend! The chain is CoHatch and they are predominantly in Columbus but I believe they’ve expanded to at least Cincinnati, Cleveland, and I think several other cities in the surrounding states now
MrDunham··on Please save Hacker Lab
As someone who helped launch two start up accelerators, one for Singularity University, I can say that the economics of accelerators are actually pretty garbage outside of the top few ones. Pareto (80/20) and such I guess
MrDunham··on Please save Hacker Lab
I feel for you, friend. they just don’t seem very viable outside of a subsidized university setting like when I was getting a mechanical engineering degree.

crazy enough, they let me and everyone have full access to the shop with minimal to no formal training on the tools

MrDunham··on Please save Hacker Lab
You nailed it. Thank you for clarifying for me
MrDunham··on Please save Hacker Lab
Correct. The owner of the co-working space was able to get rent for one dollar (for the co-working space, because it drives tons of foot traffic with meetings and such) and the coworking space is wildly profitable. However, his opinion on maker spaces is that they are wildly unprofitable and even he couldn’t find a good business model there
MrDunham··on Please save Hacker Lab
"There's no money in maker spaces."

I so wish this wasn't true. I want to open my own to inspire young inventors to learn and build (because I wish it had existed for me).

A few weeks ago I was talking to the founder of a wildly profitable coworking chain in Ohio.

He broke the code...

don't sell memberships, sell the foot traffic to towns (and malls).

A few local towns even gave him $1 rent on beautiful buildings because the downtown needed more foot traffic. Or $750k non recourse loans for remodels.

In short, he's a damn fine businessman... and he's the one to say that he can't figure out how to make a maker space profitable.

It truly breaks my heart to see maker spaces go under again, and again, and again.

Clearly the standard business model of memberships + classes + fees doesn't carry enough margin. I just wonder what might as I'd love to see a makerspace in every city.

MrDunham··on FCC proposes to increase minimum broadband speeds to 100 Mbps
To pile on here with a tangential analogy:

My parents worked at IBM in the 70s through '00s. They told me when new hardware came to the office that had a gigabyte of storage and their reaction:

"A gigabyte! What would you ever do with a whole gigabyte?!"

MrDunham··on GoDaddy locks out derivatives of Chrome
I, too, use namecheap. In fairness I’m not as sophisticated as at least 95% of people on hacker news but it has certainly met all of my needs for the half dozen sites and 2 dozen domains I own
MrDunham··on Are Magic Links Outdated?
> Email Security: ...Should someone gain access to another user's inbox, they simultaneously receive the keys to logging into profiles that run on magic links. Therefore, a single cyber-attack on your email could lead to unwanted activity on many of your utilized virtual services

This statement only partially covers the problem.

I once had a cofounder leave my company on bad terms. He had access to the bank accounts, I had email admin.

It took me 5 seconds to get full bank account access and lock him out with access to his email ("forgot password").

It's astounding how much of a skeleton key our inbox has become. This community doesn't need reminding, but our families do.

MrDunham··on Deepest infrared image of universe
People use the term mind-blowing loosely but it really fits here. That’s an utterly astounding, incomprehensible number of stars.

And this image is “roughly the size of a grain of sand held at arms length” of the night sky.

MrDunham··on Ultra-flat timepiece, the RM UP-01 Ferrari, is 1.75 millimetres thick watch
> watches, they are socially accepted forms of men's jewelry. after advent of smartphones they are hardly about time anyways. its mostly style & flex.

As a daily wear of a “dumb watch“ I somewhat agree with this statement. Having a watch that matches my shoes and belt certainly makes an outfit look both more professional and well coordinated (RE jewelry/style).

However, I find that when I don’t wear my watch and just have my smartphone it is a significantly diminished experience.

Having to pull my phone out of my pocket to check the time is both socially less acceptable (am I checking the time or am I just bored with our conversation?) and far more likely to pull me into some rabbit hole and off of what I was currently doing.

So… it’s actually kind of nice to have a watch around, even if it only cost ~$100 (Skagen are amazing value for the price).

MrDunham··on Trust in newspapers and television news collapses to historic low
Not exactly what you’re asking for but Ryan Holiday makes the “yellow journalism is back again” point in “Trust Me, I’m Lying - Confessions of a media Manipulator”. It’s a (terrifyingly) good book and he goes into how he engineered nationwide protests and counter protests starting with a billboard he paid for and defaced - all to drum up interest for a movie. Also includes other shenanigans he did that the attention-driven media ate up and never fact checked.

I also have a friend who has fooled/manipulated the media on a National scale to humiliate the US Navy (he’s a Westpoint grad). So… there’s likely truth to the book.

MrDunham··on Writing one sentence per line
Go get convertkit. It's bloody awesome, cheap, and they even have an address of their own that you can use if you don’t wqnt to share your physical address.

The sequenced auto responders that they have boost my open and click rates as much as 300% and allow for some truly powerful/complex programmatic features that anyone who's on HN would love.

MrDunham··on Writing one sentence per line
It's a user experience thing. Too often product designers (myself especially) think that a user should remember/do an action/etc. However, I believe most failures are design failures VS user errors and that a better designed system could/should strive to fix them.

So, yes, I could use a Todo list or some other solution to remind myself. But that inherently assumes this rises to the level of neurally important... which trying out a new tool rarely is.

That's why I offered a marketing/growth idea to better help passers-by remember to try it out in a super clean UX way that integrates with their workflow.

MrDunham··on Contra Wirecutter on the IKEA air purifier
I had the privilege of working in a co-working space in Tahoe that also subleted out to outdoorgearlab.com/techgearlab.com.

Having been on their private list where they resell items that I purchased I can say that they do purchase and touch every single item that they’ve used.

I also find the reviews tend towards a higher priced end of the spectrum because it is affiliate paid. Nevertheless, I was pretty impressed by how much they put everything through its paces.

For the record, I haven’t talked to anyone there since 2016 and have no reason to pump them.

MrDunham··on Writing one sentence per line
Here’s my biggest critique of Enso: It’s not very easy to send myself a reminder when I’m back at my computer to use it.

Content: i’m currently on my mobile phone and I absolutely adore the idea of Enso (funny enough I’m currently holding & feeding my infant named Enzo). I would like to write with it and try it when I don’t have an infant on my lap but that requires me remembering it and looking it up when back on my laptop and ready to write something.

I added my email on the mobile sign-up but frankly I don’t really want a mobile app as 60% of my long-form mobile writing is done via voice to text and edited later. What I’d like is a “remind me via email to give Enso a try” signup that says “hey, this is a reminder to try Enso… The flow focused, low editing app for creative writing” or something like that.

MrDunham··on Spreading rock dust on farms as a climate solution
I found these parts also interesting from that study:

"...it is competitive in terms of sustainability. It has half the energy demand of DACS, avoids land-use competition of other land-based technologies (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage, afforestation/reforestation/biochar), and has a 10–100-fold lower water demand than these other CDR strategies."

MrDunham··on Which housing markets are most exposed to the coming interest-rate storm?
Sorry, it’s early and I’m dumb… GFC? Great financial crash?

If so, then I agree. No money down plus predatory loans combined with some greed for some staggering wealth destruction

MrDunham··on Which housing markets are most exposed to the coming interest-rate storm?
> Homes in America and Britain are selling faster than ever.

I only made it this far in the article (roughly the third sentence) before I had to drop it come here to tell a story of a one week delay (likely) costing my family $200k.

My mother just sold our childhood home she owned for 39 years. It’s 20 minutes south of San Jose/the Bay Area.

Has she been one week earlier posting it she likely would’ve got $200,000 more.

Here’s what happened…

The house was listed originally at about $1.5 million (Great view but oh my God does it need reno - I digress).

After a bidding war and a triggered ratchet (forget exactly what this is called but I’d never heard of it before) auto-bidding an extra $30k ish boost - she had a $1.7 million offer contingent only on the buyer selling their Cupertino house. She also had a back up offer in the mid $1.6M range.

The sellers ended up not being able to sell their house in Cupertino where just a week or two earlier homes were flying out of inventory before they even made it onto the MLS.

Backup offer also fell through.

They ended up taking an offer they’d already rejected (buyers came back with a slightly better lowball offer) which was right at the listing price, $1.5 million. We’re hopeful it will close but the buyers may not be able to finance now with rate hikes.

STORY 2 My stepfather is a private fiduciary and sells a lot of homes from estate sales for trusts he manages in the Bay. Literally in the last week or so they’ve gone from getting bids at hundreds of thousands over to bids at or below listing price (and accepting them).

I say this because even looking at data over the last month would be stale as, at least in the few data points I have in Silicon Valley, the bottom seems to be rapidly dropping out of the market and it’s changing on a day by day basis.

MrDunham··on Producing graphene in bulk using waste food, plastic and other materials
Any chance you have a source or reference to the people who disagreed?

Not trying to snark, I’m genuinely interested in seeing the counter arguments. Thanks

MrDunham··on Cuffed – A dating app with only one match at a time
I came here to mention this exact thing. When I was last dating CMB was one at a time. I had some of my best dates on that app and response rates were through the roof.

Granted, I joined eHarmony and married a woman I met there.

Anyways...

The one-match-a-day thing was also a brilliant way for them to deal with the marketplace problem... you don't need to have 1000 males and 1000 females in a city to launch if they can only see one at a time.

MrDunham··on Audiblegate
I'm convinced that the prices of audible books for people without a membership were solely to drive people to memberships (Much like how Vail ski resorts has admitted they increased ticket prices by over 200% so that they can say a season pass will be paid for with only four days of skiing)
MrDunham··on Audiblegate
There's a bit of a fine line here. I used a credit on an audible book that was just rehashed, mediocre content and empty promises. The gulf between the marketing promise and content was very, very wide.

That was one I read in its entirety thinking that something insightful or useful would come of it and by the end it was clear that the author just read a handful of blog posts on marketing and slapped together a book to call himself an author.

I returned it for a credit.

Now, I should mention that I have over 120 audible books in my library and I’ve only returned two since joining audible 7 or 8 years ago.

But should I have gotten a refund for that book?

On one hand it was a never ending stream of empty promises that were all left unfulfilled. On the other hand, I read the book in its entirety.

Perhaps audible does/should have a mechanism to keep an eye out for abuse. I’d call myself a pretty darn good customer that has read plenty of mediocre books that weren't returned. Someone constantly downloading and refunding books to game the system, OTOH, should probably lose the refund privilege.

MrDunham··on Decades-old IBM database became profitable dossier on health of 270M Americans
Correct, though it's interactions between any of doctors, payors (insurers), and information brokers (more like clearing houses if I remember correctly) - between themselves or each other.

So if any of them or their business associates got the information and sold it that would be a violation. But if say Target figured it out because she was buying a lot more orange juice and lotion (true story, Target‘s ability to figure out who’s pregnant is legendary) and sold that into it would not be covered under HIPAA

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