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NickM

2,672 karma · joined May 4, 2009

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NickM··on Maine Becomes First State to Use Ranked-Choice Voting in a Presidential Election
Ranked choice has the benefit that the there is no point in "gaming" your vote, so your optimal strategy and nash-equilibrium is to provide your real candidate preference order.

This is very demonstrably false, both theoretically and in the real world. Ranked choice voting only solves the spoiler effect in cases where the spoiler candidate has a small enough amount of support as to be rendered non-competitive, but if you have more than two candidates who are competitive then the spoiler effect comes back in full force. This is not just theoretical; it happened in the Burlington 2009 mayoral election, and fallout from that election led to ranked choice being repealed shortly afterward.

So, not only does ranked choice still incentive strategic voting sometimes, but it does it in a way that is harder to see and understand. There are other non-ranked voting systems like approval voting and score voting that are much simpler and better in this respect.

Ranked choice also has other drawbacks - like violating the monotonicity criterion - as well as more practical issues like making it impossible to distribute the counting process across precincts.

No there are no real valid arguments against ranked choice voting.

This is also quite incorrect. Our current system of first-past-the-post is bad, yeah, but there are plenty of valid arguments against ranked choice and - in my opinion - there are much better systems we could choose instead.

NickM··on Re-Thinking the Desktop OS
I do sometimes wonder if the lack of preemptive multitasking and memory protection in classic Mac OS may have ironically led to better quality software. Users are forced to be less tolerant of bugs if a piece of buggy software can lock up your whole computer.
NickM··on Separating Hype from Hydrogen: EU's 6GW Electrolyzer Plan
I mean, that's a cool idea, but if the goal is to reach long-term sustainability then that still kinda seems like a dead end, no? Even in the best case scenario where nothing goes wrong and we're not emitting CO2, eventually we'll run out of oil, and then we're back to square one, only now we're stuck in a local maxima having already invested a bunch of resources into H2 tech, infrastructure, vehicles, etc.
NickM··on Separating Hype from Hydrogen: EU's 6GW Electrolyzer Plan
Even if creating methane is less efficient, replacing natural gas with synthetic methane still seems much more practical than trying to replace every single natural gas powered furnace, boiler, hot water heater, dryer, stove, oven, etc. etc. in every home that uses any of these appliances anywhere with electrical equivalents. Hydrogen alone doesn't help solve any of that.
NickM··on Roof blows off new Tesla Model Y
I mean, I agree with the sentiment, but also you're assuming you'd similarly waste half a day for a Tesla repair, and that's usually not the way things work. Tesla will frequently send a technician to a customer's home or place of work and fix issues on the spot. Even when I've had to go to a service center in person, they've included free rideshare credits for quick repairs so that I don't have to wait around, or free loaner cars for longer repairs.

Back in the old days when I lived far away from a service center, they once drove hundreds of miles with a flatbed to come pick up my car, and dropped off a free loaner at my house while my car was in the shop, then came back and returned my car and picked up the loaner a few days later. (The loaner was also a nicer Tesla than the one I owned.) They really do go above and beyond to resolve issues as pleasantly and conveniently as possible.

NickM··on Roof blows off new Tesla Model Y
In general, anything Tesla related gets more coverage than an equivalent issue for any other car maker. I remember a few years back when Autopilot accidents would make national news while any other generic car wreck doesn't cause anyone to think twice.

Oh yeah this part is for sure true. I remember years ago a Model S got in an accident and had a small battery fire, and it was all over the news. Meanwhile Ford had a major recall going on for cars literally spontaneously catching on fire while driving, and nobody paid any attention.

NickM··on Roof blows off new Tesla Model Y
Just my own personal experience, I've owned two Teslas (a 2014 Model S and a 2018 Model 3) and they both had a pretty good number of problems here and there. The S was particularly bad, though that is maybe not surprising since it was one of the first 50k cars the company built, but the 3 has had its share of issues as well.

But the thing is, I've never had any issues that rendered the car undriveable or unsafe, and service has always been a joy to work with. Every problem I've encountered has been addressed quickly and effectively with no hassle or charge. So, I'm willing to forgive some of the rough edges, and I suspect this is why they get such good customer satisfaction ratings despite the relatively high number of issues.

NickM··on The K-shaped recovery
>It would be best if nobody went

That seems like a pretty radical thing to say. Sure, some people go into debt for degrees with questionable job prospects, but you really believe that the world would be better off if nobody went to college?

NickM··on People expect technology to suck because it sucks
I don't buy that excuse at all. Sure, perfection is impossible, but there's a very, very broad spectrum of quality that spans between "perfect" and "completely unusable". To say "well, we can't be perfect, so everything is terrible" seems absurdly black and white to me.
NickM··on Facebook Accused of Watching Instagram Users Through Cameras
We're talking about people thinking "this company has done a lot of underhanded stuff in the past, maybe they're doing another underhanded thing that they clearly have the ability and motivation to do."

I fail to see how that is a conspiracy theory at all, much less one on par with believing the earth is flat.

NickM··on Mind Emulation Foundation
I really loved Permutation City, and loved the beginning of Fall, but man it felt like Fall just turned into a really hard slog after a certain point. I have definitely enjoyed some of Neal Stephenson's other novels too, even slower-paced ones like Anathem, but for some reason Fall just didn't do it for me.
NickM··on 100 years to solve an integral: The history of the Mercator map
If you are looking for directions in a city, what matters most to you is that the roads look correct. This is why the Mercator map is used.

Whoa, wait a second...is this saying that roads which look straight on a map are actually not straight, in the sense that they're not actually following the shortest path between two points?

It's slightly appalling to me to think that people all over the world are building crooked roads so that they appear straight on a Mercator map, and then using Mercator maps so that existing roads continue to look straight.

I guess it probably doesn't make much difference on a local level, where the distances are relatively short, but there's still something a little bit horrifying about it, if I'm understanding all of this correctly.

NickM··on Vitamin D, part 2: Shannon's story
What's wrong with potassium chloride? I've been using lite salt (50/50 sodium chloride and potassium chloride) in my diet to help make sure I get enough potassium, and your comment has me a little concerned.
NickM··on Glucosamine Supplementation Reduces All-Cause Mortality: Study
But if someone "works out heavily and supplements," that should show up in self reported physical activity, and indirectly in BMI.

Well, not to nitpick, but people with high muscle mass can easily end up with an "obese" BMI even if they have very low body fat. And it also doesn't take very many hours of working out per week to get jacked if you're doing heavy weightlifting and supplementing.

No idea if such people are common enough to skew the results of this study significantly, but it still makes me wonder a bit.

NickM··on Bitcoin is more like ham radio than the early internet
Maybe because the internet actually provides tremendous value to society in exchange for that energy, unlike Bitcoin.

Or maybe because there's no inherent reason why the internet couldn't be made more energy efficient, also unlike Bitcoin.

NickM··on How many of you know that the team is working on something that no-one wants?
Yes, 100% agree. Unless we change the system to stop these abuses, then the good people who "do the right thing" and quit will simply be replaced by other new employees who don't give a shit. The end result is that bad people are rewarded with huge paychecks while good people are punished with fewer opportunities and/or lower paying jobs.
NickM··on “Today, I submitted my resignation to Facebook”
Well, I'm not familiar with many examples relating to corporations either way, but I think legislation is a great example. There have been countless instances of citizens starting successful political movements within their own countries, but I'm not aware of any laws that were changed as a result of people giving up on the US and moving to Canada, for example.
NickM··on Young U.S. men having a lot less sex in the 21st century, study shows
Yes, I was going to comment something similar. "The majority of women" is clearly not the same as "the women you've personally witnessed hooking up with your friends at bars in NYC".
NickM··on GE Fridge DRM Workaround
The single argument I made was quite clear and unambiguous. Everything composed of matter is finite in nature, and that fact contradicts your previous suggestion that land is somehow special in this regard.

I want to give you the benefit of the doubt, but it really feels like you're just being deliberately obtuse. This is a discussion about the practical real-world economics of the situation, not a treatise on the nature of physical reality.

NickM··on “Today, I submitted my resignation to Facebook”
Recycling and wearing a mask at least have a direct impact on the physical world, and voting has a very small chance of having a very high impact which makes it rationally worthwhile. I’m not sure I agree that those examples are the same.

I did originally hope that my leaving FB might inspire others to leave too and have some kind of ripple effect, but over a year has passed and nobody else I know has followed my lead, and it’s really hard to imagine that the tiny difference in ad revenue from my absence affects the decision making at a company like that in any way whatsoever.

NickM··on “Today, I submitted my resignation to Facebook”
Where did he answer that? I re-read the post but I don't see anything like what you're referencing.

Voting with your wallet is another possible approach, but that only works if the lost revenue from all the people who care enough to leave can offset the extra profits FB is making by being evil.

FWIW I deactivated my account over a year ago and never looked back, but I did that more out of concern for my own mental health than anything else, and I'm under no illusions that my solitary gesture will make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

NickM··on “Today, I submitted my resignation to Facebook”
I'm always conflicted when I read about this kind of thing. I do think Facebook is actively making the world worse in many ways, but is it better for the people who care about this to quit in protest, or is it better if they stay and try to make things better from the inside? Will actions like this actually hurt the company, or will it just prompt them to hire replacements who have no such ethical qualms, and who may nudge the company in an even worse direction?

I don't have an easy answer, and I can certainly imagine how difficult it would be to get up and go to work for an employer every day that you see as evil, so I don't judge the author of this post for leaving...but I think it is still a question worth contemplating. I'd love to hear what other peoples' thoughts are on this.

NickM··on Study of the effect of Vitamin D, Magnesium and Vitamin B12 on Covid-19 patients
Getting too much of many vitamins can harm your health though.
NickM··on Tesla's batteries aim to rework the math for electric cars and the grid
The Hyundai Ioniq is a similarly shaped EV as the Model 3, and it gets very similar numbers - 133 MPGe (Ioniq) versus 141 MPGe for the best version of the Model 3 Standard Range

The Ioniq has substantially less range than the Model 3, and is a much smaller car. If the Model 3 still gets slightly better MPGe despite those differences, I'd say Tesla still has a pretty significant efficiency advantage in this comparison.

NickM··on Can electric cars on the highway emulate plane-to-plane refueling?
Yeah all good points, and just to add, there's also the challenge of maintaining perfectly reliable and low-latency communications over any sort of wireless medium in a variety of unpredictable outdoor conditions.
NickM··on Can electric cars on the highway emulate plane-to-plane refueling?
It was abandoned because fast charging stations keep improving, and are much simpler and cheaper to operate than battery swap stations. It's already at the point where you can take a 400-500 mile road trip in a Model 3 with maybe a single twenty minute charging stop, which is just not that much extra time, and most people like to take a short break every few hours anyway.

I suspect Tesla knew this would probably happen, but IIRC there was a rule for a while with the California ZEV credit program where manufacturers qualified for extra credits if a vehicle could be "refueled" in under five minutes. Tesla set up a single swapping station to prove it could be done and therefore qualify for the extra credits, but it was always kind of inconvenient and expensive and very few people actually used it.

NickM··on When U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages (2016)
Even typical Americans struggle with this sometimes if they have, say, hyphenated last names. I've encountered plenty of software out there that will reject or fail on even such a common case as this.
NickM··on Ask HN: How to prosper under negative interest rates?
If you live in the US you could buy Series I Savings Bonds from the government. They have a fixed rate which is set when you buy them (currently very low) but they also return an additional rate that varies over time based on inflation. (There are also mutual funds out there like e.g. the Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities fund that are supposed to guard against inflation too.)

In the long term, I would assume these will not give you anywhere near as good returns as other higher-risk investment options, but they might work for you depending on what you're looking for.

NickM··on For Years WallStreet Spent More on Buybacks Than It Earned-Now They Want Bailout
The auto industry bailout was a loss, but that was smaller than many of the other bailouts, and most of the bailouts were profitable. In net, taxpayers came out substantially ahead in the end.

Not that making a direct profit was even the goal of the bailouts, but it sure is nice that we made money off of them on top of saving the economy.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/2017-01-19/finan...

NickM··on ADHD, a Lifelong Struggle (2018)
Do you have sources for any of these claims about dopamine? No offense intended, and I agree that the common interpretation of dopamine as the "pleasure chemical" is wrong and oversimplifying, but much of what you're saying sounds a bit "just so" to me.
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