Powdering7082

3% gain on BTC is really not that much for crypto, it's the size of the movement within a given timeframe that makes it impressive (e.g. it was within a minute or two). It would have been very easy to take out a leveraged long position in defi & profit off this.

Do you have some examples & are you sure they don't pay licensing fees to NYT?

They break it down by SF & also attempt to control for location

1) It's not just engineers and software developers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy#Empirical_evi...

2) Musk is particularly bad about it & does it in places that directly financially benefit him.

Telling people that if they fork out 15k now they'll have full self driving in X timeline, completely missing it and then doing the exact same thing for years on end seems less like the planning fallacy and more like fraud, but I guess we can just wait to see what the courts decide on the matter

Yeah there's a pretty common routine of SpaceX & Tesla having some of the best results in the world for what they are trying to accomplish AND being much worse than what was promised.