PowerElectronix

Well, there is quantum stuff affecting synapses in the brain. So at least there's something beyond "classical" physics going on.

This one is easy. If it doesn't have a conciousness when it's unprompted, it doesn't have a conciousness at all.

The only issue is that measurements of ability and needs are easy to falsify and very subjective.

As I see it, even if you disregard the job of a person, ot their hobbies, or whatever intellectual activity that only a subset of the population engages with, you are left with a machine that talks, moves, drives, reads, writes, lies convincingly enough, manages money, enjoys a movie and can explain the plot and find plotholes and racord mistakes, etc.

That's millions of light years ahead than any current AI that only looks up very fast the solution space for code, language or math.

Anyone can do what I said with the minimum amount of training. Once you've done one or two pcbs it becomes rather menial except for some critical signal here and there.

LLM struggle with even the most simple PCBs, how can one say they are minimally intelligent in that case?

Make it be able to position and route a complex pcb. Extra points if it also can design the circuit, select the components and make the footprints out of their datasheets.

A bayesian filter in a quadrillion dimension does more that one that only has one dimension, but it is only more of the same.

Those are just the same capabilities than before, but with a much bigger compute power and training data behind it.

AGI can't be reached by "training harder" as, the way I see it at least, it requires a qualitative leap, not just quantitative.

We are getting a machine that better navigates across the information in its training data, we are not getting a machine that can think out of that training process, even if it can fool a few people at that.

As I see it, price increases will lead to a huge loss of users, the two big companies will go bust, hardware manufacturers will have to slash prices, cancel increased capacity projects, etc.

And users will make do with what their newly bought cheap hardware will run, which I think is going to be more than enough for everyone that doesn't need to solve another millenium problem.

Nobody will risk the equity this "close" to IPO. Afterwards there will be a race to public books and talk to the press, but before? Ha.

There's a tradeoff there, because a very distributed society will also be able to resist disruption and control from a central state.

Couldn't you have a floating hole filled net to give shade over larger areas? I guess this is the early stages of testing the idea, but if it's promising enough, I think floating surfaces are the way to go.

Pure inference would have to compete with other service providers and even local hardware that becomes capable of running models for a price if hardware demand by openAI and Anthropic dwindles.

That is a very commodify market and as such I expect power cost per query ends up setting the pricing.

I guess trash in trash out also applies to the training of an LLM.

Good thing we can patch those issues up and have an ironclad system afterwards.

Totally a feature

I expect them to sell everything if they go bust to recoup what little they can for investors. That would double whack hardware manufacturers are their final consumers are now both leaving the markets as buyers and entering as competitors.

Gotta love it when regulation meant to clarify, bring order and protect just ends up getting in the way and preventing entering the market.

Great article and great food for thought. It does sound reasonable that a democratization of the means of violence tends to stir up conflict and makes it impossible for a single faction to dominate everyone else.

The peace through dialogue that comes afterwards (democracy, rights, etc) also sounds familiar seeing what happened after the cold war and the great wars.

It also begs the question will the modern state and international allegiances go the way of the hittites if the means of violence/control trickle down to the general population?

It'd be a shame if their two main sources of income (openai and anthropic) were to go bust...

It's a degenerate polyhedron. Their faces intersect and cross one another.

Nuclear is a dead end. The technology is dangerous, a terrorist/war target, extremely expensive, makes you dependant of uranium producers and enriching facilities (or, facility as we are not buying from China or Russia), requires a source of water to cool the exit steam back to water to be pumped into the reactor so you are also dependent on the weather, and leaves you with nuclear waste in custody for centuries.

For the same money you can install solar and storage for more than twice the power, way lower maintenance, no nuclear waste left after the business and can produce power from dawn till dusk without needing the favor of uranium exporters or a river nearby.

The northern areas are closer to the equator than half of europe, where sun power seems to do just fine all year round.

What a waste of money, manpower and space.

Trump, Putin and Xi all seem to fit the bill and act like they can only gain at the cost of others. Some are more nuanced about it than others but none wants to cooperate with anyone else.

We're getting there. There are fewer irrational actors and small man syndrome affected people in places of power every passing day (on average, I hope these las few years are jusg a bump on the road)

The principle of anarchy in IR still applies. Those treaties mean nothing as soon as any actor sees acting against them advanced their goals more than abiding by them.

International treaties and institutions are generally good to vertebrate and regulate the interactions between countries. But one must not forget they are make believe as they are unenforceable. So when you threaten to arrest and prosecute allies of the US outside the legal system of the US, you are declaring yourself an enemy of the US and treated as such.

Super cool idea and excution!

I guess we should just not trust tech companies for long term support of the stuff they make. How do they think they'll fare after squandering goodwill with shit like this?

Usually, when an ITM option expires, the clearinghouse exercises it. I guess you have to jump through some hoops to claim them if they are offered to you through the company, but the stock is owed.

NVDA has also just announced they are buying back stock for 150b, so they could throw some the author's way, hehe.

Please, make us* stop!!!

*Our competition

The numbers don't add up when there are 2-3 main companies in the market. Imagine when there's a hundred more and people have powerful enough gear at home to run models.

Yes, I think at some point demand for gpus and the like will normalize and regular folks will be able to afford RAM, SSDs and such. And when that happens, super big iron in the anthropic/openai backroom is toast.