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ProjectArcturis

4,612 karma · joined May 24, 2020

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ProjectArcturis··on This 'College Protester' Isn't Real. It's an AI-Powered Undercover Bot for Cops
I honestly don't care what the Post or any other newspaper has to say about him. If there's so much evidence why didn't they present it in court?
ProjectArcturis··on This 'College Protester' Isn't Real. It's an AI-Powered Undercover Bot for Cops
>He is an MS-13 gang member. He beat his wife, to the point that she filed a restraining order against him. There is evidence that he was engaging in human trafficking.

Again, these are EXACTLY the sorts of allegations that should be adjudicated in court. Citizens and non-citizens all have the right to a fair trial before imprisonment.

If all this is true, why couldn't the government try and convict him of a crime?

Because they couldn't, of course. The evidence is made up and parroted by useful idiots to justify the end of the rule of law.

ProjectArcturis··on This 'College Protester' Isn't Real. It's an AI-Powered Undercover Bot for Cops
This is the most ridiculous argument. Trump wants to make Canada the 51st state. He wants to take Greenland by force if necessary. He's going to start trade wars until foreign leaders come and beg him for relief. BUT he's going to cower before the sovereign might of El Salvador.
ProjectArcturis··on This 'College Protester' Isn't Real. It's an AI-Powered Undercover Bot for Cops
I'm not trying to convince you that illegal immigrants shouldn't be deported. What I would like to convince you is that any time the government takes action against a person, the government should have to prove their case in open court, and the person should have a fair chance to defend themselves.

Is this particular person MS-13? Did he have a legal right to be here? You don't know. None of us do, not for sure.

10 years ago, the idea that the government could sweep people off the streets and deliver them to a foreign prison with no trial or recourse would have been seen as absurd by every part of the political spectrum.

ProjectArcturis··on Oil hits 4-year low, coffee falls as trade war escalates
Ah, makes sense. I thought it was for delivery to a warehouse in the US, as so many other commodities are.
ProjectArcturis··on Oil hits 4-year low, coffee falls as trade war escalates
I get why oil would fall - recession, less tourism and trade. But why are tariffs making coffee cheaper? I would have thought it would get more expensive in the US, since it's almost all imported.
ProjectArcturis··on Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout
That's because there's an easy arbitrage. If the prices get out of line with each other, anyone can buy the cheap one, sell the expensive one, and get free money.
ProjectArcturis··on The Secret History of the War in Ukraine
From a realpolitik perspective, the US would like this war to go on forever. Under Biden, the war was grinding up enemy Russian troops and not-really-an-ally Ukrainian troops, weakening both strategically while costing us no troops and 0.2% of GDP. Plus we were able to expand NATO and give Russia an ongoing PR nightmare.

Obviously they can't say any of that out loud, but the underlying strategy is sound.

ProjectArcturis··on The Secret History of the War in Ukraine
Definitely the demographic thing, but also the "Putin approaching death" meme feels like mostly a PsyOp from Ukraine. The unspoken correlary is, Ukraine doesn't have to outlast Russia, it just has to outlast Putin.
ProjectArcturis··on xAI has acquired X, xAI now valued at $80B
What's the ratio between xAI and X valuations? Same as the ratio between leprechauns and unicorns.
ProjectArcturis··on Do viruses trigger Alzheimer's?
By "so successful", do you mean "failed all pivotal clinical trials"?
ProjectArcturis··on GPT 4.5 level for 1% of the price
I agree with your comments about the West. The fact that we continue to expand legal gambling is evidence enough that we don't care about the negative consequences of an industry.

But let's not pretend China is perfect. The purge had much more to do with a) eliminating a potential competing power to the CCCP, and b) Xi's boomer-era gut instinct that new media forms are bad.

ProjectArcturis··on What do people see when they're tripping? Analyzing Erowid's trip reports
The 25 in LSD-25 refers to prior efforts by Hoffman to combine lysergic acid with various other organic moieties. https://archive.vn/vaKCX The first 24 are not hallucinogenic.

As I said in my earlier post, there are analogs to LSD with psychedelic effects. However they are much less potent. 2,3-dihydro is roughly 1/7th the potency of LSD. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&d...

And it is not recent. The paper linked above is from 1964.

ProjectArcturis··on What do people see when they're tripping? Analyzing Erowid's trip reports
There aren't really "varieties" of LSD. There's one chemical structure that is LSD. There are a couple related chemicals that are also hallucinogenic (e.g. LSA), but they have much lower potency. Having even 50% of a standard LSD dose contaminated with these related chemicals would really just feel like weak (low dose) LSD. Mindset, setting, and dose are the main variables that determine the trip experience.
ProjectArcturis··on Partnering with the Shawnee Tribe for Civilization VII
I would just like an AI that isn't so incompetent that it breaks immersion in the game. In Civ 6, on Deity, if you survive the first 50 turns, when the AI had a massive cheat advantage, it is virtually impossible to lose to the AI militarily. In later stages they essentially never use planes, or any kind of coherent tactics.

The AI certainly does tell you what it's thinking: "Duuuuhhhhhhhhhhh"

ProjectArcturis··on Partnering with the Shawnee Tribe for Civilization VII
And the AI was totally incompetent at maneuvering tactically. They had to massively outnumber you to even have a chance at taking your city. And they really haven't learned anything since!
ProjectArcturis··on Partnering with the Shawnee Tribe for Civilization VII
I would have preferred they partner with some UI experts.
ProjectArcturis··on Warren Buffett amasses more cash and sells more stock
If you sell BRK shares, the money comes from the buyer, not BRK itself. It's a corporation, not a mutual fund.
ProjectArcturis··on Anyone can push updates to the doge.gov website
Surely technical competence is strongly correlated across the two beasts.
ProjectArcturis··on Anyone can push updates to the doge.gov website
Yeah, it's just tremendously embarrassing. These are supposed to be the tech geniuses who can parse 50 years of accumulated legacy code and find all the government waste? In 3 weeks?
ProjectArcturis··on The legacy of lies in Alzheimer's science
Yes! Labs should escrow $10k for a year for each paper they publish. If anyone finds fraud, they get to keep it.
ProjectArcturis··on The legacy of lies in Alzheimer's science
There are certainly theoretical reasons why it might help. There is definitely a link between AD and blood sugar. Having diabetes doubles your risk of AD. The brain regions hit first and worst in AD have the highest levels of aerobic glycolysis (in which cells take glucose only through glycolysis and not oxidative phosphorylation, despite the presence of adequate oxygen).

To the extent a keto diet can reduce resting blood sugar levels and improve insulin sensitivity, there is good reason to think it is a candidate to slow AD.

ProjectArcturis··on The legacy of lies in Alzheimer's science
You have to understand that CDR-SB is a very sensitive measurement. Yes, it's an 18-point scale, but from 4.5 to 18 it's just measuring how bad the dementia has gotten. The vast, vast majority of healthy people will score 0. Going from 0 to 0.5 is a massive difference in cognitive ability.
ProjectArcturis··on The legacy of lies in Alzheimer's science
There is no reward for finding falsified data. If there were, we'd find a lot more.
ProjectArcturis··on The legacy of lies in Alzheimer's science
I was once very skeptical of the amyloid hypothesis, but I think the genetic evidence is very convincing. Most (all?) cases of familial early onset AD are caused by mutations that increase amyloid. And there is a rare variant of the amyloid gene that is completely protective against AD. Plus the efficacy of Leqembi.
ProjectArcturis··on The legacy of lies in Alzheimer's science
It's also hard to distinguish whether sleep disruptions cause AD or the other way around.
ProjectArcturis··on What we get wrong about athleticism
Huh! I thought they'd be skinnier.
ProjectArcturis··on What we get wrong about athleticism
Remember Fedor Emilianenko? He was probably the best MMA fighter in the world around 2010, and he looked like this:

https://images.app.goo.gl/JZoqXvSbcnCSahkKA

ProjectArcturis··on Umlauts, Diaereses, and the New Yorker (2020)
I enjoy the way that the New Yorker's style guide enforces consistency and precision in a way that is often lacking in English. Not just the diareses, but also the way they consistently follow the rule that when you add "ing" to a word that ends in a short vowel, you double the final consonant to make it clear that it is a short vowel. So the gerund of "bus" is "bussing", not the commonly used "busing", the latter of which looks like it ought to rhyme with "abusing".

It's just clear that someone thought deeply about a system that follows consistent rules. You don't often see that with writing these days.

ProjectArcturis··on Civilization VII only needs 20 GB of free disk space
Ray tracing, not real-time strategy.
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