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RC_ITR

3,166 karma · joined June 8, 2019

Not concerned with political “beliefs” other than “everyone needs to do more critical thinking and research.”

Clustering is usually a pretty good sign of doing neither - just because information is free doesn’t mean you shouldn’t synthesize it for yourself.

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RC_ITR··on Charlie Javice convicted of defrauding JPMorgan in $175M startup sale
What’s crazy to me about all of this is that the College Board will happily sell you the contact info for the 2mn students who take the SAT each year.

We’d probably not know about this if Javice just spent 10 minutes thinking, created a small scholarship, bought student contact info to “market” the scholarship, and then used that real data to commit fraud.

Maybe some recipients notice and report something to JPMorgan, but how many 18 year olds are actively reporting spam?

RC_ITR··on Javier Milei backtracks on $4.4B memecoin after 'insiders' pocket $87M
The idea that “you must be regulated as a security” and “you cannot issue” are synonymous is one of the weirder parts of modern crypto.
RC_ITR··on The Physicians Are Healing Themselves, with Ozempic
Let’s just ignore the controversial things like cholesterol.

Your knees are significantly more likely to work well into old age if you’re active, but not constantly supporting excess weight. Talk to any orthopedic doctor and they will tell you weight loss makes your lower body joints much healthier in old age. Not to mention the natural increase in activity people experience when they are lighter and walking is less of a chore.

Having healthy lower body joints makes you much less of a fall risk.

Being less of a fall risk extends your lifespan quite a bit once you’re around 60-70.

Being overweight is one of the most objectively bad for you things out there, but it’s a shame we all share (75% of Americans are overweight and way even higher you look at people old enough to be doctors).

The entire point of this article is now that it is something treatable through medical science, people who understand the major health downsides of being overweight are treating themselves.

RC_ITR··on Making an intersection unsafe for pedestrians to save seconds for drivers
On a green arrow turn, drivers are looking to where they are going. Legally crossing pedestrians are in that cross walk where the driver is looking.

With right on red, the driver is also looking to where they are going, but legally crossing pedestrians are not there, they are directly in front of the car.

The riskiest thing for a pedestrian is approaching a right on red car from the left, because the driver is simply not looking at you.

RC_ITR··on Jimmy Carter has died
Notably, the 32 panels Carter installed were thermal water heating panels.

This means that there was no innovative technology in them, and they represent a technology path that is significantly less space efficient and less useful vs PVs.

It is also worth noting (especially on a platform that believes in American excellence as much as HN does) that modern PVs really trace their history back to Martin Green, who did most of his work with Australian Japanese and Chinese researchers (since he was in Australia), so funding the projects of American scientists might have not yielded the best results anyway.

So in many ways, you could argue that Carter’s solar focus was symbolically great, but stronger US subsidies would just make the US look like Germany - expensive and inefficient PVs that are increasingly becoming a liability (though bless them and their utility customers for powering through and continuing to install new, more efficient equipment).

RC_ITR··on Congress mandates new car technology to stop drunken driving (2021)
Yeah this is an anonymous forum (which inherently requires a false persona) so it literally can’t be personal.

BUT my point is that a common trope here is laundering bad behavior through quotes and revered historical figures - it’s something people often pick up when doing forensics in their youth.

I’m fine being told I’m small minded (we all are, significantly more than we’d like to believe), but it feels weird to have it happen on here without people supporting the argument. For example, “How far do you extend the demand for consistency RC_ITR - should we allow the government to install cameras on public land facing our homes? in that case they’re simply capturing photons that exist in public areas.”

That at least would have made me look foolish in a way that requires critical thinking.

RC_ITR··on Congress mandates new car technology to stop drunken driving (2021)
I wholeheartedly disagree.

First of all, that quote was pulled to insult me - it's specifically a quote about individuals' minds, not ideas. That is in fact the one of the strongest criticisms of Emerson - he grounded idea-based discourse in commentary on the people who hold those ideas. I'd even go so far as to say 'English Traits' is the perfect example of that failure.

Secondly, When a premise is supported only by a quote from an individual, it is completely acceptable to post a separate quote from that individual in response.

Why should I believe Emerson about consistency when (hopefully) all of us here disagree with him about Norsemen?

Maybe it would be flamebait if that was part of an argument, but his entire argument was "Emerson said this thing so it's true" and my argument was "Emerson also said this patently false thing."

I know it feels bad to look at the whole gorey corpus of otherwise really cool historical figures, but encouraging people to believe anything they say without critical analysis is the true anti-curiosity stance.

Thirdly, I agree it's easier to make people from the past look morally bad morally and that is precisely why we should not base our worldview on their quotes alone.

RC_ITR··on Congress mandates new car technology to stop drunken driving (2021)
Well it wouldn't preclude your use of the car (you can still enter it and turn it on), you just can't drive it on public roads (Essentially the entire use-case of moving a vehicle).

TSA is at the airport lobby and technically only precludes me from entering the airside of an airport, but its purpose is to prevent me from getting on a plane with a gun.

I don't think point of implementation is a strong argument here.

RC_ITR··on Congress mandates new car technology to stop drunken driving (2021)
I was under the impression that 99.9% of people take their cars out on publicly owned roads when they drive. Am I mistaken?
RC_ITR··on Congress mandates new car technology to stop drunken driving (2021)
I'm sympathetic to this point of view, but then we have to be consistent with it.

No TSA. No license plate scanners. No fare gates for trains. No locks on doors. No anti-shoplifting tags.

EDIT: Is there some Emerson convention in town? You can look at my comments for some of his other quotes (It's actually not very surprising to me that an Anglo abolitionist who also believed that Anglos were the 'best' race wasn't a big fan of consistency!)

RC_ITR··on U.S. net saving as a percentage of gross national income
Just to set context here.

Net saving is:

> equal to the sum of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, and net government saving. [0]

To break that down further:

Personal Saving is 'Post tax income less consumption'. That looks like this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE

Undistributed corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments is a measure of how much profit companies made, but did not return to shareholders (with an adjustment to remove the effect of inflation). That looks like this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B057RC1Q027SBEA

Net Government saving is (oversimplified, but basically) the deficit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TGDEF

GNI is sort of like GDP, but slightly different (treat it like the same for nearly all intents and purposes).

What this chart is basically showing, is that Federal deficits are up, but it's not translating to a higher household savings rate (As was the case during the stimulus period) OR higher retained corporate earnings.

I'd argue that the actual number is an intellectual exercise (i.e. it's relatively meaningless that it is now negative), but it is worth investigating why the Government is running such a large deficit in a hot economy that is not leading to better quality of life (Personal savings is a rough proxy for that).

[0]https://www.bea.gov/help/glossary/net-saving#:~:text=A%20mea....

RC_ITR··on Uranium demand hits decade high as nuclear renaissance gains traction
Are you doing that cyclical thing where you incorporate the fossil fuels burned in the mining of uranium etc?

Would you believe that those are actually hydrocarbon emissions that would be eliminated if we took electrification seriously?

https://electrek.co/2022/11/23/caterpillar-demonstrates-firs...

RC_ITR··on Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/spacex-fu...

They already have shareholders? And as you point out, if the founder really wanted to, he could have self-funded most of SpaceX (instead of buying X for example).

He's a public company CEO already - he has no qualms about taking SpaceX public.

RC_ITR··on Mint is shutting down, and it's pushing users toward Credit Karma
The big one is Quickbooks, which most small businesses use for basic accounting.
RC_ITR··on Mint is shutting down, and it's pushing users toward Credit Karma
Just a nit: Nearly 2/3rd of that revenue comes from non-TurboTax products.
RC_ITR··on Mint is shutting down, and it's pushing users toward Credit Karma
>This is a fumble not seen since skype fell asleep and did nothing during 2021 while google and zoom came and took their entire market.

Wouldn't a start-up competitor need to enter (and then grow) the space in order for this to be a failure like that?

If it's such a potentially lucrative product, then why have the myriad of VC-funded challengers languished?

I think in reality, Mint.com is a classic niche product where a small set of competent users (the kind you see on HN) love it, but most people just don't see a need for it.

RC_ITR··on Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow
The "trick" here is that he is likely speaking of operational cashflows (i.e. the 'correct' metric for low CAPEX companies).

The rub, of course, is that most of the cost for something like Starlink is designing, building, and launching the satellites, which shows up in investing cashflows.

Put differently, if the company was actually generating more cash than it consumes on all levels, start the IPO right now and SpaceX will be a $1tn+ company (instead of a $100bn+ company that people expect will one day generate cash and then be a $1tn+ company).

RC_ITR··on US consumer spending dashboard built on data from 50M+ cards now on Snowflake
Interesting product - compared to competitors like SecondMeasure, what differentiates your panel/data cleaning approach vs. everyone else (since I assume the data is sourced from the same place as you competitors)?
RC_ITR··on IBM cancels 401k matching, replaces with proprietary pension fund RBA
>investing with and growing with the American economy as a whole.

A very important nuance (not disagreeing with you, just sharing my pet thing), is that the stock market outgrows GDP because you aren't investing in the economy as a whole. You are investing in the good parts of the economy that people are excited about (i.e. When you invest in Amazon, you assume that they will continue to take share from mom and pop retailers, even in a flat-GDP scenario). You are also generally assuming that US-HQ companies will gain share globally, not just in the US.

That's why the Internet has been so positively impactful to the S&P 500 - it has really accelerated share shift to large companies (even if it hasn't accelerated GDP) and it has increased the global share of US-based companies.

RC_ITR··on McDonald's, Chipotle to raise menu prices in Cali as fast-food wages rise to $20
People have bought into the idea that certain jobs are just bad and therefore only bad workers take them. They then like to imagine that the jobs are OK, as long as they are done by children who will go on to better things.

Never mind the fact that these people rely on those workers to feed them even during the school day (and the jobs are usually bad because one is forced to deal with people who look down on you).

It’s a round about way to counteract the obvious question that comes after these kinds of articles (Isn’t even $20/hr only $40k/year full-time?)

RC_ITR··on Autism and responding to authority (2019)
Yeah - honestly the hardest part about having a discourse on homelessness here (or anywhere else).

People just need to believe that homeless people are inherently bad in some way. It makes it really hard to discuss solutions, since they’re all “drug addicts who should be in jail.”

RC_ITR··on LA County's guaranteed income program to give some foster youth $1k per month
>Go give 1k to a homeless guy...he'll still be homeless, and probably dead thanks to what you enabled.

I'm sorry for the double reply, but I really ma horrified.

It's amazing how we live in a country where shelter prices have increased by 50% since 2009 (vs. c.40% for all other items), and yet we still desperately hold onto this idea that homeless people are universally immoral drug addicts.

Beyond that point, we are talking about foster kids here. Everyone immediately jumped to homelessness for whatever reason (they seem to be the social scapegoat du jour).

I think it is completely reasonable for the government to fight inequality by giving people who we know are not receiving any support from their parents a boost in their critical career forming years.

Honestly, $1k/ month could be the difference between going to school part time vs. working full-time. Why does nobody's mind go to this? Why is the assumption that foster kids would never make that choice?

RC_ITR··on US immigration enforcement used AI-powered tool to scan posts derogatory to US
Yes, but as you rightly point out, it's used to decide what the founders were going for specifically as it relates to interpretations of The Constitution.

The first 7 words of The Constitution are “We the People of The United States.” Later in the same paragraph they specifically state that they are doing that for “ourselves and our posterity”

There is no ambiguity that the framers were creating rights and laws for “People of the United States”

RC_ITR··on US immigration enforcement used AI-powered tool to scan posts derogatory to US
Yes, but what the founders were going for specifically as it relates to interpretations of The Constitution

The first 7 words of The Constitution are “We the People of The United States.” Later in the same paragraph they specifically state that they are doing that for “ourselves and our posterity”

There is no ambiguity that the framers were creating rights and laws for “People of the United States”

RC_ITR··on Study shows antibodies against PEG in 83% of the German population
The amount of calories available per capita has gone up by c. 20% over the last 60 years.

Meanwhile, the amount of fat available has gone up 40%, while protein supplies have risen closer to c. 10%.

It is absolutely anti-data to imply that previous generations had access to the same amount/mix of food/calories as we do today.

https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply

RC_ITR··on US immigration enforcement used AI-powered tool to scan posts derogatory to US
You know what's interesting about the Declaration of Independence?

It's superseded by The Constitution, the actual foundation for all American laws.

It's a nice thing Americans are proud of, but for example, The Supreme Court can't cite in a ruling, unless it's also in-line with The Constitution.

RC_ITR··on Gen Z wants less sex in TV and movies
>had to compete with spider-man

Yes, a much more popular IP-based movie.

I understand it's frustrating to accept that the viewing public prefers IP over original movies, but it's just true. Studio movies as audiences expect them (and increasingly TV) are just too big and expensive to be the medium in which we workshop new ideas. You'll often get new ideas from blank-check directors, animation, or indie films, but that's it.

Now, keep in mind, looking back at some of the greatest movies of all time, good movies were always IP-based, it was just less noticeable:

Godfather (book)

Gone With the Wind (book)

Lawrence of Arabia (book)

Wizard of OZ (book)

The Graduate (book)

West Side Story (Musical)

2001 (An expansion of an existing Arthur Clark Story)

I could go on, but you get the point.

RC_ITR··on LA County's guaranteed income program to give some foster youth $1k per month
I'm surprised you and so many others are coming at this from such a negative point of view.

Why are you so certain foster kids are just going to drink themselves to death? What about not having a parent makes someone immediately at risk for that?

RC_ITR··on Gen Z wants less sex in TV and movies
There are plenty on non-IP based movies, targeted at Gen-Z/Alpha, and made by large studios that have underperformed this year.

Elemental and Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken immediately come to mind.

RC_ITR··on LA County's guaranteed income program to give some foster youth $1k per month
>You're proving his point. $1k isn't enough to do anything with, so it's going to get wasted on vice.

Or, and hear me out here, it could supplement the $2,400/month someone makes working 160 hours at $15/hour.

Again, keep in mind, median rent in LA county is is >$3k/month.

IDK everyone in this thread thinks so poorly of former foster kids. Have they not had it hard enough?

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