TheAlchemist

Naive question - why couldn't we just launch this nuclear waste into ... space ?

If you're interested in better thinking, go read a bit about Charlie Munger - he's gone now, but he was thinking about thinking for quite a long time and has some good advice.

Farnam Street used to be a very good blog too, albeit it feels much more 'commercial' for the past 5 years.

It's good to hear that more people are realizing that Tesla is nowhere near where they claim to be.

For anobody observing it from the sidelines, it was obvious for the past 3 years at least, that Tesla will not achieve real unsupervised FSD with HW3, and now it's also obvious it will not be wiht HW4. It's also obvious they are very well aware of those facts, despite lying to investors and customers for the past 10 years.

Exactly that. There was a very nice talk by Warren Buffett explaining that to business leaders at the height of the dot-com bubble - if I remember correctly it's full text is the introduction to his biography 'The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life'.

Airlines are a great example - they are everywhere, nobody can imagine life without them, and yet they are yet to make any money ! Maybe they will figure it out before oil runs out on planet Earth.

As for Buffett speach - ther is a specific quote about airlines in it: "If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s he should’ve shot Orville Wright"

That's not accurate - the uprising was not planned in collaboration with the Russians.

The whole point of the uprising was to liberate Warsaw before the Russians get in, as everybody knew that Russians are not liberating Poland - they are looking to occupy the country, just as Germany did. If the Uprising was successfull, it would give a great credit and negotiating card to the Polish government.

Unfortunately, Russians knew that too - that's exactly why they stopped their advance and watched the city being razed to the ground. Also unfortunately, they were right and ended up occupying Poland for the next 45 years.

Another very funny 'fact' - Tesla Semi. If you look at their quarterly releases:

- until 2025 it was listed as Pilot Production

- in Q1 2025 it moved to Construction

- in Q4 2025 it moved to Tooling

- in Q1 2026 it moved ... back to Pilot Production !

Everybody knows they just make up stuff as they go, but it's quite hilarious to watch. 1 Trillion $ company. I just can't wait for this house of cards to finally fall.

About those underwriters - to quote the venerable Charlie Munger "they will sell 'shit' as long as 'shit' can be sold".

"Mens sana in corpore sano"

People knew that for ages !

I too neglected my health when in my early 30s, luckily at 35 I started exercising and running again. I got in the best shape of my life around 40 and it was the best decision I've ever made.

As for specific experiences, my creativity and productivity on the mornings when I go for a sunrise run, is off the charts. I also tend to ponder things when swimming on lunchtime break and get surprisingly (at least to myself) good ideas.

I really wish more people were aware of this. It's a major scandal and definitely not being talked enough about.

Nevermind SpaceX, which at least have some importance for US defense industry, but xAI ? We will be investing in Elon's private venture, at the price that he himself set and which is at least 2 orders of magnitude too high...

"Commited capital" - is this the same commited as the $500B for the Stargate project ?

Not gonna lie, I hate those announcements lately. It's full bullshit mode, worse than the Dot-com bubble. Numbers don't make any sense, any more, and yet journalist don't ask any real questions...

The way this war is shown to us (West) is very loopsided - Iran was never going to be able to stop the bombing and they knew it. But they still retain most of their ability to blow up anything they want around their country, which is most of oil and gas fields in the Middle East, and this time they actually proved it.

We like to think we're winning, but are we ? Iran leadership is supposedly decimated, missile capabilities destroyed etc. And yet, when Israel attacked their gas field, they immediately wiped out 17% of Qatari gas productions capacities which will take 5 years to rebuild and they could have wiped out everything. Seems their leadership structure is doing just fine.

As for all the killed - what did we actually achieve ? Replace Khamenei with his son - a guy who had all of his family blown up to pieces by US / Israeli ? That should do wonders to Iran's future relationship with those countries.

I know. I'm just saying that the way we talk about 'precision strikes' in the west, make one feel like only the target is eliminated, while in reality we usually blow half of the building the target was in, along with all the people. I would actually be interested by a poll on what people in the US think about how many innocent people are killed in a precision or elimination strike on average - I bet it would be something like less than 1.

While I somewhat agree, you should also look at the results of those precision strikes. Usually, when they kill a senior Iranian officer sleeping in his appartment, they level the building or at lest blow up several adjacent units, probably killing at last 10 innocent people.

Is this a serious question ?

Read this first: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_...

Recently, the U.S. decided that Cuba can no longer import any oil, and they are enforcing that. Is this a surprise that the grid collapses in those circumstances ?

Communism is bad (I'm from Eastern Europe...), but this collapse has nothing to do with communism. It has everything to do, with the U.S. deciding unilaterally that Cuba needs to fall.

Similar indeed.

It's an interesting situation though, since many people believe that now with Twitter and other social medias, they have real time reports from each war, while in reality we mostly see what we're allowed to see - and it's very different depending from which side you're watching.

Of course it was. That can happen in a ... war. Unfortunately, and as said as it is, it's ... normal during a war.

What's not normal is that US is supposedly not at war with Iran. What's not normal is that there isn't even a slightest effort being made to hold anybody accountable about it. What's not normal is that it probably happened because of AI tools that are right 99.9% of time, but this was this 0.1% of time.

I will just leave it here:

https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2030051395294941427

PS. This thread will be marked as dead very soon.

Hope all Americans are proud.

What is the optimal strategy for Iran, if they assume that the regime can withstand the intensive bombardments and people won't take it to the streets like US / Israel are assuming ?

Wouldn't it be to only launch cheap missiles / drones for a week or two to deplete interceptors and only then start using more advanced missiles ?

The big difference with previous campaign is that now, the Iranian regime is facing existential threat. While the previous war was more a of a show for respective domestic publics, this one feels like there is no coming back.

Of course Russia or China won't go to war for Iran - nobody is saying that. They can get involved though, just as Europe is involved in Ukraine war.

While it's possible, it's unlikely. Iranian regime is in a corner - they have no choice anymore but to escalate, and escalate quickly.

They actually do. And I say it as a European and I think the Iranian regime is as bad as it gets, and won't shed a tear if they all get executed.

What recent months show us, is that it's a rough world - there are no friends. I'm rooting for European countries to accelerate their nuclear weapons programs. In an ideal world, of course I would be against. But the world is far from ideal. The current alternative is being dictated the rules by Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin. Thanks, but no.

Regardless of how it ends, and it can go both ways, we're witnessing history here. This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia and China, mostly for military technology and oil. Hope it's not a start of WW3.

Don't worry, they will be seized by the government soon. Sounds crazy right. Not that far from the headline though, that would sound insane a mere 18 months ago.

I know that, that's why I'm asking the question. But if cost and complexity grow drastically with scale, my question is even more relevant, isn't it ? If it's easy to spin up a competitor, we should rather see more small companies, not less.

Unfortunately, we will only find out once the house of cards collapses.

Agree, the word crime was too strong. It's more of a grey zone.

Exactly this.

The country's progress and management is extremely good, however it's enabled mostly by exploitation of migrant workers and various kind of white collar crimes (ie, facilitating business for illegal or sanctionned entities - cf Nvidia chips for China for example)

So, are we at 50% of US population, without the safety drivers, before end of 2025 yet ?

The sheer scale and financial consequences (once it implodes) of Tesla scam are unprecedented.

While the word 'crash' seem a bit strong here, keep in mind, as the article mention, that Tesla is volountarily redacting all the details. The company was recently found to deliberately lying about the availability of the data in a death case, and ordered to pay >$200 million.

Is that surprising ? The merger doesn't make any sense at all. Everybody knows it's a bailout and Musk's empire is running out of money - it's almost the last attempt to save it. He still has 2 more jokers left - SpaceX IPO or merge SpaceX with Tesla. But the writing is already on the wall.