TheAlchemist

Read his biography - "The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life". It's quite long but pretty accurate picture of the man and what drives him. His answer was always that he just loves what he does and he does it with people he loves (Charlie). One can hardly ask for more in life.

This talk has popped on HN from time to time - it's worth watching, especially as one reflects on past year and make plans for the next one.

One would be crazy to bet on that on Polymarket. They had a bet for Tesla Robotaxi rollout before end of 2025 and it resolved to YES. So it must be like your FSD - Tesla is apparently already operating a general public access autonomus Robotaxi, maybe even 50% of the US population like the CEO said.

Dale Carnegies book 'How to Win Friends and Influence People' could actually help a bit. It's a self-help book, 100 years old, but still very relevant. Nothing magical in it, but quite useful, and for somebody as young as you are it could have a big impact over the lifetime.

In any case, just know that a lot of people struggle with it - much much more than you could imagine. It's worth trying to fix it though.

Good luck !

Yeah, that was already almost 1 year after they were supposedly planning to have the top 5 compute ...

The reality is they announced that as a pipe dream. Just like the FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and 10 other projects that will never work - or more precisely, they will work but >10 years from now, and it won't be from Tesla but from a competitor.

It's really amazing. Anyone still remembers Dojo ? 2 years ago or so they stated that they start to mass produce Dojo and it was supposed to be a top 5 supercomputer in the world by the end of 2024...

https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-...

The reason for that is actually very funny. Electrek guy (Fred) was one of the main propagandist for Tesla's cult - he 'earned' 2 free Tesla Roadsters for his convincing enough people to buy a Tesla.

It was only once he realized that he has been duped and those will never materialize that the coverage turned negative.

Musk empire will come crashing down, starting with Tesla.

AI bubble will start to pop (even though the adoption continues to improve slowly).

US / Europe separation will accelerate.

EDIT: For the first 2 - it's the 3rd year I'm thinking it will be 'the' year...

This is pretty exciting. When I first saw Mojo, it was announced as a 'python superset' with C++ performance. This announcement seems somewhat more modest, but still seems like a big step - open sourcing it should be very good for adoption.

Any feedback from people using it already ? Is this the right moment to jump in, or better wait a year or two ?

FPGAs are widely used in low latency trading. Most market data feed handlers and order passing adapters are done in FPGAs today - they offer better latency than software solutions and processing time is deterministic.

One example of a company offering something like that: https://www.enyx.com/

It highly depends on what you're doing, but in trading there is very often a direct reliationship between latency and how much money you can make.

I think the quote from the Polish Prime Minister refusing very similar German demands just before WW2 started is appropriated here:

“Peace is a precious and a desirable thing. Our generation, bloodied in wars, certainly deserves peace. But peace, like almost all things of this world, has its price, a high but a measurable one. We in Poland do not know the concept of peace at any price. There is only one thing in the lives of men, nations and countries that is without price. That thing is honor.”

As it turned out, Poland paid a very heavy price. But we're damn proud of it.

100%. The first version of Trump as a president was a clown that was being managed by responsible people, mostly.

The second time however, he learned his lesson. He's still a clown but he put his people, ranked by loyalty above anything else, in all key position. They are all knee deep in probably the most obvious and manifest corruption we've ever seen in a Western country. They won't oppose him in any way unless they are sure he's dead or gone forever.

One must love the projections of >50% YOY growth for 5 straight years.

Why not continue for the next 5 ? Maybe they will find customers on Mars.

This while situation is very strange - there are some big companies pouring tens of billions into it (Alphabet, Meta) - since they don't have anything better to do with the money printers they have, but there are several others whose valuations are based on completely unrealistic projections where their expected revenues in 5-10 years represent 99% of their current 'value'.

It's mentionned in the article later:

"If you are old enough, or possessed of a certain kind of disposition, you may be thinking, Wait a minute, aren’t you describing Enron? And uh, in some sense, yes! Enron’s whole thing was special purpose vehicles with extremely speculative valuations that were used to take on debt, Luria notes. But Enron lied about what it was doing, and that’s fraud and illegal. (It also got up to other illegal stuff besides.) Nvidia’s relationship with CoreWeave is all happening in plain sight. So are all the relationships with the other neocloud companies. It kind of seems like the tech company version of the GameStop open pump-and-dump."

To answer your question - not unique to AI spending boom - this kind of things was right there for recent major bubbles.

"core AI players are profitable and funding capex from real earnings"

What ? Who's profitable except NVidia who is selling shovels (increasingly to itself) ?

Edit. Profitable on AI, if by profitable you mean from other sources then yes.

There was, at least towards the end. FED chair at the time described it as 'irrational exuberance'. Warren Buffett made an excellent speech in front of most Silicon Valley titans at the time - telling them that their wealth is about to be blown up.

This isn't rocket science - do anybody sane believe that OpenAI will spend what, 1.5 Trillion $ they project ? Quite a big chunck of Oracle, Nvidia and others projections are based on this 1.5 Trillion $. They are loosing money and their revenue is 1% of this figure.

Frankly, I would be happy if riots in the streets happen (if there is a bailout of Big Tech in the first place). What's going on recently with OpenAI publicly, and probably most of the 'AI' players not publicly, is disgusting - it's a bubble, everyone and their mother knows it, and these guys try to save their asses by asking for governement backing before the bubble even pops. Privatize gains, socialize losses...

It's a shame that no more bankers went to jail after 2008, although I find the situation was much more complicated than here.

Warren Buffett is buying Alphabet out of neceessity - he already sold most of what he could sell and has way too much cash on hand - he just need to buy 'something' - Alphabet seems like the least overvalued big stock out there.

Oh, wasn't aware that Amazon is launching something to space - what are they launching ?

Most of which was for Starlink. Not saying it's not an achievement - it is. But if you exclude their own payload, the picture is somewhat different.

They will start loosing money this quarter. That way it fixes the high P/E aspect of things.

Now they will be a 'pure play' in Robotics & AI !

I love this scene from Silicon Valley:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo

This show was really ahead of its time. "If you show revenue people will ask how much and it will never be enough" /s Imaginary trillions of revenues from Optimus are definitely much more appealing.

I truly don't understand US politics I think. MAGA movement cares very much (or is it just optics ?) about family etc, and this Epstein scandal seems to be extremly important to them.

But the problem, and a pretty big one, is that their guy, Trump, was best friend with Esptein for decades and it's very well documented everywhere.

So on one hand they want to release all the files, but on the other one they can't be that stupid and think Trump is not in there ? Or are they so brainwashed by Fox News and influencers propaganda that they don't bother look up some articles from that period ?

The list of key people that left Tesla in the past 24 months is veeeery long.

Quite strange for a company that's on the brink of becoming by far the most important on earth (and Mars !). Oh, for those thinking it's because it's not longer a car company but an AI / Robot company, mind you the head of Optimus program and head of Software also left this year.

Same vibes as when Karpathy left in 2022, when Tesla was supposedly on the verge of attaining Full Self Driving. Well, fast forward 3 years, they are still on the verge...

Berkshire is a money making machine with or without Buffett. Its market cap is 30% lower than Tesla, while it brings ~100B / year in net income - most of which is from very stable, boring businesses.

As Warren liked to say: "I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will".

That's his portfolio now - he won't promise robots or AI, but he can guarantee solid profits for 10 years to come, regardless of his presence.

It was a sarcastic comment. Just trying to encourage people to listen and see for themselves.

As for me, I'm 100% convinced it's a house of cards and a fraud which will make Enron look nice. If somebody thinks a guy lying like that has sound business practices when no one is looking, then think again.

I recommend to listen to Elon speaking at the meeting today and judge for yourself what the man says.

Sustainable abundance for everybody, universal healthcare thanks to Optimus, 100M Optimuses per year production, already announcing Optimus 5 (2027 apparently), etc etc.

EDIT: Adding some other 'intersting topics' - distributed computing network from Tesla sitting in the garage - in order to prevent AI from getting bored, I kid you not ! Really people, listen to this stuff. Easy to dismiss as a cult. This guy was in the White House not so long ago, and is still the richest guy on earth.

EDIT 2: For those listening - if you think the guys asking questions are random shareholders, you're wrong. These are mostly Tesla influencers, that are part of the show.

That's incredible. Especially the swim ...

PS. If you're inspired by this story, this video might be a great watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J07O6dViHo

Not demand limited ? Yeah sure, CEO once said that they have infinite demand (at the right price /s).

If they are not demand limited, can you explain why they slashed prices, are offering countless promotions which evaporated their margins, and are running the factories at 50% capacity ?

Well, if you follow his adventures a bit, it's quite obvious that there is absolutely nothing preventing him from that.

2 years ago, while claiming that Tesla is the leader in AI, he launched a private ... AI company (xAI), for which he took Tesla GPU chips, and now he tries to make Tesla ... invest in said company, at a valuation (>B100$) that could only be compared to something like Dogecoin.

All of this, with your and my retirement money, since the stock is in the S&P.

It's not only politics, although it certainly didn't help.

Tesla did not release new cars, except for Cybertruck, for how long ? 5 years ? 10 years ?

Their lineup was great initially, and there was 0 competition. Now there is a lot of competition and their lineup did not change at all.

Their car business is dying. That's why they try to be an AI & Robotics company.

Edit: Here is a good link to follow the sales data - for many countries, it's reported daily. https://eu-evs.com/brandCharts/TESLA/ALL_DAILY/QoQ-Chart