TheAlchemist

Isn't it much more related to the distance between the countries ? When Iran sent hundreds (thousands?) of drones towards Israel they all take several hours to arrive - all were shot down outside of Israel (again by allies).

Would you have some numbers on how much was shot down by Israel and how much by allies ? I didn't find anything

While it's probably true, most drones and quite a lot of missiles too were intercepted not by Israel itself, but it's allies (mostly US, UK and EU countries).

Of course, and probably a lot of shady stuff going on - Musk got full access to government data... How crazy is that ?

The fact that these atrocities happened is not surprising at all - war is war and it happens all the time.

The fact that people in Israel took it to the streets *in support* of the guys perpertrating these atrocities is stunning. They may have won the current war, but they've lost the support of the West in the long term. Won't happen immediately, but the change in public opinion is quite apparent. And rightfully so.

America First ? Spending cuts ? Looks like people already forgot about DOGE !

Edit: Wow - I've just checked DOGE website - no updates since mid-August. Amazing

Trump thrives in mediatic chaos and a lot of things going on around. His worst fear is ... a calm boring period, be it in domestic or international politics. Because then, people may start asking real questions.

As long as can flood the headlines with whatever he wants, people will be busy with those. And not ask for example why he pardoned a guy who pretty much gave him 2 Billons $ ? Or what's up with that Epstein list ?

He needs however bigger and bigger things to keep the show on.

"Just finished a long AI5 design review with the Tesla California and Texas chip engineers. It’s going to be great. And AI6 and AI7 will follow in fast succession. AI8 will be out of this world."

At this point, we can assume he's just trolling, but looking at the stock price some doubts would be warranted.

In any case, they know perfectly well that real FSD is impossible on their current (V4) hardware, and already admitted that the version they sold millions of (V3) will never be capable to run even their current models. So much for 'every Tesla produced from now on have all the hardware needed for FSD' - since 2016. A quick reminder from almost 10 YEARS AGO:

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/all-tesla-vehicles-be...

"It's only when the tide goes out that you know who's been swimming naked." - Warren Buffett

This bubble is one for the history books !

My field is data science in a highly specialized technical environment. I use AI quite a bit now - mostly as autocomplete while coding, but more and more also for other use cases - help with naming, validating some approaches.

My opinion is that it's great for senior guys, horrible for younger ones. If you know what can go wrong, you can use it the right way. As a junior, you usually don't and in the long term you will loose a lot of time and develop much less skills with AI.

I don't see it replacing people in my field anytime soon, if ever. I do see it replacing a lot of people in say web programming, in the same way that most people don't need to do their website now because they can just use a service like Wix. For anything non-trivial, there is 0 chance that AI will work within the next 5 years.

In the end, it's just a tool. You still need people to know what to do, the how is usually easier.

The important quote:

"As we’ve noted previously, Tesla has tellingly not even applied for this autonomous vehicle permit, which would likely require it to disclose critical disengagement and safety data it is unwilling to make public."

Move fast and break ... kids ?

Its' getting more crazy by the day. Today NVidia added >300B USD in market cap. That's enough more than the valuation of Intel for example. Or more than Toyota. That 1B USD investement was money well spent !

Not only that, they also have some nice words for Clinton, Obama and "Biden/Harris".

Unbelievable stuff. If you (US) guys think you can get back to normal after that, you are crazy. Trump will never leave again, unless forced to. And even if he is forced to, the moral damage to your country will take decades and probably some blood to resolve.

Yes. There are several articles on Electreck documenting how the wording changed across the years.

I'm sorry but you're late to the party.

Elon said on today's earnings call that Optimus will be a great surgeon and Tesla will enable universal access to healthcare for all. Also Tesla's new goal is to bring the age of ubiquitus aboundance for everybody. He didn't specify though if it's on Earth or Mars.

I'm not sure we can call these things bikes. It weights almost 40kgs... You cannot physically ride even slightly uphill when the battery dies. It's just a motor or a scooter.

Oh it's just 'corporate puffery' !

Who could possibly believe the CEO saying that their robot 'will seem so human that you will need to poke it to believe it's an actual robot' - and it's coming in less than 6 months ?

FASCINATING

Unfortunately the SEC is no longer functionnal in the US. You guys have the President that launched a shitcoin 24h before inauguration, and you're asking about the SEC ?

This thing will fall once the supply of fools run out or there is a major market corretion, not when the SEC intervenes. Just like Madoff.

"Robotaxi iOS app is now available to everyone in the U.S. and Canada – anyone can download to join the waitlist. We continue to enhance our vehicles with over-the-air updates, deploying Grok (an AI companion) for vehicles in North America, Low Power Mode to help conserve energy (useful when traveling) and Light Sync that synchronizes the car’s interior accent lights with music. Customers can order food directly from their vehicle touchscreen before arrival at the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles."

That folks is from the Q3 Shareholder Deck from the 1.5 Trilion $ dollar company. An app that 'anyone can download to join the waitlist' - I guess the >50% of US population served by Robotaxi before the end of 2025 is already achieved...

I'm sure they will somehow figure out how to dupe people for some more quarters about Optimus, Robotaxis and AI, but we are witnessing history here - this quarter mark the top of the revenues for Tesla and most probably their last profitable quarter. This boost was only thanks to demand pull from US EV tax credits expiration. It's all downhill from here.

Fascinating situation.

Tesla is at most worth 1/10 of it's current valuation. Given its huge legal liabilities ahead from selling 'self-driving cars' for the past 10 years, it's probably closer to 0.

The crazy valuation is 100% dependent on Musk staying.

Musk net worth is very much dependent on Tesla too - if Tesla crashes, so does his fortune (yes, SpaceX is valued at a crazy number too, but it's not liquid and doesn't bring any real cashflow, at least not yet. And he used Tesla shares as collateral worth billions).

Tesla board member are all Musk buddies and have 0 agency.

Telsa shareholders know perfectly well that the stock tanks if he's gone.

Yeah, in short - everybody knows it doesn't make any sense anymore, including Musk and Tesla, but they have to keep the ball rolling, because they are all in it together. Every involved party looses money if he quits. If he stays they can get some more years of dumping their stock on naive 'investors' that are getting duped by the massive propaganda operation run on Twitter.

PS. Robotaxi will serve 50% of US population before the end of the year according to Tesla & Musk /s

Very good read. Took me almost 40 years to understand this. Better late than never !

Anybody with a brain knew this was never going to work and Tesla was obviously lying about the 2 million reservations (okay not lying, omitting some 'small' details - like that the reservations were meaningless, much like their 'Robotaxi' is public, where by public they mean an app that lets you join a waitlist...).

Electreck article though is suggesting xAI / SpaceX are buying them not only to help Tesla, but the timing suggested that it was also to extract as much of subsides as possible. As this is a significant transaction between releated entities, there should be some documentation on that in quarterly financial statements. Quite curious how many they bought - based on Tesla influencers posts, at least for SpaceX it looks like a lot:

https://x.com/JoeTegtmeyer/status/1977422203810414807#m

Sure, just like xAI is never raising any money (according to Elon). All of his companies are very tightly interconnected, so you should see them as a whole.

Can't be true - Elon denied that xAI is raising any capital /s.

Nothing really interesting to say about this 'deal', but I do wonder - what will happen to all those GPUs if the hype dies and we don't achieve anything beyond current state of LLMs ? Is there a precedent ?

No, I don't think there is any relationship there.

I'm saying that I highly doubt the real profitability of SpaceX / Starlink, and we will only see if it's really as good as they say, once the bubble pops and there is no inifinite capital, and maybe some accountability.

The funny thing is that everybody knows how this all ends. The only question is when. And I must admit, it's absolutely fascinating to watch.

I was quite young when the dot com bubble happened and didn't grasp the whole insanity of it, then witnessed the financial crisis (while also working in finance - quite interesting times), and now I can fully appreciate Sir Isaac Newton statement "I can calculate the motions of the planets, but I cannot calculate the madness of men" - which he made after he lost a fortune in the South Sea Company Bubble !

Yes, and Elon companies are well known for leaking reliable information.

Sorry, I was referring to the general stock market (mostly AI) bubble.

As for SpaceX, it's pretty much impossible to know their finances - they don't publish audited accounts. We can just trust what Elon is willing to share with us.

That's also my opinion - it will probably never be profitable - it's a great product, but the economics are not right - and that's why no other provider did this (even though they have the tech).

Let's see what happens once the bubble pops.

"Feels like we're living through a Michael Lewis book."

We definitely are ! The BIG question is - what chapter are we in ?