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ThrustVectoring

9,569 karma · joined April 3, 2014

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ThrustVectoring··on Pro-cash movement warns that people could be losing more than they bargained for
More generally, large unaccountable bureaucracies are fundamentally against the intent of the Founders, the spirit of the Bill of Rights, and the principles of government by the consent of the governed. That these bureaucracies are powerful private oligopolies rather than formally governmental in nature is mostly just an uncorrected oversight on behalf of those who set up our political and legal systems without the benefit of foresight.
ThrustVectoring··on IBM CEO expects AI to replace back office workers (such as human resources)
All other productivity increases from back-office type jobs have historically been eaten up by expanding bureaucratic requirements. These jobs tend to not get replaced by technological improvements, but rather the requirements demanded of them expand to meet the product of existing headcounts and improved productivity.

In this case, the likely result is a wash as increased ability to respond to administrative requests gets met with increased ability to make administrative requests.

ThrustVectoring··on EVE Online player uses obscure rule to pull off biggest heist in game history
> I wonder if it still works to contract for PLEX with a unit of measure missing. (Getting one for 10000000 instead of 100000000)

Still extremely common to get attempted, although due to the current UI it's usually listing something for billions when it should be millions. Also common is describing the contract as "500 plex" but the actual contract content is "1 plex".

> A long while later, rank up in the “inventory” management roles and fly or bump ships out of the bubble to waiting “real” corp members.

Player-owned Upwell structures have largely replaced POSes so that basically isn't a thing anymore. What is a thing is using a Black Ops battleship to conduit jump expensive ships off of tether into a waiting gank. It's honestly a UI/design oversight, if your ship can fit a covert ops cloak and you're close enough to a blops in your fleet, you can get involuntarily yeeted to any system within jump range.

ThrustVectoring··on Police sue rapper Afroman for using footage of home raid in his music videos
> Why is there seemingly no accountability going on?

Warrants are petitioned for by district attorneys, who are elected officials. In principle, the means of redress for inappropriately pushing for warrants and improperly using prosecutorial discretion is at the ballot box.

ThrustVectoring··on The collapse of SVB exposes the largest crack in the economy
You only get paid to take on risk. If SVB hedged away the interest-rate risk that they take on by buying long-term bonds, they would no longer be taking on as much risk and thus no longer potentially earning as much profit.
ThrustVectoring··on First Republic Bank files 8-K – Tech only 4% of total deposits; no sector >9%
The mortgage is one of the assets seized by the FDIC and sold off to meet bank liabilities. On your end little should change in the short term, and you may have a different owner for the mortgage at some point (and as I understand it, your mortgage changing ownership is a fairly common occurrence in general). As far as payment and servicing goes, there should be continuity in how that is handled.

In short, you'll still owe somebody, it just won't be a bank that doesn't exist anymore. Over the short run, the FDIC or an acquiring bank will take over the back-end of the payments, which will be made much the same way as they are today.

ThrustVectoring··on Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank
Nice stories, and I don't doubt that some money can be productively invested. But does the marginal dollar saved wind up in a productive investment, or does it wind up malinvested? In other words, is money the bottleneck for increasing productivity, or is it figuring out improved processes and predicting the future economic landscape?
ThrustVectoring··on Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank
Savings don't grow, not in real terms and on a societal scale. A miniscule fraction of real goods and services in the economy can get buried in the basement and saved for thirty years.
ThrustVectoring··on CheatGPT
Web dev still has tons of weird bugs, tend to be in the interactions between multiple frameworks and edge cases in the assumptions they make. Like, I had one issue with intermittent test failures in Ruby on Rails, not reproducible with any fixed seed, and not affecting production. The overall source of it was:

1. We had a table from a third-party API that used their ID as a primary key, I believe stored as a string.

2. Ruby on Rails believed that it should make sure that primary keys aren't a too-large-to-store integer before attempting to save a row.

3. Our test suite would generate fake hexadecimal strings for the primary key for testing purposes for the table.

4. Sometimes, the hexadecimal string would have enough leading 0-9 digits that when Rails coerced it to an integer for their own internal checks, it would exceed the integer limit it thought the table ought to have.

I honestly only figured it out by getting lucky.

ThrustVectoring··on What does “excess liquidity sloshing around the financial system” mean?
>Some other index fund sees that the price is attractive

Index funds do not have opinions on the attractiveness of prices. What happens in this hypothetical when one index fund has a cash inflow is that it bids on all the assets it is "short" of, which increases the price until the other index funds have "too much" of the now-higher-priced asset and decide to sell.

But generally speaking yes, there's cash or cash-equivalent in the overall market's mix, and it stays relatively constant. When these cash assets get dumped onto balance sheets, other assets get bid up until their sizes are appropriate for the amount of cash around.

ThrustVectoring··on Queues should be empty
I'm not awake/invested enough to make up numbers and do the math here, but shouldn't the cost for provisioning workers and value provided at various latencies matter? Like, each worker you provision costs a certain amount and shifts the latency distribution towards zero by a certain amount, and in principle there should be some function that converts each distribution to a dollar value.

Like, suppose you had a specific service level agreement that requires X% of requests to be served within Y seconds over some time interval, and breaking the SLA costs Z dollars. Each provisioning level would generate some distribution of latencies, which can get turned into likelihood of meeting the SLA, and from there you can put a dollar value on it. And crucially, this allows the "ideal" amount of provisioning to vary based off the relative cost of over and under-provisioning; if workers are cheap and breaking the SLA is costly, you would have more workers than if the SLA is relatively unimportant and workers are expensive.

ThrustVectoring··on What does “excess liquidity sloshing around the financial system” mean?
>What am I getting wrong?

You are correct when taking the view of the financial sector as a whole - every asset purchase merely swaps who has the cash and who has the asset. You're not getting much of anything wrong, merely missing a behavioral trait of many market participants: they desire a fixed ratio between their various financial assets. An extreme example of this is an index fund, which has a formulaic relationship between their book value and how much of what assets they own.

In essence, what happens is that cash gets dumped into the laps of various market participants, who then notice that they have "too much" cash. They then bid on various assets until there no longer is "too much" cash in the system for the total value of assets around.

ThrustVectoring··on Where do stolen bikes go?
It's not that complicated, legally speaking. The rightful owner gets to get their stuff back, and the new "owner" has a claim against the purveyor of stolen goods for the purchase price.
ThrustVectoring··on TB patient has violated health orders for a year – could jail be next?
401k accounts are generally exempt from bankruptcy proceedings and other debt-collection activities.
ThrustVectoring··on Effective altruism has a sexual harassment problem, women say
Not to say that it isn't a problem or that the community shouldn't do better, but this seems like the sort of stuff you could dredge up about pretty much any group of comparable size. I'm intensely curious about the decision-making process that got this article published.
ThrustVectoring··on An IP attorney’s reading of the Stable Diffusion class action lawsuit
Fair use as a legal doctrine has significant practical problems - specifically, it's an open legal question with mind-bogglingly large sums of money at stake until and unless you get sued and spend six-figure sums in court to find out. Prudent risk management will forgo all sorts of activities that are clearly fair use under US law but happen to piss off large companies with expansive legal departments.
ThrustVectoring··on The Point of the Banach-Tarski Theorem
The points in the sphere are uncountably many - you can't give each one a room number.
ThrustVectoring··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
Even without a single-subject rule, there's zero enforcement mechanism to prevent other interest groups from reneging on the packaging agreement and defeating one or more parts in detail. There's no stable point you can get via referenda if (policy A + policy B), (policy not-A), and (policy not-B) all would garner majority votes.
ThrustVectoring··on Women overinvesting in education? Evidence from the medical profession (2012)
> Additionally, another possible explanator of our findings is that women earn utility from pursuing the work of doctors above the utility that they would earn from their work as PAs and that this counteracts the small financial disadvantage of entering the medical profession. There is some evidence in other fields that individuals are willing to accept a wage decrement in order to obtain a “more interesting ”position" (see, e.g., Stern 2004). It is difficult to dispute this hypothesis.

The nonwage job utility hypothesis is one that is typically completely ignored when discussing wage gaps. I'm not sure what proportion of which wage gaps are explained by this - and with how politically charge the topic is, I doubt there will ever be a confident consensus range. Intuitively, most people have some extent to which they're more willing to work a more prestigious, less difficult, less time-consuming, more fulfilling, etc job even if it pays worse. It's a lot easier to measure wages, though, which makes them a particularly tempting fixation.

ThrustVectoring··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
> If 20% of the population wants something, 10% opposes it, and 70% doesnt care if it passes

That isn't the hypothetical I'm using to make my point. Obviously if you change the hypothetical you come up with different results, but then it isn't the scenario I'm using as an intuition pump.

Like, what I'm getting at is that there are sometimes policies you want your government to pass, even though more people oppose it than support it and nobody being truly undecided. Not all policy choices are equally important, and not everyone considers all policy choices equally important. A referendum is structurally incapable of enacting policies with minority support, for good or for bad. It's usually for good, true, but there are circumstances where you can do better by making sure that people think that the important policies are implemented, even at the cost of the majority not getting their way on relatively unimportant matters.

ThrustVectoring··on JPMorgan to spend $1B on rental homes in the US to become a megalandlord
Sure, you technically have the right to file a lawsuit, possibly in small claims court. The question is whether exercising your rights leaves you better off as a practical matter. Like, there's a similar issue with most credit-card based disputes with merchants, where you technically can file a chargeback, but practically speaking you'd rather not get blacklisted from Amazon/Uber/whatever so that's off the table completely.
ThrustVectoring··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
In this hypothetical, the rest do object to the pet issues of others in the coalition, but only weakly. Like, I personally would vote against corn subsidies by itself, for abortion rights, and for a package of (corn subsidies plus abortion rights). The exact policies I mentioned don't particularly matter, I'm sure you can find your own set of two issues that you'd vote this way on if it came down to it - the issues you have an opinion on, but you'd hold your nose and concede the issue if it was the price of something really important to you.

And when two or more minority interest groups feel this way on each other's issues, it is a failure to enact the "will of the people" if you use strict issue-by-issue majoritarianism. After all, each individual pet issue fails on its own merits - they just aren't broadly popular enough.

Fundamentally, the issue is that strengths of preferences do not show up in a referendum on a topic. Furthermore, there's no way to credibly commit to a compromise that gets you something important in exchange for a relatively unimportant concession. I'm not saying these issues outweigh the benefits of direct democracy, they're just problems that can get solved by a representative system.

ThrustVectoring··on JPMorgan to spend $1B on rental homes in the US to become a megalandlord
> What if you have a dispute with this landlord - can you compete in court with their lawyers?

Bold of you to assume that they wouldn't just cancel your lease, share your do-not-rent status with the other mega-landlords, and hope that homelessness makes you go away.

ThrustVectoring··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
Okay, make the hypothetical be malaria nets or insulin then. The exact specifics don't matter all that much, it's just an illustration that you can't use issue-by-issue majoritarianism to generate a coalition that can pass a broadly popular group of policies that lacks individual plank-by-plank popularity. There's no enforcement mechanism to coordinate a "you vote for my pet issue and I'll vote for yours".
ThrustVectoring··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
Something like a policy proposal costing a low but non-zero amount of money for exactly zero benefit outside of the eyes of the 10% who really care about their pet cause. The non-packaged proposals get voted down not because the majority hates them, but because they don't care, at least not like the special interest does.

If a vector space is more your jam, imagine a six-dimensional vector space of policies, and each of these six hypothetical interest groups as voting for any combination of policies with a positive value along the axis in question, and against any combination of policies with a negative value. [100, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1], [-1, 100, -1, -1, -1, -1], etc, will each get voted down when presented individually as policies, but their sum as a package gets supported by each interest group.

ThrustVectoring··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
> So when a democracy is representative, the minority's will can override the majority's will?

Yes, and this is a feature, not a bug. Majority voting on issues one at a time cannot generate a deal that a majority would prefer when the compromise is presented as a block. Eg, if there are six different compatible single-issues that 10% of the people care solely about each, each individual one would get voted down 90-10, while representatives can make a bargain that delivers a combined platform approved of by 60%.

ThrustVectoring··on NY Sabotages Right to Repair Bill [video]
Pure majoritarianism isn't necessarily best either, it just always takes the majority's side in disputes where a strongly-held minority opinion comes in conflict with a weakly-held majority one. Like, it's obvious that you should take the side of the majority when it's "we'd rather not be slightly inconvenienced by paying for rent-seekers" regardless of how intensely the minority of rent-seekers want to rent-seek, but it's much less obvious that we should have zero handouts to narrow interests when it's "please spend $10000 per life saved via rare-disease research and treatment, I don't care how little the general public is aware of and cares about it and would generally prefer lower taxes"
ThrustVectoring··on Southwest cancels 5,400 flights in less than 48 hours
At $1200 it's likely cheaper to buy a used car at your origin and sell it at your destination. Availability is also probably less fucked up than the rental market.
ThrustVectoring··on Ask HN: What are your best and safest investment options?
> I'm based in Europe if that matters.

You'll have to do research into your particular retirement programs and what tax advantages they have, but other than that it should be roughly the same as anyone else's.

> What options do I have?

Hedge funds spend billions of dollars and hire teams of math PhDs trying to beat the market. You are a single software developer. You are not going to do better than average. Fortunately, there's an extremely easy and low-cost way to guarantee average performance: broad-market index funds. These will charge a ludicrously low amount of overhead (something like .04% annually) in order to buy basically everything the market as a whole buys in the same ratios as the market buys.

> I also perfectly understand that safe means lower return and I'm perfectly fine with that, since I am going into this for a long term.

IMO the correct approach for long-term investing is to set aside money you are perfectly okay with never seeing again, and literally not checking how the market is performing at all, while maximizing return regardless of risk. Long-term underperformance is actually a bigger risk over 30+ years than any number of market crashes, at least while you're underneath the Kelly Criterion (and even a 100% equities portfolio is comfortably below this).

> Also, any useful resources regarding investment would be helpful (YouTube channels, books, etc.).

https://bogleheads.org/

ThrustVectoring··on Green hydrogen is the centerpiece of Australia’s clean-economy growth plan
>keep more of the profit in Australia

It really wouldn't. China has decided to turn an absolutely massive amount of iron ore into steel for non-economic reasons, which means that the profits to be made are largely in supplying them with raw materials.

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