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205 karma · joined September 14, 2019

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_edo··on The Highest Suicide Rate in the World
> Nunavut’s rate is 100 per 100,000, ten times higher than the rest of Canada and seven times higher than the US.

Ok, that's bad.

But we can connect that to the US: white males with no college, aged 45-54, have a suicide rate of 38.8 and a poisoning (overdose) rate of 58.0[0]. Put those together and that's pushing 100 per 100,000. That's enough to start asking some cultural questions.

However, "During 1999–2003, the suicide rate among Nunavut males aged 15 to 19 was estimated to exceed 800 per 100,000 population, compared to around 14 for the general Canadian male population in that age group."[1]

800 per 100,000? This statistic is staggering for a couple of reasons: its magnitude and the age range.

The graphs in [3] show just how young and male the suicides among the Inuit are. It's no surprise that it's primarily male, because it almost always is, but it is surprising to see an 8:1 ratio and that it's affecting the youth so heavily. For comparison, in the United States the 15-24 age range is near the bottom of the suicide statistics[4].

These are boys born in the 1980's. As bad as the crimes against the Inuits may have been in the 1950's it's a strange territory to wander into where an effect of an atrocity shows up 50 years late in a population that wasn't alive yet. From wikipedia[2]: "...to about 170 in 2002. Some of the reasons given include adverse childhood experiences involving emotional neglect and abuse, family violence and substance abuse, as well as social inequalities brought on by government intervention." (referencing [3]) I can see the argument the author is making here but I don't have the time to address it.

The article is giving the "white guilt" narrative and for whatever reason is dancing around the massive gender disparity in suicide rates. When I see articles like this I wonder how much the author cares about suicide and how much they see it as a platform to write about anti-colonialism.

[0] - Table 1 https://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15078 [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_Canada [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_Canada#Among_the_In... [3] - https://www.iwgia.org/images/publications//IA_4_07.pdf#page=... [4] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Crude_US_suicide_rate_by_...

_edo··on WeWork’s Adam Neumann Steps Down as CEO
Or you could serve a lot of people, it's probably easier.

Sell something for $10 that's worth $12 to the buyer and costs you $8 to make. Repeat a billion times. The people you did business with got an extra $2 billion, you got $2 billion, everybody's better off.

_edo··on Will America's debt doom us?
The financing of long-term Public Goods has to be one of the best arguments for government debt there is.

I'm not against debt[0] so much as I like interesting units and metrics. If you want to compare debt levels of different countries across history getting the local currency to cancel out means no converting 1870 dollars to 2019 dollars, no converting 1920 Yen to 1995 Azerbaijani Manats, etc.

The fact that Debt-to-GDP reduces to years, even if it's unclear what that means, lets us make years-to-years comparisons and makes charts like this possible[1].

[0] - Though I think what it's being spent on really matters cough: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Gdp_to_debt_...

_edo··on Money as a System of Control (2017)
No, it's not. Because life isn't that simple.

Investors and lenders play an important role in the economy. If theft makes what they do impossible it will cause a drop in the total productivity of the country as a whole. Which is to say stealing from them, especially at scale, is likely to cause far more starvation than it will solve.

Your idea has been tried: the peasants were hungry, it was the Kulaks with the excess food and money and the process of taking it from them was called dekulakization. Between 500,000 and 5,000,000 people died. This also led to the Holodomor with its estimated 7.5 million dead.

This all started with the observation that there were rich people and poor people right next to each other, and that taking from the rich to give to the poor must be a good thing. But it turned out to be one of the worst events in human history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dekulakization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

_edo··on Will America's debt doom us?
> Because debt-to-GDP is apples-to-nonsense.

No it's not. Debt is measured in dollars. GDP is dollars per year.

Debt/GDP is $/($/yr)=yr

This ratio converts debt, a number it's hard to have intuition for, to years. It tells us how many years of productivity we owe. For those of us who don't manage $30 billion in assets years of productivity probably carries more meaning than big numbers with 12 zeros.

_edo··on Money as a System of Control (2017)
If you get rid of the part where you have to repay your debts, it's just theft.
_edo··on Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard [pdf]
> There is no bias towards admitting females./ They do however emphasize top-of-funnel outreach for women to try to get more to apply.

The 266/267 ratio of acceptance letters is probably too good to be true, it's hard to believe they could so perfectly calibrate this outreach program.

If the school is spending money recruiting females and not males it demonstrates they're more valued even before starting the application process. That's a bias, and I know at my school that bias which started before the application process extended all the way through the 4 year experience and even into the hiring process where companies have internal numbers to hit.

I have a lot of respect for Caltech and they deserve credit for not taking part in the widespread anti-Asian discrimination.

_edo··on Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard [pdf]
> look at Caltech...[who] famously did not hire Emmy Noether because she was female

What? I'm having trouble finding a reference. I know the story that she faced discrimination and Hilbert vouched for her, but that was in Germany. I didn't know there was any from Caltech.

Why is it assumed that we have to rag on people? If we are ragging on people, what standards are we using? Obviously it's still ok to get artificial help to the top if you're in some groups, but not in others. That means it's ok to be discriminated against if you're in some groups, too.

Speaking of Caltech, female applicants have 3x the chance of getting into Caltech as male applicants[0]. It's almost certain that qualified males aren't getting in because they're males. That was the problem with Emmy Noether: she was qualified but couldn't get in because she was female. If the discrimination right now is against the males, why are we talking about Emmy Noether being forced to audit classes in 1903 on the other side of the world?

If we assume "equality" in the groups of male and female students applying to Caltech for 2016-2017, meaning they both should have the same acceptance rate, then 134 seats were taken from the guys because they're guys and given to the girls because they're girls. Maybe you can argue the girls only apply if they're really serious, but 3x?

[0] - https://www.parchment.com/c/college/college-178-Caltech.html...

edit: here's a better data source: https://nces.ed.gov/collegenavigator/?q=caltech&s=CA&l=93&id...

It shows 3x admissions advantage for females with over 2x enrollment advantage. Everybody's saying they don't do affirmative action but it's hard to believe at least for gender. But the racial demographics are extremely different from Harvard's so maybe the female applicant pool really is 2x as likely to be qualified. I need more data.

_edo··on Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard [pdf]
Table 6.

The numbers you pointed out:

White LDC 3rd Decile: 16.67% White non-ALDC 10th Decile: 15.27%

The "much smaller gap" that I chose to focus on:

African American non-ALDC 4th Decile: 12.76% Asian American non-ALDC 10th Decile: 12.69%

3rd vs. 10th decile in one case is worth an academic paper with 3 authors collaborating from 3 different universities. Plus their associations with NBER and IZA.

4th vs 10th decile in the other case is something I was socially conditioned to see and is not worth focusing on at all.

I think that if the study's authors had completely messed up a spreadsheet and replaced the numbers for the White LDC/White non-ALDC columns with the numbers from the African American non-ALDC/Asian American non-ALDC columns, you would suddenly find those numbers to be troubling.

_edo··on Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard [pdf]
Table 5 and 6.

If you're a random (non-ALDC) African American in the 30-40% (4th decile) range for academics you have the same chance of getting in as an Asian American in the top 10%. They each have about a 12% chance.

> Our model of admissions shows that roughly three quarters of white ALDC admits would have been rejected if they had been treated as white non-ALDCs.

If we're looking at how group membership affects acceptance rates, why not ask how many white ALDC admits would get in if treated as African American non-ALDCs? Why not ask how many Asians would get in if treated like Hispanics? Why not ask how many African Americans would get in if treated like Asians? The whole paper looks like a reflection of the cultural value that it's a good thing to go after rich white people, a bad thing to go after anybody else.

The interesting comparison is in Table 6 Panel B: White LDC vs African American non-LDC. For the top 60% academically just being black carries about as much advantage as being in the elite 4% (roughly) of white people who have some form of deep connections to the school. If you're in the bottom 40% you're better off being white with connections.

_edo··on Climate capitalists have serious money in climate-friendly investments
My.....technocratic oligarchy? Sure, yeah.

Notice you have to assume that most people agree on what's good and that you know what that is. It's a solved problem, it's just a matter of implementing it.

> If I invest $100 in protecting a public good....So I'll only invest if everyone else chips in, too.

Public goods are non-rivalrous, another person consuming the good has no effect on you. So out of spite you're going to go against your own best interest because you think it's better to punish other people than to purchase a good that you would purchase if you could just figure out how to exclude them from using it. That's valuing the suffering of others over your own well-being. Going back to how hard it is to figure out what people think is "good".....

_edo··on America has two economies, and they’re diverging fast
I would really enjoy seeing an article like this paired with analysis from somebody with the same education level but from the University of Chicago economics department or something like that. They'd probably tell two very different stories. A few things that jumped out at me:

Two of the sectors where the author is touting gains for Democrats both have significant left-leaning bias: academia and tech. How does that play into this?

Democrats are getting more college degrees now, but which degrees?

Why start so many graphs of Democrats doing better than Republicans in 2008 when we had a big recession and a new president who didn't prioritize rural America? Why not go back to 2000 or 1990 so we can get a bigger picture?

And pardon my ignorance, but "GDP per seat"? And why is this graph next to Median household income? Are they saying that the changes in median household income are causing "GDP per seat" to rise? Urban populations have changed a lot in the past 10 years, are we even talking about the same households?

Household income statistics are prone to distortions[0], GDP per seat is probably prone to even more, why not use GDP per capita? It feels like they were just happy to find two graphs where the Democrat line went up and the Republican line went down and they know most people will just glance at the graph without wasting their morning thinking about what GDP per seat really means and how it's affected by the population flows of the past decade.

[0] - https://www.creators.com/read/thomas-sowell/09/16/misleading...

_edo··on Climate capitalists have serious money in climate-friendly investments
If you want all of our productivity and competition to go towards something good you have to decide what good means. Is is it the total sum of all the wants and needs of society being matched up with our resources as efficiently as possible? Or is good something chosen by a small group of people using their superior knowledge and wisdom?
_edo··on French high court rules that Steam can’t ban users from reselling digital games
We're getting pretty far off-track which is what I was trying to avoid but ok, I'll try to bring it back around.

I believe a human being has a fundamental right to their own labor, and even if this isn't the case I think we do best acting as if it is. Socialists of all stripes disagree with me; if the state is to claim control of everybody's labor of course you can't hold this right as sacrosanct.

I agree that a market system requires laws and regulations to function. That doesn't mean we should be blindly regulating in the name of consumer rights without thought for the consequences and whether or not it even works. This is why we have the field of economics.

In this case the intended goal of helping the consumer by increasing their "freedom" probably won't be met. Either because 1. game developers can't get funding to develop future games without a stable revenue model so they stop making games, or 2. they realize they can get funding so long as they never actually give the consumer the full game. This leads to the server model where some core functionality of the game only runs on the server and you buy a subscription. Either way, you start with the intention of giving consumers more ownership of games and they end up with less ownership than they started with.

We could spend the next few days waxing intellectual about what freedom really means and all that or we can realize that the plan just doesn't work in meeting its own goals.

_edo··on French high court rules that Steam can’t ban users from reselling digital games
> The only person who loses by locking up digital goods is the consumer.

In the short term they my be losing out (kind of. It's like how I lose out when I don't steal at the grocery store.) but in the long term they're gaining because the companies making the goods they're purchasing get to stay in business.

It's a trade-off. Do you want video game consumers to have a short-term boost because everything's free, or do you want them to have a healthy game development ecosystem where talented devs can get loans to make good games because they'll have a predictable revenue stream from sales. You can try to balance the two, but you can't give them both.

Really all of this I want it free, I want it now just leads to free-to-play games where the developer recoups costs through micro-transactions, loot-boxes, pay-to-play items, etc. And in this model you probably never own the game at all. If the user can't be trusted to own the game, then never give them a complete game! Always keep part of it on your own servers. Force them to log in, force them to be connected, force them to have an active credit card number on file.

If we demand to resell/copy/trade the digital goods we purchase without restriction then this is the world we get - we stream movies, we stream music, we connect to game servers, but we never possess any of it. We never listen to a song without Spotify taking notice and putting it in our file. We never watch a movie in privacy without Netflix, "oh, he's watched Fight Club three times this week." We never get to play a game without server-side analytics being run to look at how tweaking the boss difficulty affects sales of the super-sword.

It's not as simple as saying locking up digital goods hurts the consumer.

_edo··on French high court rules that Steam can’t ban users from reselling digital games
Really it's the seller's freedom that matters first. It's their product, it's their labor, they can offer to sell it to anybody who's happy with the terms. The buyer has the freedom to buy or not buy the product. In this view intellectual property law is only enforcing the terms of the voluntary contract.

On Orwell. I was commenting that I could accuse the accuser of Orwellianism of Orwellianism. But I could do it with the advantage that their version includes using the machinery of the state to call a restriction of a freedom a freedom.

I don't think it's productive to argue over who's really Mr(s). 1984. Instead we can accept that we're talking about trade-offs in freedoms, that it will be complicated, and go from there.

_edo··on A ‘Grass-Roots’ Campaign to Take Down Amazon Is Funded By Its Biggest Rivals
> Amazon paid NO income taxes last year.

This is not true. They paid no federal income tax which is not the same as no income tax. In 2018 they paid $1.2 billion globally[0] and I don't understand how much they paid domestically because deferred income tax is confusing to me.[1]

Taxes are extremely complicated and a lot of people (politicians especially) will pick one or two numbers that support their narrative. They know most people won't spend the time researching the context surrounding their "statistics" and they also bank on how people will misunderstand what they're reporting.

You just said "NO income taxes last year." The people popularizing the "no federal income taxes" meme know a lot of people will think it means "no income taxes."

[0] - https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/amzn/financials [1] - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deferredincometax.asp

_edo··on French high court rules that Steam can’t ban users from reselling digital games
> Funny how you can make the same comment about physical goods.

No, you can't. That's why this is such a complicated issue.

The inherent value in a physical good is consumed with use. If somebody buys a couch and takes it home it becomes a used couch. Used couches are not great substitutes for new couches; they devalue with time and use and you eventually have to pay somebody just to take it off your hands. Its value actually goes negative.

A used digital good is a perfect substitute for the original. A digital copy is also a perfect substitute for the original. That changes everything. If we want people to be able to make games professionally, and to be compensated for their work, we have to use laws to make the digital marketplace resemble the physical goods marketplace. Or find a whole new model which I don't believe anybody has done.

_edo··on French high court rules that Steam can’t ban users from reselling digital games
I'm pressing F for the golden years of Sierra :(

> decreasing their opportunity for first-sale revenue increases the opportunity cost of making such a game.

I don't understand the use of 'opportunity cost' here but I think it's a good point. It's generally not good to discourage viable business models. My fear is that if we're baking in resale value to the purchase price, now consumers may overvalue both the game AND the resale so they get hit twice in a blockbuster/flop type situation.

Short of offering resale/final-sale options, which I do like, the laws will encourage some sort of business model. I'm thinking encouraging long-term quality through final-sale only purchasing is looking a little better for consumers than what the French court is apparently doing.

Another option is reselling could be done through Steam who takes 30% which they split with the devs. So the consumer gets to resell, Steam gets paid, devs get paid, maybe any lost revenues are offset by consumer wellbeing?

_edo··on French high court rules that Steam can’t ban users from reselling digital games
GP currently has the ability to buy a product in a way they like (not purchasing resale rights that they don't want.)

Somebody wants to take that away from them.

GP is upset they're losing the freedom to do business in the way they like.

You're calling their view Orwellian because French Big Brother knows what ownership rights they really want to purchase?

It's not Orwellian, it's just a complicated issue of how intellectual property law affects consumers.

_edo··on French high court rules that Steam can’t ban users from reselling digital games
With laws like this you generally have to ask what's best for the consumer. I'm not sure reselling is.

The current setup gives game developers a somewhat predictable revenue model and on the strength of that model they can encourage investors to put up money to make the games. Changing the revenue model may change how investors look at the market. Maybe for better maybe for worse. Who knows, but it would be a disruption if Steam has to adopt this model worldwide.

The thing that I don't like is if you allow reselling then developers get less long-term revenue but (hopefully) more short-term revenue. This will cause them to focus more on getting a big opening weekend than making a solid game that might have years of appeal.

Portal is still $10 on Steam. Maybe they only sell 100 copies a month at this point but that's still money coming in rewarding them for investing in interesting core game mechanics. I'd rather see them get rewarded for that than for dishonest advertising campaigns because 50% of their money will come from the first few days of sales.

_edo··on Lectures in Quantitative Economics with Python [pdf]
Chapter 21 in the attached pdf gives a brief overview.

There's also a (very challenging, I would guess 150-300 hours time commitment) MIT course online: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-06sc-linear-algeb... But it has videos.

I would focus on Chapter 21 in the pdf because it tells you exactly what you need for this application. And supplement it as needed.

_edo··on Man Who Hired Deadly Swatting Gets 15 Months
I've watched the video several times, still don't know what he was doing with his hands.

Obviously in retrospect the police were in zero danger, there was no hostage, the house wasn't really doused in gasoline. There was no way for them to know that. We've had 20 months to think about what happened that day from the safety of our homes. They had seconds to deal with the situation unfolding in real time while believing their lives and the life of a hostage were in danger.

_edo··on Man Who Hired Deadly Swatting Gets 15 Months
There was no SWAT, only police.

Pointing a gun is a deadly threat and it's hard to believe (assuming this was a real hostage situation) he couldn't make out even one outline of a human to take aim at.

The police thought they were at the scene of a murder/hostage situation. They weren't just protecting their own lives, they were there to protect the life of the hostage from somebody who they believed had committed murder just minutes before.

Given ten minutes to think about the situation maybe the officer who fired the shot would take a different course of action. But he didn't have ten minutes, he had half a second.

_edo··on UCLA’s 1948 Mechanical Computer [video]
Very cool.

Also, if you're into this sort of thing here's the first in a seven video series on a very different mechanical computer - Albert Michelson's Harmonic Analyzer which does Fourier Analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAsM30MAHLg

_edo··on Tesla 'Plaid' Model S crushes Porsche Taycan's Nürburgring time, witness says
The fact we're even entertaining the thought of an electric car (a 4-door sedan!) going sub-7:30 at the Nurburgring is crazy. It wasn't long ago none of this seemed possible.

The Porsche Taycan's 7:42 is a major achievement whether or not Tesla tops it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_N%C3%BCrburgring_Nords...

_edo··on Man Who Hired Deadly Swatting Gets 15 Months
You've had to change the definitions of several words in order to keep your narrative going.

You refuse to admit the difference between a peaceful and by-force arrest because you're expanding the definition of the word violence and apparently would like to talk about it.

You've expanded the definition of the word 'murder' to no longer require intent.

You've expanded the meaning of "choked to death" beyond what any reasonable person would expect it to mean.

If the police had gone out there and violently murdered somebody by choking them to death I would be very angry. That's simply not what happened and if you believe it is maybe you should examine exactly how you came to that conclusion.

_edo··on Man Who Hired Deadly Swatting Gets 15 Months
Seriously?

1. He resisted arrest. He clearly stated his intent to resist arrest. He was given the option to be peacefully arrested, which he declined. In the resulting forcible arrest he was choked, which is wrong, he shouldn't have been choked, but he absolutely wasn't "just standing on the sidewalk" - he was resisting arrest.

2. When you say he was choked to death people might get the impression that there was intent to kill him or that he died on the spot from asphyxiation instead of later from a heart attack. (edit: roughly a heart attack. The coroner listed several pre-existing conditions that contributed, including heart disease, but didn't say "heart attack")

Since we've had literal riots over things like this I think it's appropriate to ask that we all try to stick to the facts.

_edo··on Man Who Hired Deadly Swatting Gets 15 Months
The anti-cop sentiment in this thread is disturbing.

I live in a bad neighborhood where gunshots are common. Since I've lived here there have probably been dozens of homicides within a .5 mile radius. Living here has changed my perception of officer involved shootings.

People don't realize how quickly things go from a slightly weird situation to bullets in the air. It goes from somebody standing funny, maybe they have a hand behind their back or they're holding a towel in a weird way, then bullets. Fast. A quarter of a second separates "that's weird" from "oh no somebody's shooting."

If you've ever dropped your phone and had to figure out what to do before it hits the ground that's about as much time as police have to make these life-and-death decisions.

In this particular situation, the police believed they were arriving to a hostage situation where somebody had already been killed.

What happened is tragic. If you've ever dug into this story it's heartbreaking. At the same time I don't think the anger at police lines up with what happened here at all.

_edo··on Man Who Hired Deadly Swatting Gets 15 Months
> choking a guy selling cigarettes to death.

Please don't spread misinformation about a tragedy that's been used to create so much division in this country.

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