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_hypx

1,022 karma · joined December 9, 2021

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_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
First of all, I'm sure the shortage of minivans is related to Covid-19 and probably due to lack of parts. There's no helping that.

The problem with BEVs is that they are a very limited solution that does not work for everyone. Toyota is likely aware that it is going to be a transitional technology, and is making the decision to not waste too much resources pursuing this market. All of the cars companies that have will likely go through bitter process where they scale back or abandon their BEV investments. We've seen this happen with diesel. And if/when it happens again with batteries, it will just represent another example of Toyota being ahead of the curve rather than being stuck in short-term thinking.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
That's likely a deficiency of your VW diesel. VW never properly designed them correctly, and that includes not meeting emissions. Other car engines likely won't have that many issues.

Once you deal with the eventuality of a dead battery, it will easily trump all repair costs of ICE cars. People are just pretending it won't happen to them.

Also, an FCEV is an electric car too, and doesn't have that many mechanical parts either. It also lacks a giant battery. Basic engineering suggests it will be the cheapest type of car of all to maintain once they hit critical mass.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
That's just blatantly false: https://www.gasworld.com/story/wood-to-expand-us-hydrogen-pi...

In reality, hydrogen is much cheaper than expanding the grid. You are basically dismissing basic physics with nationalism. Whichever country you're from, it too will find out that is cheaper to build a hydrogen network rather than massive grid expansion.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
You're just being brainwashed by BEV propaganda. It is not a sustainable solution and does not work for the majority of car buyers. There will come a day when we will laugh at your decision in the same way we laugh at the diesel car. Ethanol/flexfuel cars in the US too. Eventually, everyone will be forced to scale back or outright abandon BEVs, and adopt the next wave of technology such as FCEVs or some other type of hydrogen car.
_hypx··on Unity’s new pricing: A wake-up call on the importance of open source
Redfall sold disastrously. The days of releasing an incomplete game are apparently over.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
Thousands of people refuel with hydrogen regularly. There is no evidence of real danger.

The problem isn't that you can't live with a BEV, it's that you don't have to. People are "fighting the last war." There is a way of making an EV that has zero compromises compared to ICE cars. BEVs in that context are coming obsolete or perhaps niche cars.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
This isn't the 1970s anymore. Very few cars have major repair costs from engine problems. People are just creating an elaborate narrative of cost savings.

Insurance cost data doesn't seem to bore this out. BEVs have pretty decent maintenance costs.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
Pipelines are likely the cheapest option, with trucks for last mile deliveries.

The problem with "power outlets" is that they're heavily dependent on fossil fuel power plants. Since it is an unpredictable variable load, even more so than you think. Which is why it is really a transitional solution. From the beginning, it was about replacing distributed emissions with centralized ones, usually far away from cities. At some point, it became this green fantasy that could seriously replace fossil fuels. It is highly unlikely to do so in reality. Even BEVs will need hydrogen power plants to solve variable grid load problems. Eventually, you'll realize that hydrogen is a mandatory part of the problem, and the battery becomes redundant if not a negative.

_hypx··on Unity’s new pricing: A wake-up call on the importance of open source
Redfall was an incomplete game. Graphics was the least of its problems.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
I'm pretty sure the PHEV Fusion was more expensive. They also gave up on it too soon and without informing the customer that they existed. Toyota is currently selling hybrids and PHEVs without any lack of demand.

The rest of your post is just a giant rant. It touches on way too many points for me to address and it is just mostly just wishful thinking. Case in point, you talk about na-ion batteries as if it was real. I remember people from last year talking about how they already exist, and yet they still don't exist. A classic example of "I'll believe it when I see it." The only thing that seems based in reality is the part where you admit Tesla's build quality is suspect.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
People who have actually driven FCEVs will tell you they work basically identical to BEVs. They make it a point to mention that there are no problems with the cars themselves.

In reality, the moment hydrogen becomes comparably as cheap and available as gasoline or diesel, it is likely the end of the BEV. It is the availability of fuel that is the fundamental problem right now.

_hypx··on Unity’s new pricing: A wake-up call on the importance of open source
Frostbite is a weird example because they focused heavily on graphics over gameplay. It is also an FPS engine that was forced into powering an RPG, and without any real input from the developers in question.

I'm sure most larger gamedev companies can make a decent game engine on their own if extreme performance is not needed. The recent Baldur's Gate is a good example.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
The Mirai is a converted Toyota Crown, and is basically a large luxury car. The Nexo is something like 500 lbs lighter than the Y. Also, at the ranges they provide (350-400 miles), BEVs will need to weigh closer to 5000 lbs to match that.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
No, I have no such connection. A better question is why there are so many people here who "know" the future of cars, despite having zero experience in the automotive industry? This comes off as one of those cultural fad, since people with minimal knowledge feel the need to lecture others.

My position is mostly from the direction of fact checking. People are blatantly BSing about BEVs, and talk about it with zero understanding of real automotive issues. The facts in favor of FCEVs speak for themselves. It is mainly awareness that is the problem.

_hypx··on The way that Jensen Huang runs Nvidia: 40 direct reports, no 1:1s
1) That's the point. A cheap GPU for low-end gamers. Pursuing profits over expanding your business is a bad idea in the long-run.

2) They did, and more importantly did not try to stop it from happening. They could have banned bulk sales or whatever. Through inaction, they created huge shortages.

At the end of the day, their advantage is really via a few things: software support and somewhat more advanced technology. Few people really cares about the actual hardware behind their gaming rigs. In places like game consoles, nVidia already lost a lot of ground because they weren't willing to cut costs.

The vast majority of laptops have integrated GPUs. I don't have exact numbers for laptops, but for PCs in general, it is integrated graphics: https://www.pcgamer.com/intel-is-already-matching-amd-for-ga...

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
Diesel cars at one point made up the majority of European car sales before collapsing. This is still short-sighted thinking.

People really need to stop thinking about current market position and start thinking about the conclusion of each technology. Just like how diesel ultimately led to another fossil fuel burning ICE car, BEVs only lead to heavy and expensive vehicles that are highly dependent on exotic metals. What is the solution to that last problem? It has to be a vehicle that is both zero emissions and doesn’t have weight and resource dependency problems. If you think in that way, you pretty much always end up with a hydrogen powered car of some sort.

_hypx··on Unity’s new pricing: A wake-up call on the importance of open source
Never every game needs to have insane graphics. For a lot of games, “good enough” graphics is fine.
_hypx··on Unity’s new pricing: A wake-up call on the importance of open source
There is a secondary argument in favor of home-grown engines too. It's been very disappointing to see so many game companies abandon their own rendering technology in favor of Unreal. Terrible licensing rules might drive companies to go back to having their own engines.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
Toyota does not live by the timeline of Tesla. It reminds me of the time the Germans became obsessed with diesel whereas Toyota focused on longer term projects. It did not end well for the German car companies. There's a good chance that Tesla's short-term strategy ends up not mattering.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
This is outdated crap from 20 years ago. Virtually all of the problems of dealing with hydrogen have been solved. Even GWP has been known for decades (note: It is all about indirect methane emissions, so it is not particularly real).

The main point is that hydrogen is vastly cheaper and less resource demanding than batteries. You can expect hydrogen cars to be as cheap as ICE cars. Something BEVs can never hope to achieve outside of short-ranged vehicles.

A very plausible scenario is that efficiency of fuel cells and electrolyzers improve to the point where BEVs become obsolete. It's arguable we've already reached that point, and this conversation is just the "solar/wind power is impossible" phase of the conversation.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
This is BEV propaganda. Toyota's hydrogen bet has yet to be even tested. There is a very good chance that batteries get disrupted by hydrogen. In that scenario, almost everyone is decades behind Toyota.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
That's a lot of wishful thinking. Certainly, in places like California and Europe, they're much higher than they can be justified. Gas taxes feed into the general fund instead.

Maintenance costs are just marketing. The moment you factor in battery replacement costs, the advantage collapses. BEV companies just pretend this never happens.

Catalytic convertor theft is not that common. This is more wishful thinking.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
That sounds like a very minor problem. EV fans just love false drama it seems.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
That's nothing compared to all conventional cars.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
Gas is usually heavily taxed. Maintenance costs are absurdly exaggerated (especially when compared to the long-term cost of battery replacement) and catalytic convertor theft is covered by insurance.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
That either involve subsidies or significant sacrifices. The problem is that right now, a hybrid cost around $25k. It takes something like a decade of driving before you can reach cost parity, and that is assuming you have access to cheap electricity. e-SUVs and trucks are even more non-competitive.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
It takes zero effort to make an EV. They are incredibly simple vehicles.

People really need to let go of their EV fanboyism (and likely that includes Tesla fanboyism). In reality, if EVs were the future, Toyota would start making vast numbers of them in just a few years.

The real issue is that BEVs are not cost effective right now, and show no sign of that happening anytime soon. Until then, PHEVs and hybrids make a lot of sense.

PS: A lot of these Chinese EV makers are scam companies propped up by the Chinese government. They have no ability beyond shoving giant batteries into generic chassis.

_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
It takes no effort to make an EV. They are the simplest type of car imaginable. They even pre-date ICE cars.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
Hydrogen in a car would be gas the whole time. It is just compressed high enough that the tanks can fit in a car.
_hypx··on Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap
If you're assuming it is compressed, to say 700 bar, then it would have a higher volumetric density.
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