abcampbell

The premise is that you should consider your broad life portfolio, and with sufficient reflection, most people would probably want to diversify their life. Have written about this before:

http://www.snow.ventures/blog/2015/12/10/diverisify-your-lif...

And yes, everything is connected, but connected to different degrees. That's just an input in how you think about your risk.

We cannot entirely escape system risk (insofar as we are all part of one big system) but that doesn't mean we can't diversify away from out exposure to individual systems (bay area tech for example).

I don't think you are hearing the argument if this is your synthesis.

The article is saying that from an investment perspective it doesn't make sense to buy a house in SF right now if you work in tech.

It's not saying you shouldn't in general. If you derive a ton of value from buying a house, buy a house, just understand the risks of doing it, and buy less house so that if it goes down and you lose your tech job, it's not ruinous.

You can see that in the video in the article. The rise and fall of the blue dots over time.

SF housing didn't go bust during the 2001, but there was significantly less leverage in the system and home prices were significantly more affordable.

This time is different.

If you like this, I have put up a bunch of the data that went into the analysis on the blog. Using tableau public to drive interactive visualizations (which is meh).

http://www.snow.ventures/blog/

Open to feedback!

I find it kind of funny that people are surprised by this.

Reading the paper, it also feels like the authors derive entirely the wrong recommendations from this result.

Seems like they have identified a set of reasonable problems they encountered in trying to reproduce these studies. Fair enough.

To think that the solution is just to add a lot of documentation requirements on the researcher to address those specific problems just seems totally naive.

This would inevitably act as a form of regulatory structure on top of all the gruff people have to go through to get results 'published.' In doing so, this would also add cost and complexity to an already archaic system, and in a way that does not deal with the underlying root causes that are creating these problems.