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agentofoblivion

653 karma · joined October 2, 2016

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agentofoblivion··on Ask HN: What was your best $1000 investment?
When I was younger, I was frugal about everything. I scrutinized every purchase with "do I REALLY need it?" Sometime later I figured out that if the thing is going to help me get closer to my goals (books, productivity enhancers, computers...etc) and was affordable, then just buy it. Or if it will save me time such that I can work on something else (i.e. Pay someone to mow the lawn), also worth it. This thinking has substantially changed my life for the better.
agentofoblivion··on Confession as an AI researcher; seeking advice
I think the real issue is that the OP has a mistaken expectation that they should understand everything. For instance, the group that wrote the Wasserstein GAN paper are surely those that think night and day about distance metrics. And they might be totally lost reading a paper about some energy based method that relies on concepts from physics.

The point is that researchers have their little niche and they try to make contributions in areas adjacent to it. It's unrealistic to think everyone publishing papers understand all the other papers, particularly in such a cross-disciplinary field like ML. There's also a big gap between a researcher deep in their career and a student fresh out of a masters program.

It's also hard to transition from someone who's used to reading and understanding textbooks to someone who's often reading really technical research and understanding very little of it at first. You just have to push through and have confidence that you'll eventually learn enough to make a contribution. That's what it means to "become an expert"--you start off as not being an expert and then beat your head against the wall for a few years until you bootstrap your way out of it. And if you want to do it in a reasonable amount of time, you should probably choose something you have some of the fundamentals for.

agentofoblivion··on How Facebook generated $709M from adblock users
So Facebook figured out how to cram ads down the throats of people that took specific action to avoid them. Why on earth would advetisers pay to display ads to this group of people? The only group that benefits is Facebook.
agentofoblivion··on Redefine statistical significance
Agree. It doesn't stop p-hacking, it just makes it harder. Definitely treating the symptom instead of the disease. We ultimately need institutional and cultural change, but it's not obvious how to do that in the short term, so making it harder to claim significance might be a step in the right direction.

On the other hand, you might expect that new discoveries by nature have less data since data is likely more expensive for brand new research, and by extension a lower likelihood of meeting these sorts of stringent statistical requirements. Decreasing the p-value threshold may be counter-productive if we dismiss legitimate new discoveries due to essentially economic constraints with data gathering, which would have the impact of making it less likely to get funding to pursue the problem in more depth, thereby slowing the advance of discoveries.

agentofoblivion··on Why isn't everything normally distributed?
All models are wrong, some are useful.
agentofoblivion··on Andrew Ng: What Artificial Intelligence Can and Can’t Do Right Now
Refreshing. The hype around AI/machine learning in places like here and TechCrunch is exhausting. It doesn't help when people like Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk speculate about nightmare scenarios that seem to have both feet firmly in the distant future. We're so, so far away from anything resembling so-called "general intelligence". It's totally nuts to compare clever engineering scenarios like Google's Go project to general intelligence. It just isn't.

My theory is that paid per click advertising/clickbait is making it increasingly difficult to say anything that gets attention on the internet, so people increasingly use hyperbole. "Internet journalists" will trump things up to make it sound more exciting, feeding the hype machine. Those that don't succumb to the practice are just not heard. There are, of course, exceptions. But a well-reasoned, calmly stated argument from a nobody is never going to go viral in the way that an outlandish story from that same nobody could. i.e. Seth Godin doesn't have reach just because he's interesting, it's also because he's been working at it for over a decade, but any idiot can make up some fake story that goes viral and impacts the public consciousness.

agentofoblivion··on Sweden proposes ban on ride-sharing services that make profits
The key word is "profits". Uber has certainly never made those.
agentofoblivion··on Bayesian linear regression step by step
Nice! I made something similar in case someone likes your work and would benefit from another example. https://zjost.github.io/bayesian-linear-regression/
agentofoblivion··on How Should We Use Entropy in Economics? (1991) [pdf]
Although entropy originated in the context of statistical mechanics, Shannon/Jaynes showed it's a much more general and powerful concept. E.g. Information theory. Entropy is simply the average information in a probability distribution. Jaynes papers are super interesting! He derives famous stat mech results while making no ergodic assumptions and shows they're merely a consequence of statistical inference.

I suspect the concept is already present in economics. It's certainly under the hood of many statistical modeling techniques. For instance, some tree learning algorithms use entropy reduction measures to decide how to split the data for the tree. You can even derive the normal distribution by merely maximizing the entropy under the constraint of known variance.

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