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aidanf

554 karma · joined December 4, 2007

https://www.aidanf.net
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aidanf··on Day Traders 2.0: Wired, Angry and Loving It
"He starts off poorly, losing about $500. But a timely bet on a company called Rackspace Hosting (“I don’t know what they do,” he says), as well as quick investments in Applied Materials, Eagle Bulk Shipping and a few others, have turned things around."

"Asked about the Today Trader method of buying and selling, both men seem momentarily stumped, as if they never saw the question coming. Then they talk about the search for “set-ups,” which seems to translate roughly as “golden opportunities,” but they struggle to put a finger on what set-ups are, or how to spot them."

There's not a lot of detail about their trading strategies, but it sounds like they're just pushing buttons.

aidanf··on Poll: What are you investing time to learn?
Sounds interesting, are you by any chance blogging about it?
aidanf··on Evernote CEO Shares The Numbers that Makes Freemium Work
I find Evernote's free model oddly generous and I suspect their conversion rates could be much higher with some tweaking.

I use it every day and I don't come close to reaching my monthly limits. It's actually become one of my most used apps in recent months and I'd happily pay a monthly subscription for it - but the free plan is so generous I've never needed to.

aidanf··on Isildur1 and the week that changed online poker
For SNGs you should get SNGwizard to review your push/shove decisions at the end of each session and Holdem Manager to track your results, record your hands, and track your opponents statistics.
aidanf··on Isildur1 and the week that changed online poker
More likely he just took a break to calm himself and get his mind right.

Poker is intensely psychologically draining and the biggest enemy of winning poker players is tilt. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilt_%28poker%29

Most good players will constantly asses their play for signs of tilt and when they spot it, stop and take steps to address it before continuing.

aidanf··on Isildur1 and the week that changed online poker
Using statistical tracking software is pretty standard for any serious player. It can help a lot playing full tables against 6 to 9 players as stats are used to get an idea of how opponents play, what their ranges are etc.

However I think, these programs are less useful for HU play. When you have only a single opponent and you are concentrating fully on their play your own powers of observation will pick up reads more quickly and consistently than the than the stat programs.

aidanf··on Isildur1 and the week that changed online poker
Yes, the alberta HU bot plays limit. No limit is a vastly more complex game and the state-of-the-art in HU poker bots couldn't beat a competent low-stakes player.
aidanf··on What I Learned About Entrepreneurship From Watching the World Series of Poker
"In the World Series of Poker, no professional has won the Main Event in seven years."

This just isn't true. Last years winner, Peter Eastgate, was a professional poker player. In fact at last years final table there was 6 professional poker players, an accountant, a student and a trucking company manager.

Just because they're not one of the big-name TV-pros that get promoted by ESPN as big names doesn't mean that they're not professional. In fact many of the big-name pros are not actually very good in comparison to the online pros.

aidanf··on Introducing Atlas: A Visual Development Tool for Creating Web Apps
From the questions part of the video it appears that all the code that it generates is javascript and html.
aidanf··on Introducing Atlas: A Visual Development Tool for Creating Web Apps
I assumed from watching the video that the code it generates is objective-j or cappuccino code, and that it would run in the browser. Is this correct?
aidanf··on Zed Shaw on SF vs NYC
echo $zeds_blog >> $hacker_news
aidanf··on Can you trust TechCrunch enough to share their stories?
"Also when did TC move from covering startups to being tabloid central? "

When advertising revenues started falling, I suspect.

aidanf··on Memoirs of a Poker Bot Developer
What was your bot's ROI and over how many games?
aidanf··on Laconica, the Twitter clone software, is one step closer to the version 1.0
"Laconica is built on PHP/MySQL open source software."

Given all the hullabaloo about twiter scaling, rewrites, etc, I thought it would be clear by now that a database driven website is not a good architecture for twitter-like messaging system.

aidanf··on How online gamblers unmasked cheaters
Here are some more links.

The 60 minutes segment:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4639016n

The Washington Post articles:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11...

A summary of the original Twoplustwo investigation into the UB scandal. This is much more detailed and accurate than the reports linked above:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/ub-sc...

aidanf··on Lessons learned from a failed poker software business
I found StoxEv to be quite powerful but also quite complex. It took me a while to figure out how to use it. But once I grokked it, it's a powerful program that can facilitate very detailed analysis of a hand.

Having said that, I don't actually use it that much - for most situations I find PokerStove is good enough.

aidanf··on Lessons learned from a failed poker software business
Interesting article. I remember reading your announcement on 2p2 at the time. I went to your website and scanned the 2p2 thread.

The main reason I didn't buy it was that from what I read it seemed like anything I could do with your program I could already do with PokerStove or StoxEV. And they're both free.

If you want me to pay for poker software (and I've paid for lots of poker-related software) you have to convince me that it will give me an edge or allow me to do something that I can't already do with existing free software.

aidanf··on Tell HN: If you haven't got your YC email, check your Spam folder
"But pg did invent the most powerful recent spam fighting technique. "

While it may be the case that PGs essay was many peoples first exposure to baysian spam filters, he didn't invent the technique.

The first time I heard of it was in a paper published in 1998 at Microsoft research. This predates 'A plan for spam' by 4 years. http://research.microsoft.com/~horvitz/junkfilter.htm

aidanf··on How Dropbox ended my search for seamless sync on Linux
"seamless sync on Linux"

I wonder if he's tried unison. I've used it for years to keep several mac and linux boxes in sync. It works beautifully and it's open-source.

http://www.cis.upenn.edu/~bcpierce/unison/

aidanf··on Dropbox finally launches to the public (YC summer 07)
You should add a link to your main site on your blog. I arrived on the blog from the HN link having no idea what Dropbox is or what it does. I had to manually edit the url to get to the main page to find out what it does. Lots of users would be too lazy to do that.
aidanf··on Are Human Experts Less Prone to Catastrophic Errors than Machine-Learned Models?
Failure would rarely be "catastrophic" in the context of web search as described in the article. If the ML model makes an incorrect prediction on new data you have a bad search result. No big deal - just feed the new data back into the model and learn again.

If the data set is large enough then the ML model may find patterns that escape a human expert. When it comes to finding patterns in very large datasets machines scale much better than humans. Given a large enough dataset a ML approach should be less susceptible to the Black Swan phenomena than human experts.

On the other hand, if failure of the system really could be considered catastrophic then there could always be a human involved. In these cases output from ML models could be one of the inputs that the experts considers before coming to a final decision. E.g. you wouldn't want a ML model doing medical diagnosis by itself but it could be very useful for identifying patients that should be double-checked, scanning diagnosis for errors etc.

aidanf··on How not to get on covered on TechCrunch
I don't think that this site is going to "increase circulation for the source".

If you look at it, it is far from obvious that the content is being aggregated from other sources. Looking at the front page one might easily assume that this is all the sites own content.

There are no mentions of sources or links to sources on the frontpage. When you click on a link, you are not brought to the source, but instead to another page on the site which republishes the content from the source in full. Again it looks like this is the sites own content.

If you scroll down below the fold you eventually find a link to source but on the articles I checked this just links the the source sites main page and not to the individual article at the source site.

aidanf··on How not to get on covered on TechCrunch
"but with full content on the site"

I think that republishing someone else's RSS feed in full on your site is at best bad etiquette, at worst it's just plain stealing. I left a comment about it on the drupal page you linked to.

aidanf··on Ask YC: Django vs Ruby on Rails
Version numbers don't measure age. Django and Rails are roughly the same age, having had their first public releases around the same time.
aidanf··on How I built a poker-bot
Nope. NL is a much more complex game than limit. This is covered fairly well in the U-of-A literature. Also some of the two plus two NL books describe why NL is more complex.

Just because there is a simple strategy (shortstacking push/fold) that can be applied successfully against weak players, that doesn't mean that NL is a simpler game.

When you are trying to model the game there is a lot more to consider in NL. In Limit at each point in a hand and at each future point in a hand there are only limited actions that your opponent can take - raise, call, check, fold. In NL they can do any of these actions but also for any amount - push, raise pot, raise 1/2 pot etc. So the problem space for NL is much larger than for Limit. Bluffing is a much bigger part of NL and bluffing is hard to model.

Playing profitable limit poker is a fairly mechanical, mathematical process. You can't force people out of a hand with a big bet. It basically boils down to betting when you're probably ahead, folding when you're probably behind and drawing when the pot odds are favorable.

The U of A bots can play limit reasonably successfully against decent players. A decent player can easily beat their bots at NL.

Building a bot that can profit at the microstakes tables might be easier for NL than limit because you can employ a push/fold short stacking strategy like you describe. But building a bot that can survive against better players would be much harder for NL than Limit.

aidanf··on "I loved that I couldn't take the Auctomatics to a bar for a company meeting."
I think Auctomatic uses Seaside (http://www.seaside.st).
aidanf··on Merb | A different Ruby framework
Apparently hulu.com is built on merb.
aidanf··on Matt Maroon: Why I Quit Playing Poker For A Living
Limit is definitely easier to solve in a standard ring game. Why would limit be more difficult to solve than no-limit heads up?
aidanf··on Matt Maroon: Why I Quit Playing Poker For A Living
It's widely accepted in AI circles that Poker is a much more difficult to solve than chess. The main reason is that chess is a game of perfect information whereas Poker is a game of imperfect or partial information. It's much more difficult to find an optimal (or even a consistently successful) strategy in Poker.
aidanf··on Matt Maroon: Why I Quit Playing Poker For A Living
There is quite a bit of research being done about poker in the last few years. In fact poker related research has got best paper awards at a couple of the major AI conferences in recent years.

Check out http://poker.cs.ualberta.ca/. They're probably the leaders in this field.

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