413 karma · joined December 2, 2010
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Wow - so prescient
lep·to·sphere
the space beyond the earth's crust which is about 2.8 billion miles (4.8 km) across and includes the oceans and Mars, Uranus, Neptune, and Jupiter and beyond
"the space between the earth's crust and the leptosphere"
[1] https://www.amazon.com/Einsteins-Unfinished-Revolution-Searc...
This is a version of the "time diversification fallacy" in finance.
The debate over time diversification has been longrunning and remains unresolved. However, there is little empirical evidence to support the claim that time moderates the risks inherent in risky assets. In actuality, a longer investment horizon increases the magnitude of potential outcomes, both negative and positive. That being said, other factors may warrant the consideration of an investment time horizon in the asset-allocation process. [1]
Also, the article suggests "doing what everyone else is doing pretty much ensures that you’re going to be average." Math check. In the case of the stock market, the "average" return of the S&P 500 index outperforms 95% of active managers' returns. Turns out ensembling informed opinions is a pretty powerful tool. Who would have thought?
[1] conclusion of https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/icrtd.pdf?2210045172
In particular:
"SUMMERS: Not enough people are innovating enough in higher education. The place to start is, General Electric looks nothing like it looked in 1975. Harvard, Yale, Princeton, or Stanford look a lot like they looked in 1975. They’re about the same size to within a factor of two, they’re about the same number of buildings, they operate on about the same calendar, they have many of the same people or some number of the same people in significant positions. The main thing to say is that, for something that’s all about ideas and for something that’s all about young people, the pace of innovation in higher education is stunningly slow. We’re still on a system where the break is in the summer. The reason we’re on that system is that when everybody went to pick the plants, that was the natural way to organize school, and it’s still going that way. The potential action in higher education is probably heavily through distance learning and artificial intelligence in learning technologies of various kinds because, if you think about it, the unique capacity that online education has is that, on the one hand, they’re huge economies of scale. Once the lecture’s filmed, 100,000 people can watch it at the same cost as 100 people watching it."
Not a favorable trend for the subjects of this article.
This paper argues that in reality, the relationship is exactly the reverse: most money (=debt) creation starts as loans between private commercial banks. Loans become deposits in other bank accounts. If a bank finds itself short on a reserve requirement, it can just borrow reserves from other banks to meet its reserves, or from the central bank.
In sum, at least in the United States and England, most money creation stems from loans within the private sector, as opposed to what the movie and textbooks typically suggest.
This is explained in the paper:
" For the [money multiplier] theory to hold, the amount of reserves must be a binding constraint on lending, and the central bank must directly determine the amount of reserves. While the money multiplier theory can be a useful way of introducing money and banking in economic textbooks, it is not an accurate description of how money is created in reality. Rather than controlling the quantity of reserves, central banks today typically implement monetary policy by setting the price of reserves — that is, interest rates. In reality, neither are reserves a binding constraint on lending, nor does the central bank fix the amount of reserves that are available. As with the relationship between deposits and loans, the relationship between reserves and loans typically operates in the reverse way to that described in some economics textbooks. Banks first decide how much to lend depending on the profitable lending opportunities available to them — which will, crucially, depend on the interest rate set by the Bank of England. It is these lending decisions that determine how many bank deposits are created by the banking system. The amount of bank deposits in turn influences how much central bank money banks want to hold in reserve (to meet withdrawals by the public, make payments to other banks, or meet regulatory liquidity requirements), which is then, in normal times, supplied on demand by the Bank of England. The rest of this article discusses these practices in more detail."
Also, anyone know why the spacecraft has to do a flyby, as opposed to, say, going into orbit around Pluto? Is it because the fuel involved in slowing down the spacecraft would be forbiddingly heavy?
... and then quotes like this: "Algorithmic hordes of parasitic vampire squids and zombie capitalists compulsively gorge on blood and brains, their exhausted victims lie all around, twitching to the non-periodic outbursts of transient code – the singularity turns out to be just another accelerating extension of exploitation" ... which is so over the top that it works against whatever point the article is trying to make...
... which is completely obscured by pseudo-scientific technobabble. A big WTF here.
[1] http://www.amazon.com/Concise-Guide-Macroeconomics-Managers-...