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amalter

278 karma · joined June 5, 2010

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amalter··on California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
I live around 10 blocks from Brooklyn Hospital Center and I assure you the entire hospital, including atriums, waiting rooms, hallways and even meeting rooms are packed with patient beds.

If your hospital is empty, it’s because of the actions you took. Stop doing those actions, and your neighborhood will soon look like mine soon.

This thing of going to come in so many waves because humans seem to be incapable of not just learning from the past, but also the present.

amalter··on Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ Slams Virus Lockdown
Additionally, COVID-19 is a new disease and we have no data about the long term effects.

This is true anecdotal, but I’m following a cohort of 5 MD friends who all experienced “walking COVID” (aka reached the loss of smell symptom, but required no hospitalization).

This cohort is 35-45 and all previously highly athletic.

They are between +20 and +45 days from being “symptom free”. Not one of them can perform cardiac challenged activities.

I’ve heard things like “I get winded carrying groceries up the stairs” to “I cannot perform even a single push-up”.

So before we take this big risk of letting the virus “burn” through the population, shouldn’t we understand just a bit more?

Sure, maybe we’ll get lucky and the IFR will just be 2-10x flu.

But there are worrying signs of permanent heart, lung and kidney damage.

These costs will also stay with us long term.

Mortality isn’t the concern when dealing with an unknown virus.

amalter··on Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for Covid-19
Just be aware this is a cultural judgement. In the U.K., many shelters will not adopt out cats to people planning on keeping them inside, as it is deemed cruel.

I live in the US with 2 indoor cats, and don’t let them out for the reasons you mention.

However, I understand the other side of the debate also. We do a lot of work to ensure our cats get enough stimulus.

amalter··on From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages
Where is the source on Chinese ports being closed? I work in the international trade sector and since March 9th we’ve had record breaking activity on our system.

Even looking at AIS you can see 1000+ dockings over the next 3 days at Shenzhen - https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/data/?asset_type=arrivals_d...

Also air freight volume is off the charts! We’re starting to see airlines use their 777’s with cargo in the belly and boxes on the seats.

I can’t speak to the food security situation at all. However, from my vantage point, supply lanes are screamingly full of something.

How that plays out for individual products ... shrug ...

amalter··on The Virus Can Be Stopped, but Only with Harsh Steps, Experts Say
I’ve watched every one of Cuomo’s press conferences. He message is always clear - that we are trying to not overwhelm the health system.

He doesn’t say “flatten the curve” because he believes words matter and tries to communicate to avoid panic (Hence his refusal to call “Stay Indoors” as “Shelter in Place”)

But the medical side of the state government - along with their action - has been consistently flatten the curve.

No one but the highly delusional believes we can roll back community spread.

amalter··on Total Cost of Her Covid-19 Treatment: $34,927.43
I believe that your position was strong during the cold war. From the end of WWII until the dissolution of the Soviet Union, American troops and bombs were a significant deterrent to Soviet imperialism in Europe.

However, the world has significantly changed since December 1991. I agree with the grandparent that today the primary usage of the large US bases in Germany are for staging people and material to the middle east. I also think that it's a reasonable opinion that these wars (or their scale and length) were unnecessary. Is that opinion evidence of "anti-american bias"? I believe that is an unreasonable conclusion.

So - from the 50's to the 90's did the US "subsidize" European economies to some amount by providing common defense from the USSR? Sure. It also served US interests as the policy was to "fight over there" instead of in the US.

Since then, the US has spent upwards of $3T on the GWOT, while declining in every health statistic year over year.

If we're tossing around charges of "anti-american'ism" - I counter than anyone who wants to continue on with an unchanged healthcare system is "anti-american" - as in literally in favor of a system that causes more children to die at birth, for people to live shorter, less predictable and more brutal lives.

amalter··on Substantial undocumented infection facilitates rapid dissemination of SARS-CoV2
I'm not sure what country you're located in, but at least in the US, there is the "Expanded Access" program - otherwise known as compassionate use. (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded...)

It was widely used during the HIV epidemic to provide pre-trial access to medications and my hypothesis is that the program will be used even more extensively for sars-cov-2.

If your country does not have a law like this, now is the time to push your representatives.

Note - this is different from allowing OTC access to chloroquine willy nilly. If that is the suggestion, I am in agreement with the government that physician mediated access is the wisest course. While we know the safety profile of the medication, the doesn't make is "safe".

amalter··on NBA suspends season over the coronavirus after player tests positive
It’s more the other direction. What evidence do we have that this will be sorted by August?

There has been no evidence that Cov-2 is anywhere as heat sensitive as influenza. This isn’t “the flu”. It doesn’t have to conform to flu patterns.

Right now the only countries getting this under control are ones that have started social distancing early and left many measures in place.

amalter··on Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says
I browsed Reddit for 30 minutes a day and concluded the same thing. Don't congratulate yourself too much, it was blindingly obvious.

For all the things that Reddit gets wrong, early-January r/cornavirus was pretty much spot on the money.

amalter··on Antirez (Redis creator): don’t believe this is just a flu
And if private healthcare can’t work during a crisis, then what use is it?

A large public system cannot be conjured out of thin air to met each crisis.

We will see the large well funded social medical systems, with their “inefficient” over capacity, over-perform the operating on thin margins private systems.

I’m terrified here in the US.

(FWIW - give me 90% socialized medicine with room on the margins for private clinics, like the vast majority of the 1st world)

amalter··on Apple's long processor journey
This has been exactly proven out by Amazon - https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2019/12/announcin...

If Amazon can make a server class ARM chip that is competitive or better with their custom designed Xeons, I take it as a truism Apple could do the same for mobile.

amalter··on Show HN: WindTerm 0.8 – A whole new generation of terminal emulator
Wow HN is especially negative today.

Count me as interested in a terminal that supports “infinite” scrollback, while keeping memory usage deterministic. Apply color styling heuristically based on content is interesting. I’m assuming this only kicks in if color is not applied inside the term? Being able to cat an xml/json/source file and get decent styling sounds quite cool. Also hard.

You might want to setup a non-github landing page. While you certainly can use github for anything (within their tos), user expectations are that open source tools are hosted there.

Spin up a quick landing site (even just use something like squarespace) and capture some animated gifs showing your distinctive features in action.

I agree that you’ll have a hard time selling this as a product - there are too many “pretty damn good” versions of terminals to get folks to pay.

Have you thought of offering an embeddable component? I can imagine a number of great uses for a lightweight, native, customizable text control with the features described. I think we’re reaching peek Electron, and fully baked native text control/editor would be a differentiator.

Perhaps offer the terminal for free and commercialize the component?

Either way, HN is a tough crowd, especially with commercial products, so don’t take it to personally.

Take the constructive part of the criticism and pursue your passion.

amalter··on Graal Autovectorization
The niche JDK vendors are an order of magnitude off what Oracle needs to fund JDK development. I suppose the closest example is Azul, which is using the same "pay for performance" model of Graal EE.

I have absolutely nothing against some kind of commercial model for funding the JDK. My comments were that in my opinion, the model is unfortunately doomed:

- Lack of goodwill for Oracle - Enterprises who are not yet Oracle customers really really want to stay away from entering into a commercial agreement. True or not, the perception is that a license agreement with Oracle comes with aggressive and intrusive compliance audits.

- Worse is better syndrome - Indeed Oracle is the primary developer on the JDK, but the others entering this space are not hobbyists working on the side. Plenty of serious vendors with serious compiler chops have skin in keeping "free JRE" as the "fast enough" JRE. Redhat natch IBM, Google, Azul, Amazon, apparently Twitter (see pull request). Graal EE is supposedly 30-40% faster on some numeric workloads. But what if these players get that down to 20% or 10% .. or suddenly there might be workloads where CE is faster. Much harder to pitch that license agreement without compelling and unambiguous benefit.

I don't have a "problem" with Oracle, I'm just commenting on where I think the industry is right now. Maybe Oracle will prove me wrong - Microsoft sure did.

amalter··on Graal Autovectorization
I think Graal and Graal EE on Oracle Cloud is one of the smartest product moves out of Oracle in .... idk ... forever?

However, it seems like a knifes edge to walk on. If Graal CE gets uptake, are there enough compiler folks at Redhat, Azul, Google, et. al. to shrink (or overtake) the Graal EE performance edge.

Graal CE must be “good enough” to get people hooked that they then want to hold their nose enough to engage with Oracle (through Cloud or license).

Maybe the management and visualization advantages are enough? I don’t think so though.

I also don’t think it will pay off (despite the incredible technical achievement that Graal is).

I was just talking with an ex-Oracle SMB sales rep, and they left because they would persuade businesses off SQL Server on technical merits, only to see their clients steamrolled by the Compliance Department a year later.

Larry is, 75 years old or so? I think recent Microsoft history can show goodwill can be created quickly, but it must be done from the top down.

amalter··on Update from Chef
Indeed Obama was "deporter in chief" - all presidents are.

However, the rule of law was still enforced. Obama concentrated on immigrants with a criminal record and those "picked up" at the border. Family separation was rare, and there was an advocacy and appeal process. USCIS judges were not silenced and neutered. It was far from a perfect system, but there was an attempt to make it compassionate.

This is why the numbers don't tell the whole story. G.W returned more than Obama, Clinton more than G.W., H.W. more than Clinton.

This is not a Obama vs Trump issue - this is a "Every US President in modern history" vs Trump issue. It is possible to enforce immigration laws compassionately. It is not hypocrisy to call this out.

amalter··on Oracle’s Larry Ellison Calls Uber and WeWork ‘Almost Worthless’
Only anecdotal, but Uber Pool is by far the most popular product among my cohort in Brooklyn and Manhattan.

Usually you ride with at least one other person, and it’s not unusual to have 3-4 passengers if it’s a third row suv.

I enjoy shitting on Uber also, but there is a grain of genuine innovation in the mountain of crap.

amalter··on Fridge Condenser Fans – Old and New [video]
Another sample point and a different concern...

We just bought a new refrigerator this weekend, replacing the $3500 2011 Bosch that came with the apartment.

The Bosch burned out the compressor’s ECU - a $350 part that with labor would have been an $800 repair.

We comparison shopped all the appliance stores in NYC and ended up with a $2k Samsung side by side (not my favorite brand, but it fit in our tight galley kitchen)

PC Richard had only a single model with a touchscreen on the floor (Samsung French door). Best Buy and Home Depot had maybe one more from LG.

So on one hand, the concern that every refrigerator will have a useless touchscreen seems unfounded.

But... I was reading through the manual and was surprised to find instructions for connecting the appliance to my wifi. (MAC address available two hex digits at a time flashed through the temperature gauges)

Ostensibly this is to provide a channel for electric demand response (they even documented the api). It also connects up with Samsung’s SmartHome ecosystem (why??)

I have no doubt there is a full Android stack hidden what appeared to be a normal “dumb appliance”.

These hidden smart appliances are going to be great attack surfaces. I’m sure soon enough they’ll automate the wifi connection by making a back channel the nearest lightbulb or something.

Of course who’s following CVEs on their mesh connected toaster?

amalter··on ‘My mum didn’t vaccinate me – this is what happened next’
The symptoms are caused by the virus reproducing. At least take cough suppressant.

The rest just makes you feel a little less awful. All the studies show the current OTC remedies don’t shorten illness duration (which conversely means they don’t lengthen it either).

The “evolutionary response” hypothesis is a lesser form of “smart people going with their gut instead of science” - which is partly how we’ve gotten into this mess in the first place.

Smart people seem to get important things wrong quite a lot.

amalter··on Boeing Resisted Pilots’ Calls for Aggressive Steps on 737 Max
Didn’t we just have an article yesterday on how difficult it is to recover from this event in a simulator, in which the pilots knew exactly what was wrong and what was going to happen.

Blaming the Ethiopian pilots (One of the safest airlines in the world btw) for getting over speed during the workload induced by runaway trim is disrespectful.

By now, near every professional pilot agrees that these are near unrecoverable events unless you assess and cut the trim in first 15 seconds or so.

Blaming Lion Air in the first hours after the crash, with their somewhat sketchy history, was understandable.

Everything after that is uninformed or racist.

amalter··on The Abandoned Facebook Tech That Now Helps Power Apple
Not sure why this was downvoted. This was the story out of Basho last I heard. (Well, lot's of hints like "Some fruit company you may have heard of uses it like this").

Perhaps this is now out of date?

amalter··on Servo passes Acid2
Said by plenty of folks - for example, Joel Spolsky http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000069.html
amalter··on Android saves wifi passwords in plaintext to the cloud
>> Google has harvested the location, name and signal strength of many millions of wireless networks across the world > Don't forget that that dataset of wireless locations is updated continuously through crowdsourcing.

Along with Apple, Skyhook, Nokia and a number of other location providers.

amalter··on Android saves wifi passwords in plaintext to the cloud
>fact that Google was previously caught/accused of war-driving every wifi net they could see with their streetview cars

I am a bit amused when folks trot this out and forget to mention that Google itself discovered this, voluntarily came forward, owned up to the mistake, provided the information to the prosecutors and paid the fines related.

You would think if they were so determined to continue with this nefarious activity they might have been a bit more mum about it.

amalter··on Google paid AdBlock Plus to get its ads whitelisted
The first step in getting a click is gettin an impression.

On the other extreme, I've actually found myself right clicking into an organic search because I feel bad for charging UPS for my laziness.

(Yes I do realize how ridiculous this is on so many levels. However, do not assume that well plassed text ads do not get click thrus)

amalter··on RubyFlux: a Ruby to Java compiler
This could be useful for someone wanting to whip up some Android code in Ruby, but not wanting to import the full JRuby or Ruby NDK overhead.

I bet it's mostly for fun. He essentially extracted his JRuby JIT into a conventional compiler.

In other words, a neat hack.

amalter··on The End of x86? An Update
My opinion (and I suspect the authors) is that the market for chips where batteries or form factor are not a concern will no longer be large enough to support a company of the size of Intel. RIM makes the finest high security physical keyboard phones anywhere. That is now a market sized for a company 1/10th their current size.
amalter··on Three fundamental tricks for developers writing distributed systems
This was one of the main reasons explained to me on why db based queues are a code smell.

The other was that insert/select pattern of a queue hammers a db's index and data page fragmentation algorithms. Anyone know if this is still the case or am I repeating a wives-tale?

amalter··on Three fundamental tricks for developers writing distributed systems
It seems to me that XA transactions one of those patterns that need to be rediscovered every generation. I see folks start with 0mq or Redis and hit edge cases where messages get lost.

I'd love to see a somewhat simple distributed transaction standard for http api's emerge.

There has to be a middle ground between the fiddly bits of soap's ws-reliable or full on JMS broker and ad-hoc Redis queues.

amalter··on A tour of the world in d3.js
Running fine on my 5 year old laptop.. Taking about 10-30% cpu.

The implementation is short enough to paste in this comment. I find d3.js almost magical. About the closest actionscript toolset would be prefuse flare. D3 was designed as a direct descendant and improvement to that generation of toolkits.

amalter··on Redline Smalltalk V1.0
See also Scala's compiler, which detects and re-writes tail calls as stackless iterations (http://oldfashionedsoftware.com/2008/09/27/tail-recursion-ba...)
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