andriy_koval

mechanical buying in your link is 17.5B for initial 555M shares. 9nb is some creative napkin math.

Now, since than, spacex float increased from 555M shares to 4.3B.

> I signed up for when I bought lots and lots of VTI. And that I can change to a different set of investments pretty much instantly for 9 hours a day

I don't think that's what avg 401k holder is doing

> (FYI, CRSP doesn't exist anymore)

it absolutely exists, but was renamed

> CRSP adjusted their methodology prior to SpaceX IPO being announced.

important part is when SpaceX ipo plans were decided, not announced to clueless public

higher chance to recieve junk rating and reduced initial evaluation

I won't be surprised if audit finds another few 100B of hidden debt

so you saying you know exact number affected by index drama, and it is small? What is that?

this article says crsp changed policy too: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds...

I think all mentioned numbers: 2.5% of Nasdaq, 0.8% (as per market cap from https://indexes.morningstar.com/indexes/details/morningstar-...) of crsp, 600B usd are large enough to just give them to trillioners.

the largest 2.3T is https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI/ which tracks CSRP which fasttracked SPaceX

Per https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-SPCX/ SpaceX curreng float is 4.29B shares or about 600B USD, not that small grab from pension funds.

Russel indexes are used by very large funds, e.g. vanguard usually track russel

Many funds use Russel indexes, which included SpaceX already

that's if few currently funded by someone open labs will continue being funded without receiving huge chunk of revenue from their models use.

there is increase in productivity of both types of employees: good actors who want to deliver on quality of work, and bad actors, who now 20x weaponized in generating all kind of slop. Catching second type is now very nontrivial problem.

> main index has a good signal anymore

maybe (this could be discussed), but the problem there is nothing better..

> then we could each define our own 'index' to get the slice of perspective we find useful.

its too much work for 98% AI consumers. In reality, AA is best what we have as aggregated score..

> The ground-truth metrics would be forward ROA and ROIC.

that's not ground truth in environment when landscape (AI) dramatically changes every quarter, and investments are uncertain bets with huge win potential.

Your ground truth metrics are: 1. How healthy core business: operating income. 2. How aggressively company reinvest: net - operating income.

Its just interesting how wall street views ant and google as the same caliber companies, even google has way more stronger baseline and ant is way more under the water.

> but larger more staid companies will take a lot longer.

I still believe large spenders already advertise on multiple channels and balance budgets based on performance.

google still highly profitable, so operation income indicates how healthy is business, and eps/net income indicates how agressively they reinvesting.

meta earns lots of money too

Big spenders already do not bid on google directly, but balance budgets automatically between multiple platforms and channels base on performance

Ads is highly fragmented market, google has yt, display, mobile ads, there are tons of other platforms (meta, linkedin) where you can advertise.

That first price auction complain is bs, advertisers will just stop bidding $5 for top click and start bidding $1.1 in his example to hit their goals.

> what channel actually provides most of these ad buys that would satisfy their ad dollars?

advertisers decide which channel justifies.

They still bring 250B ads dollars to google search, meaning it provides more than 250B value to them,

Ok, this one happened because they invested into AI hardware build out. Actual operating income grew 30%+ q/q.

> that search/ad revenue actually grew 12%

it grew compared to q3 2025, but it is flat (0% grows) compared to q2 2026.

> Their earnings missed by almost 30%

which exactly earning number missed by 30%?..

They can't juice, because advertisers are now good in calculating conversion rate, roas, cpa, etc, so they would shift budgets to other channels like overnight if see Google underperforming.

we need to make semi-educated decisions to pick model somehow, and AA is the best what is available

We live in state where it is very hard to do anything without breaking law, so some common sense judgement is required before coming to morality verdict.