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avsteele

1,690 karma · joined October 5, 2017

adam@avsteele.com

adam@zerok.com

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avsteele··on Microsoft was blindsided by OpenAI's ouster of CEO Sam Altman
Or maybe he just believes the things he testified to. Would be parsimonious.
avsteele··on Tell HN: Submit comments to IRS re tax treatment of software dev expenses
Practically speaking its because there is no asset, unlike other CapEx.

The law specifically does not permit this. You just can't deduct the expenditure except as over 60 months (and only 6 months in the first year)

avsteele··on Tell HN: Submit comments to IRS re tax treatment of software dev expenses
US treatment under the old rule was constant from the 1950's.

I don't know about other countries.

I haven't found anything credible on 'why' this was added, but...I'd hazard a cynical guess that it was put in as a way to reduce the apparent cost of the TCJA. You look for ways of raising revenue in your bill so you can claim it costs less. You do this do this even if you expect that (unpopular) change will be undone later.

A second possibility is that it was added to reduce the benefits of the R&D tax credit, which in fairness a lot of companies probably abuse.

avsteele··on Tell HN: Submit comments to IRS re tax treatment of software dev expenses
(1) Capitalization is for tangible assets with a useful life and some liquid value. You can't meaningfully monetize the R&E of every engineer.

(2) If you analysis held at all you could pull forward the deprecation if you abandon the research, which might be viewed like disposing of the asset. You cannot do this under this law.

(3) This increases the total cost of R&E work substantially. It is a disincentive to innovation.

See also my other post above.

avsteele··on Tell HN: Submit comments to IRS re tax treatment of software dev expenses
This is about way more than software.

Bear in mind that the way it is written all research and experimentation costs would be amortized. So if you have a chemist, biologist, physicist or even an engineer it plausibly is the case that if you are paying them to develop a new product that carries technical risk then their *salary* needs to be capitalized!

Good luck coming up with the cash to pay a tax bill on 90% of their annual salary. You can't even pull forward the depreciation if you abandon the research! Sure, it mostly stabilizes after about 6 years if your R&E budget is flat, but even in this case there is a huge cost in that you only get to deduct their salary in the far future. It is huge disincentive to developing anything new.

This is a total nightmare and cost many business like mine an absurd amount of money this year. Everyone just filed for extension in April assuming this insanity would be reversed before the late filing deadline... NOPE!

(NB: it is NOT necessarily tied to R&D, or the R&D tax credit. The calculation of this is subject to different rules.)

I don't even know how large companies found the cash to pay this bill. How can a biotech or software company whose annual expenses I'd guess are largely salary have had the money to pay taxes on 90% of their salary budget?

avsteele··on Google Brain founder says big tech is lying about AI danger
This is just more lazy argumentation to avoid having to engage with the substance of the debate.

I keep finding the 'doomer' argument made logically and the counter arguments to be hand-waving ("there is obviously no risk!") or ad-hominim ("its a cult").

avsteele··on Scrollbars are becoming a problem
This isn't limited to being a problem for those with fine motor control issues.

The wheel has a linear/constant speed, which is a hindrance for very long pages. Also, wheel scroll can behave differently depending on where the mouse cursor is or has focus. The scroll bar has none of these problems.

avsteele··on Wegovy, other weight-loss drugs scrutinized over reports of suicidal thoughts
There is nothing in here actionable to anyone.

Reuters says they conducted an 'exhaustive review' which amounts to:

- In a government adverse event database there are 256 reports of suicidal thoughts or actions among people who took Wegovy

- these cover the period 2010-2023

- some of the reports may be duplicates

- No analysis or even discussion of base rates

- many paragraphs of irrelevancies.

avsteele··on U.S. National Debt Tops $33T for First Time
Not at present (intergovernmental is 22% as of Jan 2023)

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-de...

But even if you were right, it wouldn't matter.

Fed debt is effectively monetized or will be sold back to the public later. It doesn't change anything. At best you can make a hand waving claim about it meaning we can get away with a bit lower interest rates while monetizing.

The rest held by the gov is mostly social security. It represents an obligation to make payments to people outside the government (under current law). Not sure why anyone would think this doesn't matter.

We'll learn soon enough whether the US defaults, monetizes, or substantially reduces SS payments first. Suppose tax increases are theoretically possible, but they would need to be substantial to cover the deficits of 25% we run regularly now.

avsteele··on U.S. National Debt Tops $33T for First Time
Where are you getting these numbers?

Debt held by the US gov as a whole is only about a quarter of the total

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-owns-a-record-21...

The amount of interest it must pay is proportional to the debt, but can also rise quickly with interest rates a a lot of the debt is rolled over on fairly short timescales (<1 yr IIRC) Debt service is going to start crowding out other spending in short order.

If the US gov monetizes the debt it will mean it has to pay more interest on what remains and what is issued in the future.

So this matters a lot. The situation is untenable.

avsteele··on Ask HN: I’m an FCC Commissioner proposing regulation of IoT security updates

  Are you in favor of seat belt and airbag requirements? 
No. The presence of these features is easy to document, and the harms are limited to the person making the $/risk tradeoff.

  What about the bans on asbestos and lead paint?
This is more justifiable. The harm is very far removed from the manufacture (time, place) and it is hard to evaluate whether a given space has these features when e.g renting.
avsteele··on Ask HN: I’m an FCC Commissioner proposing regulation of IoT security updates
I think this is a bad idea which will lead to fewer and more expensive devices. I do not want the FCC regulating this.

It is much more reasonable to have the market impose some discipline on manufacturers and their level of support. Plenty of consumers would favor less costly, less-supported devices.

avsteele··on Show HN: 99% cheaper international business transfers – fixed fee, real rate
Good luck with your venture.

Not sure why no one mentions OFX when doing these comparisons. Their rates are good and I don't recall pay any fees on top of them. When I looked into this year ago seemed much cheaper than Wise.

avsteele··on Austin company unveils humanoid robot
There is no pricing or availability info in the article or the company's website. Pretty lame. Is this a real product or not? These days its hard to know if the video is even real or AI generated.
avsteele··on Let’s not encrypt (2019)
certbot copies the file to be served as part of the challenge. It can optionally can modify your nginx config to use the cert once its obtained. I don't see why it needs root to do this, but you'd at least need permissions for it to read/write to the appropriate nginx & server folders.
avsteele··on Sierra Creative Interpreter – Scripts
"Tell me about... voodoo"

This alone would be worth the price of admission. But Who plays GK?

avsteele··on Google claims to have proved its supremacy with new quantum computer
Grover's algorithm seems quite useful, though I'd guess it requires an enormous number of qubits (large unordered database) to be useful.
avsteele··on Fast machines, slow machines
This is everywhere. Quickbooks Online just changed significant portions of their UI such that there are noticeable delays when typing in many input fields. Its hideous and a big slowdown when trying to get work done.

I don't think many of these programs are used by the people who write them.

avsteele··on Show HN: Flux Copilot – Generative AI for hardware design
I am a neophyte, but sure you can email me. see my profile.
avsteele··on Show HN: Flux Copilot – Generative AI for hardware design
A few weeks ago I was going yo start learning how to use PCB design software.

Flux seemed really cool and I gave it a try but couldn't get going well enough to continue. Here are my impressions:

## Key features and my impressions (as of 4/29/23):

- Interaction

    - Browser based

        - Buggy in Firefox, don't try it (simulation failed to converge)

    - Versioning (ala git)

    - Collaboration 

        - Multiple people can work on a circuit at once

        - can also give a link to share a circuit with limited permissions

    - AI assistant

        - Appears to have no specific knowledge of Flux? When I asked it question about running the code it didn't know I was asking about Flux even.
- Schematics

    - Has a large library of parts?

    - UI is a little clunky for common task like rotating elements but it gets the job done
- Circuit Simulation

    - does not support plotting

    - can't find a way to parametrize a simulation

    - Can affect appearance of schematic or PCB model: e.g.: the LED In the schematic or 3D model will light up / be dark depending on the state determined by the simulation. (this doesn't help me get my work doe but it is cool/pretty)

    - Can press a button on the schematic and see its effects via the sim 
- API - Supports manipulation of the circuit via code (looks like #javascript)

    - I haven't used it much, and their \*example\* was non-functional (?!)
- PCB design

    - Linked directly to the schematic so if you change a part there it changes on the PCB

    - Has a very nice looking 3D mode/view of the circuit
I wound up using KiCad for design and www.circuitlab.com for simulation.
avsteele··on ESP32-C3 Wireless Adventure: A Comprehensive Guide to IoT [pdf]
This is interesting, thanks for posting.
avsteele··on Hotel Owners Start to Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives
Thanks for posting this but, his article doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If he could show the property owner was having equal similar difficulties in other cities his point would be stronger. As it is, It isn't even clear what he's saying.

Also, Hilton Union Square SF didn't seem 'run down' to me. I just had a conference there two weeks ago. The area around the hotel seems pretty quiet though...

WSJ article seems fine as these things go.

avsteele··on “But the SEC let us go public” and other flawed arguments in Coinbase's defense
All other arguments aside: the bottom line is that everyone who invested in crypto did it with the knowledge that Coinbase wasn't a securities broker.

The SEC just can't imagine a world where customers are fine without their 'protection'. We don't want your help, we don't need your help. GO away.

avsteele··on GitHub Copilot and the Methods of Rationality (2022)
My experience has been similar. I recently wanted it to write code to parse and process a rather strange data file into a list & dict. Here is what I found:

I went through a process of re-writing my prompt several times to get correct output. In fairness, I think getting the correct result meant being more precise with the prompting language.

Overall, it was a bit spooky seeing it respond to my varying prompts; then noticing it's errors; then re-prompting to fix its misconceptions. In the end, though I could have written it myself faster, so I am not sure it is saving me time.

I am surprised when I see people saying its saving them massive amounts of time. Are there any good examples out there of it producing copious amounts of code, correctly, from prompting such that I can easily believe using CoPilot is a time-saver?

avsteele··on California Assembly votes to pass the Journalism Preservation Act
I'd recommend reading the actual bill if you want to see how (apparently) nuts it is.

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml...

From my reading of the preamble:

1) A 'digital journalism provider' (DJP, e.g. a newspaper) submits a notice to the platform (e.g meta) each month

2) The platform must then remit to the provider some fraction of all its advertising revenue.

3) The platform is forbidden from 'retaliating' (???) again the DJP by (for example) not linking to it in the future

That third part cant possibly be constitutional.

avsteele··on I didn’t learn Unix by reading all the manpages (2022)
All the manpages are bad IMO. A set of examples with a textual description of what each is doing would be far more useful in 99% of cases than a list of flags.
avsteele··on Why I'm done with Mouser Electronics
I wish there was an electronics supply company as good as McMaster Carr. Those guys also have a huge inventory but are always fast and on the ball.

Is there anyone with a decent inventory on the east coast so I can get ground shipping faster?

avsteele··on The AT protocol is the most obtuse crock of shit
A critique written in such an unprofessional way should be ignored. It isn't worthy of discussion.
avsteele··on Patent for attention-based sequence transduction neural networks (2019)
I doubt it. They probably filed a provisional earlier.
avsteele··on Banking crises rooted in a system that rewards excessive risk-taking
This article misses the mark IMO. It really doesn't seem like the bank was taking on risks that a ton of banks aren't also exposed to just doing normal 'bank stuff'

The banks primarily invest in mortgages, and treasuries, and so a lesser extent business loans. That's about as 'safe' as it gets! If they wanted inflation protection they could invest in, what? Securities? Then they'd be an investment bank. Even if this was legal, then if market went down and there was a run and there would be an article about how the bank should have held bonds and treasuries. If they held cash they wouldn't be a 'bank' anymore and couldn't offer what few services they do.

Banks are exposed to interest rate risk. They borrow short and lend long. Anybody taking a look at their checking account today will see they can get higher yields by moving their money around from their traditional bank to new high yield accounts from e.g. Synchrony and many others.

Based on this I don't see this ending with First Republic.

Now, I am sympathetic to claims of mismanagement, but I don't see it at the bank level. I'm just a amateur here but if I had to point my finger at something that exacerbates these problems its the US government's continued support for long (15yr+) fixed-rate loans. These really appear to be US government creation.

Meanwhile our federal gov is running record peacetime deficits. If interest rates remain high (and its hard to see them coming down very quickly) its going to blow a gaping hole in the federal budget.

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