HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

bayesianbot

660 karma · joined June 20, 2019

submissionscomments
bayesianbot··on Show HN: I gamified a habit tracker to fight procrastination
Really nice! I've been thinking of habit gamification like this for a long time but never got too far as.. well, procrastination. Hopefully I can stick with using this instead.

As you don't have mobile apps yet I have one far out suggestion that is easy to implement and in my tests worked much better than I ever though it would. It's possible to create two kind of menus in Telegram chats[0]. For my start of a habit tracker my bot sent me possible actions (as in habits) to our chat, and I could just click what I'd done and that's it. Works on both on mobile and desktop and just takes a second. It's possible to keep a permanent menu below the typing area and attach an inline menu on a message, so I kept my habits in permanent menu and possible follow-up actions (leave a note, cancel the action, stop taking time) in the reply to a confirmation of selected action. I know it's strange suggestion but I've been thinking and implementing different ways to make use of that menu system as I was blown away how it worked and with just a few lines of code.

[0] https://hetzger.ohmycron.xyz/web/telegram_menu.png

bayesianbot··on $625M worth of ETH drained on Axie Infinity's Ronin Network
Which was 6 days after the original transfers. Unbelievable.
bayesianbot··on Send a text message about Ukraine to a random Russian mobile number
I think that's a great idea, I'll send some. Apparently the message invites to find information on telegram channels, so should it contain a link to a channel?
bayesianbot··on Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin
On the other hand we have a lot of data points of humans and nations using every available edge to expand their power throughout history. Also we have made social systems where narcissistic greed and lust for power seems to get pretty much rewarded with more money and power, and misinformation runs rampant. More powerful weapons systems will get developed until MAD might not be certainty for the aggressor, if bombs can be delivered stealthily in minutes. Or at least MAD might get tested with one warning shot, delivering a message of "what is your actual defense going to be, I don't really care about the world anyways"

I don't really see it as much as daily roll of a dice but more of a system that might guarantee to force us down that road some day within a few generations.

bayesianbot··on Twitter based map of Russian troop movements
It's surprisingly common take in these times. Climate change? Fearmongering. Covid? Who's going to be scared of the flu? And obviously Putin's danger is made up by media, at least until today.

I don't think the accuracy rate for these predictions will be too good but plenty of people seem to think otherwise.

bayesianbot··on Ask HN: New YouTube hover feature? Does anyone else find this annoying?
The subtitles on desktop do work for me (and I agree that's a great function). I think you'll have to mess around your settings somehow. I got A/B tested to this hover feature months ago and the subtitles have been working all that time.
bayesianbot··on Autistic people challenge preconceived ideas about rationality
That is exactly what I wish my parents did with me (my meltdowns usually started after few answers of "It's a tradition/rule") and what I do with my kid. I think for me growing up one of the most important person was my 5-6th grade teacher who instead of punishing me for doing something wrong actually took the time to understand me and tell me the logic behind why I shouldn't do it - so now instead of being punished for some specific silly reason I couldn't understand, I could get a better understanding of society and apply that logic to a wider spectrum of situations. And he understood that if he just explains me stuff like that there's no reason to punish me as it won't happen again anyways.
bayesianbot··on Autistic people challenge preconceived ideas about rationality
This might sound strange but I'm autistic and first time I really noticed something was "wrong" was when I started school, met new people and noticed that all the adults and children think in a really different way - in my mind they couldn't explain their actions or thoughts logically, and it made no sense to me why they were fine with it. Why were they happy to have a conversation where I found a gaping hole in their logic and.. just go on with their lives without exploring it further? I always had a meltdown if I was asked to do something that could not be logically explained to me, and questioned my parents and peers for day or weeks if I learned some things about the world that nobody could completely explain. It felt like I was accidentally born on wrong planet with different species with completely different thought processes that I couldn't understand.
bayesianbot··on Omicron at 100% Prevalence, Colorado
But future human actions do not put evolutionary pressure on the virus. First the possible new variant emerges, our actions come later.
bayesianbot··on Some Vermonters turn to ayahuasca as a 'last resort' to heal
That might feel like ayahuasca wasn't the cure-all, but hear me out.

I was an absolute alcoholic in beginning of 2018 (and for 10+ yeas before that). I knew I was probably going to die really early from drinking, but I had no motivation to stop. I did not see it happening at all.

Then I had few psychedelic trips with friend on mountains, and everything changed. I was still an alcoholic, I still drank way too much. But suddenly I had all the motivation needed, I knew I had to stop, I wanted to stop, I knew I will stop. If I could explain the experience, I had seen far in the future the ways my life could go, and at that point I made the easiest choice ever, that I'll have to pick the sober route.

It didn't happen instantly, I was still addicted, I had a lot of setbacks, alcohol is powerful drug. It took me few years, but now I've limited my alcohol use to tiny tiny percentage of what it used to be.

I know it was the psychedelics, because how my thinking changed in that special time, a complete 180 turn, biggest part being the night of the best LSD trip I had. If you were to ask my friends, they would not attribute it to psychedelics. In their mind I was alcoholic, went to mountains, came back alcoholic, and then few years later wasn't really drinking anymore. They'd be wrong, but I can understand how they feel that way.

bayesianbot··on Welcoming our first riders in San Francisco
In Finland we had a law that required the taxi monopoly to provide services even in rural areas, so disabled and elderly people could get transportation to services they need. Worked well in my town of 7 000 people except sometimes on weeknights the only driver could be in the next city 50km away.

(Had, as in they changed the law few years back. Not sure how it's now)

Robotaxi(s) could be quite good solution to the problem - the drivers were often pissed if you called them for a single ride when they were home or far away.

bayesianbot··on The world must cooperate to avoid colliding satellites and space debris
Sure, but when two objects collide and transform into 1000 objects, a lot more than two of them will find semi-stable orbits. And by semi-stable I mean it doesn't have to be stable as like with satellite, it just have to stay up there for years to be a problem.
bayesianbot··on Amazon Kindles with 3G will start to lose cellular network access in December
In Finland I can buy a prepaid and unlimited 200 Mbps for 25€ a month or 7.90€ a week. In Thailand I get $2.10 for 10GB / 5 days or $1 for unlimited 24 hour 8Mbps. In Cambodia basically any data package is around $1 / GB with month validity, but usually with all the promotions and extra data they throw in it ends up being much cheaper. Vietnam is so cheap it's basically free, first package I checked was $1.30, 7GB for 7 days.
bayesianbot··on The scientists hired by big oil who predicted the climate crisis long ago
Or how they can't see how much oil companies would be willing to spend if they could prove them wrong.

Or how the basic problem is so simple physics, you'd have to bribe either a significant percentage of the population or actual laws physics to succeed in this conspiracy.

bayesianbot··on Grand jury subpoena for Signal user data, Central District of California
Is there? I'm definitely the kind of person who wants to set up my own server and bridges for it at some point, but when I tried Matrix for the first time last week I just created an account at matrix.org, installed a quite polished client and just started chatting.
bayesianbot··on We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis
There are a lot of dating sites at least in Scandinavia/central europe, where men pay per message (or usually buy message packs, it ends up being around 1€ a message IIRC).

The (mostly) men answering these messages, pretending to be women, get paid around 0.15€ per reply. And obviously writing messages where they try to prolong the conversation and turn down real life meetings or changing to other (free) messaging system "for now"

bayesianbot··on Facebook Down?
Everything up and working again (in Thailand at least), that was fast
bayesianbot··on How to convert your old laptop screen into an external monitor
Since synergy is currently asking money for their main product, I've changed to fork called barrier ( https://github.com/debauchee/barrier ).

But +1 for the recommendation, so easy to set up and it works so well it feels like magic when using for first time.

bayesianbot··on Scientists talked to people in their lucid dreams
I really, really like closing my nose (with fingers) and mouth and trying to breath. It takes so little time, can be done anywhere and without anyone noticing and seems to work extremely easily in dreams for me. Lot of the other recommendations I've read are much harder. (As in flying or putting a hand through a wall were hard to do at first even when I knew I was dreaming. Looking at clock multiple times requires a clock. And all look weird if done in public)

So my technique is find some situation I'm in pretty often in both dreams and in real life, and do this check every time in that situation. After a while it's like a reflex and sometimes I even think I'm surely not dreaming and get surprised.

bayesianbot··on Build an SMS Forwarder with Raspberry Pi Zero W and Waveshare SIM7000E Hat
The APIs for bot programming for telegram are great - good documentation, stable, lots of options/libraries for different languages, and possible to do much more complex bots than other messaging platforms.
bayesianbot··on Bitcoin surpasses $50K as major companies jump into crypto
Luckily I'm absolutely terrible with money. I was talking about bitcoin to everyone in 2011, but didn't invest myself as I thought I didn't have enough to put for it to matter.

Had I invested, I'd have wasted the coins long time ago, and would be just kicking myself daily or on suicide watch.

bayesianbot··on How Billionaire Robert Smith Avoided Indictment in Multimillion-Dollar Tax Case
To the latter part of top post, for a billionaire utility value and expected value are equal as if he gains or loses a few million it doesn't matter. For smaller player they can be completely different, yes a few thousand can be a good income gain, but getting caught can mean they get completely ruined.

So if expected value of tax cheating in vacuum is - lets imagine - 20% of the amount of taxes cheated, billionaire should cheat on taxes in every situation, as they simply gain 20% on average. Smaller player shouldn't, as even though their expected value is the same, their utility value can be completely different as they might take a risk of ruining their business and losing future income and hugely lowering their quality of life.

edit: and also for small amounts the way down is much harsher on the utility value, so being a favorite to gain 10k might not be worth it, if the possible -15k means your lifestyle suffers.

bayesianbot··on Bitcoincore.org removes Satoshi's whitepaper from website after threats from CSW
I can still import a wallet from at least 2012 and move the coins using the official client just like it was created yesterday.

edit: and obviously you can't remember that but if you encrypt your wallet you can save it to long term storages like Dropbox / differrent servers / medias / etc, what Satoshi would most likely be doing

bayesianbot··on TabFS: Mount your Browser Tabs as a Filesystem
You can a) right-click a stack overflow tab, stack them and then close them all or b) control-ddubleclick one site and Vivaldi will autoselect all from same domain.
bayesianbot··on Cyberpunk 2077 runs on Linux through the Proton compatibility layer
You have to install 32bit driver libraries to run steam. On Debian/Ubuntu/Mint it's libnvidia-gl-455:i386 package.

I couldn't run steam after upgrading to 455, and noticed it was because CUDA and some other unofficial display driver PPA in my sources.list was blocking simultaneous 64bit and 32bit install. After removing those, I could install the package again.

bayesianbot··on What if a pill can change your politics or religious beliefs?
Same is true for me, I did some lsd trips but didn't really change me that much. Then one time tripping it all clicked, I could see my options for the future, and I knew what to do. I was struggling with alcoholism back then and slightly sometime also now, but the will to drink is 10% of what it used to be, as I've seen the path I can take without drinking. Made me much more happy and social also
bayesianbot··on Nvidia Broadcast App
What other software would you suggest for good quality real time background removal? The ones I've tried I've been stuck with pretty bad artefacts.
bayesianbot··on Nikola: How to Parlay an Ocean of Lies into a Partnership with GM
What possibly could they have to offer for Toyota? It doesn't look like they did any work or even had anyone capable of researching hydrogen cells working for them.

Instead of advancing technology, they might have taken funding and credibility actual companies could have used.

The founder has so far answered just one real question on twitter, about what they were going to bring to the GM produced car: "100% a badger. We will use common parts for example; tires, window regulators, hvac, brakes & batteries to drive down cost, but the badger is completely a badger. The infotainment, displays, software, ota, app, cab, interior, user experience, sales, service, warranty etc is ours"

That's a long way to say they'll use their software and sales team.

bayesianbot··on NTFS read-write GPL kernel driver
I've been writing to my NTFS volume for around 5-10 years I think, out of the box with Linux Mint. (Or maybe an extra package from apt-get, not 100%). Extra options needed and possible data loss when writing used to be a thing, but a long time ago.
bayesianbot··on Hackers take over prominent Twitter accounts in simultaneous attack
Lots and lots of crypto accounts hacked. Either Twitter is hacked or some automated tweeting system has a 0day.
← PreviousPage 6 of 7Next →