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birken

5,627 karma · joined April 21, 2010

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birken··on Cost of ultra-rapid EV charging increases by almost 50%
Ultra-rapid fast charging really should only be used on long road trips, which is likely a fraction of the average driver's mileage. The vast majority of EV charging should be slow charging at home, where the owner should be able to time their electricity usage so they are always paying around the cheapest rate.

So even if this is true, it probably will only have a negligible effect on the total operating cost for an EV.

birken··on S.F. population fell 6.3%, most in nation, to lowest level since 2010
One thing to note is that the 2021 population is an estimate, and if you are a Census buff as I am, and compare the Census' 2019 estimates to the 2020 actual populations (as calculated from the census), there are often very large differences.

The article also says that CA's estimate of the population decline is much smaller, and arguably CA itself would have more accurate data for this particular metric (residency and voter rolls).

So while I'm sure the gist of the argument is true, there is probably a larger margin of error on the calculation than you'd think at first glance. I'm not quite going to say the article is sensationalist, but if you look at the totality of the data (house prices, rental prices, CA's population estimates, etc), I'm not sure the "SF is in freefall" narrative holds up.

birken··on Twitter Deal Temporarily on Hold
Because if he didn't think the government would approve the deal, he shouldn't have made the offer in the first place. By making the offer he is creating a massive amount of distraction and uncertainty for the company-to-be-acquired, and if in the end the deal is voided because the government blocks it, then the company-to-be-acquired need to be compensated for all the wasted time and effort that went into a failed deal.

This is very common in large acquisitions and mergers. Remember, Must didn't have to include the $1B walk-away fee. But if he didn't, then the board may have been much less likely to accept the offer.

birken··on How to get rid of gerrymandering: the math is surprising
edit: was describing a jungle primary
birken··on Obama argues unregulated social media is a threat to democracy
Well to be fair, Democrats won in "landslides" in 2008, 2012 and 2020.
birken··on The most popular chess streamer on Twitch
For all of those getting excited about Hikaru in the candidates, keep in mind the 3 strongest players in the world who aren't Magnus didn't play in the FIDE Grand Prix for various reasons: Alireza Firouzja (already qualified), Ding Liren (weird travel restrictions) and Fabi (already qualified).

At least two of them and likely all 3 are going to be in the candidates, so this is just going to be an entirely different level of competition. The betting odds put Hikaru at <10% chance to win, which seems about right to me. Hikaru was also in trouble at various times in the FIDE Grand Prix but escaped some very bad positions with draws, which against higher level competition he might not be so lucky.

I'm not necessarily a Hikaru fan, but I enjoyed his post-game recaps after the grand prix matches, because that type of analysis isn't something any other top level players are going to do for fear of revealing some weaknesses that opponents can seize upon (and believe me... Hikaru's opponent's teams will be scouting those videos). However, not caring can only get you so far as the level of competition increases.

birken··on Friday.app is shutting down
I think your idea fails for at least a couple key reasons. First, a lot of customers will probably migrate to competitor if they know the product isn't in active development anymore, so the MRR will likely drop over time. Second, investors are not going to just give up their equity while the owner directly profits off their investment, there would have to be some type of buy-back, and the owner probably doesn't have that kind of money.
birken··on Chrome 100
Part of the reason that IE6/7 was so annoying is that those browsers had a large market share but also lacked the features of the other leading browsers so you always had to bend over backwards to make your code support both.

Chrome does not have that problem. I fully appreciate the monopoly/privacy concerns, but Chrome being the market leading browser is 100x better from a development perspective then when you had to worry about IE6.

birken··on Josh Wardle created Wordle as part of an ongoing quest to design online spaces
To offset all the negative comments, I'll agree with the premise of the article: Wordle was a nice thing that didn't seem to have any of the negative emergent behaviors of his past projects.

It's a fun thing that everybody in my family does and gets to chat about every day. It's very cool that a guy wrote a piece of software that has positively impacted millions of people, and it's very cool that he was able to make money from it, and it's very cool that it is being supported and maintained in perpetuity by its new owner.

I also don't understand all the complaining about ads and trackers. I guess every single person here releases every project completely out of the goodness of their own hearts without any analytics or ads or any aspirations to monetize it? If so, good for you, but just because something may be monetized (probably tastefully) at some point in the future doesn't take away from the fact that a cool and fun thing was created.

birken··on Tim Cook tells employees the return to offices will begin on April 11th
If the public are also "following the data", then the polling data and scientific consensus are likely to be highly correlated. I don't think it is nefarious at all that the general public and political leaders come to the same conclusions at about the same time when both are reacting same set of factors.
birken··on Bypass Paywalls: a browser extension to help bypass paywalls for selected sites
The different search engines generally give you ways to validate their crawlers, either with publicly disclosed IP ranges or DNS lookups.
birken··on Tim Cook tells employees the return to offices will begin on April 11th
So you contend that "the Democrats" (who obviously are a fully united entity who never disagree) should have kept all the restrictions even though the Omicron wave is ending?

What should they have done?

birken··on Tim Cook tells employees the return to offices will begin on April 11th
The peak of the delta wave was 160k cases/day, and the current case levels are ~52k/day. So given that, you think most areas are having higher case loads than the peak of the delta wave? You just aren't look at the data. There is also strong reason to believe that right after a huge wave is over you can expect a relatively smooth period of time to follow since so many people will have extra immunity from having recovered from covid.

The people making these decisions are not idiots, they can look at the data and make sane and rational predictions about what might happen in the future, and then adapt if necessary.

birken··on Tim Cook tells employees the return to offices will begin on April 11th
So for example, you consider the 3 Democratic Governors of California, Oregon and Washington ending their state's various mask mandates 4+ months after the VA election to be "eager to end COVID restrictions no matter what".

Do you think the Omicron wave might have had more to do with the COVID restrictions than the VA governor's race?

birken··on Tim Cook tells employees the return to offices will begin on April 11th
You don't think the fact that this country just had the largest ever COVID wave (in terms of cases), which is in the process of ending, is at all related to the decisions?

Also of the scant 40 million people remaining in California, who haven't yet moved to Texas or Florida, public support for at least some "COVID protocols" are very high [1]. I'm not sure you are giving an impartial assessment of the facts.

1: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-02-24/californ...

birken··on Someone should probably start a bright home lighting company (2019)
There are many aquarium lighting companies that make these types of fixtures, because this intensity of lighting is exactly what people want to (and do) simulate over their aquariums (though generally at spectrums that are bluer than daylight)!

I think in terms of cost what the OP is not realizing is that when you are talking about hundreds of watts of LEDs, that is a lot of heat that is very concentrated. It takes a thoughtful design and active cooling to ensure the fixture is safe and the LEDs are kept at the proper temperates to maximize their life and performance. You don't really need to worry about active cooling when you have a few low wattage LED bulbs spread throughout a room. But cram a ton of them together in a small area and you absolutely do.

birken··on Indian teen chess grandmaster beats Magnus Carlsen in online rapid tournament
This is noted in another comment, but it should be a top level comment... Magnus actively has COVID and has said that it was affecting his energy levels and ability to calculate during the early rounds of the tournament (during which this game happened).

And Pragg wasn't even the lowest rated player to beat Magnus this tournament! Eric Hansen, aka popular chess streamer "chessbrah", is even lower rated and also beat Magnus, which again you would not expect if Magnus were playing his usual level.

So still a great win and great accomplishment for Pragg, but a little context would have been nice in the article.

birken··on Peloton replaces CEO and lays off 2,800 people
Every company in history could have remained smaller and more efficient. Amazon could still be an online bookstore with higher margins than they have now. It is very normal and natural for companies take risks to grow, and sometimes those risks pay off and sometimes they don't. It is very results oriented to see what happened and then say they shouldn't have tried.

Peloton is also far from insolvent. I'm not saying they were mismanaged or not, but the fact that the gamble they made didn't pay off is not on its own evidence they shouldn't have tried.

birken··on Google gives execs raises after declining to boost employees' pay
Having multiple windows each year to sell your stock/options at fair market prices is a luxury that very, very few people working at startups gets. This is a ridiculous thing to complain about. For the vast majority of people having 4 trading windows per year is more than enough to adjust their portfolio based on their financial strategy.
birken··on Search engines and SEO spam
The funny thing is that if the people who worked on spam at Google were free to talk about it, I'm sure it would become evident that they know more about spam and anti-spam efforts than anybody else in existence. It's a ridiculously hard problem, especially when people are targeting you directly. But they aren't free to talk about it, because if they did it would just give more assistance to the spammers, and make the problem worse.

I'm not saying that curated search results for particular verticals is a terrible idea (though I'm sure like anything the devil is in the details), but on the whole Google search is very, very good considering the constant assault they are under from spammers (which most other search engines are not, at least directly).

birken··on Hacking a VW Golf Power Steering ECU
The driver is always responsible for what their vehicle does. As long as the driver can override the steering (which they can), then there is really nothing to be concerned about. This is the same for cars using openpilot, or Tesla's self driving systems or any other steering assistance features.
birken··on Risk of myocarditis following sequential COVID-19 vaccinations by age and sex [pdf]
It saturates the body to such a degree that the "worst" vaccine in the "worst" age group creates an extra 30 cases of myocarditis per million people?

Edit: 100 per million, thanks for the correction. 0.01% of people.

birken··on Magnus Carlsen wins longest world chess championship game of all time
Yes, but also keep in mind Ian has a lot of agency. Throughout the first 6 games, he has had moments to make the games more chaotic, increasing the chances of one side having an advantage, and thus far he has almost always played calmer, less chaotic moves.

Now he will likely have to change tactics and enter into more aggressive and risky ideas. It should increase the odds of a decisive result one way or the other going forward, regardless of whether Magnus is "playing for a draw" or not.

birken··on Google's infamous internal 2010 “I just want to serve 5TB” video now public
Hey... those of us that worked on Google's internal Bigtable service worked very hard so you didn't have a file to a ticket to set up replication between your Bigtable cells.

The rest does seem about accurate though.

birken··on Tim Sweeney: Tax bill would likely end founder control of independent companies
Elon Musk controls less than 25% of the voting shares of Tesla, yet the company still exists and in fact is thriving.

How many shares of Apple did Steve Jobs control when he was the CEO?

This is just a ridiculous argument that companies can only succeed if the Founders/CEOs have absolute voting control. There are many examples of shareholders being more than happy to put their votes behind whatever the CEO wants as long as they believe in the CEO.

birken··on WHO asks South African startup to replicate Moderna's mRNA vaccine
The US may have gambled with the $2.5 billion dollar investment but it obviously paid off hugely and Moderna delivered essentially perfectly on their promises. I can understand why from their perspective they feel like they have already contributed quite a bit to ending the pandemic, at a very good price for the US taxpayer, and don't want to give away all their secrets.

I'm not defending the moral argument, but I think in terms of ROI you could only argue that Moderna got underpaid by the US government based on what they delivered.

birken··on Pro rata is a bad term for founders
This is a ridiculous situation. Why would you possibly plow more money into a company that is actively adversarial against you?

If a company tries to screw you like this, you have shareholder rights. If you are a big enough fish that you are getting into crazy financing battles like this, then you are not the target audience for this post.

birken··on U.S. opens probe into Tesla’s Autopilot over emergency vehicle crashes
Absolutely not true as a blanket statement. Maybe if the driver monitoring is so lax that you could conceivably trick the car into poorly driving itself, but the system I use, Comma [1], has incredibly strict driver monitoring.

There is absolutely no doubt I'm a safer driver with Comma than without it. I'm still in control, but Comma not only allows me to expend less effort driving (which allows me to stay alert over longer periods of time), but also be much less emotional when driving. I'm pretty convinced that a large percentage of accidents are caused by frustrated or bored drivers doing crazy things that you just don't feel the urge to do with the assistance of self-driving.

1: https://comma.ai/

birken··on Comma Three Devkit
I've only driven my car, but Consumer Reports tested a bunch of cars and rated Comma the best [1]. Maybe another car since then is better, but of course Comma is always getting updated and you just download the new version to your device when it comes out.

1: https://data.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/...

birken··on Comma Three Devkit
Installation is not consumer friendly (though I'm sure any auto shop would happily install it), but functionality certainly is. My wife who is not particularly tech savvy has no problem using Comma.

I have a car that isn't even the best for Comma because of steering limits (Honda CRV), and on road trips I've been able to not touch the steering wheel or accelerator/brake for 30+ minutes on open stretches of the 101. You'd think it doesn't matter all that much, but it saves so much energy. A 4 hour drive feels like a 1 hour drive. Monitoring that the car is driving sensibly uses far less energy than actually driving.

And as you say, in bumper to bumper traffic it is just amazing. I was in a 2.5 (!) hour backup between LA and San Diego a few weeks ago and Comma did 99% of the driving. And the only times I had to take over were when other frustrated drivers were doing insane things out of boredom or anger that endangered me. Computers don't get frustrated or angry! The aggravation saved on that one trip paid for the cost.

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