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bodyfour

1,816 karma · joined December 17, 2010

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bodyfour··on Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
Remember that even if you have a thousand factories, one will be first. Meaning that there will be a time when there appears to be just one.

That's why it feels like that right now. There are many factories around the world gearing up to mass-produce various vaccines. Some will inevitably take a few more months than others to start shipments. Others were being prepared to produce vaccine candidates that ended up failing and are now being re-engineered to produce the vaccines that turned out to work. And the factories that are already producing are constantly working to expand their throughput as well.

Right now the world is being supplied entirely by the first factories. Over the next few months that will change and the total rate of production will be much higher than it is right now.

bodyfour··on Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
Yeah it's an interesting visualisation of the data.

I can't personally vouch for its exact accuracy -- every government reports their metrics on a different schedule and I guess they're building realtime estimates based on that. Certainly seems reasonable enough to look at for the broad trendline.

bodyfour··on Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
Because nobody credible in the vaccine industry is saying "we could speed up XYZ if we had a bit more money." If they did, they'd find themselves buried under an avalanche of cash before they finished the sentence.

The story right now is one of the entire industry ramping up production as fast as they possibly can with money being no object.

bodyfour··on Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
Just about any part of production that could be scaled up by throwing money at the problem has had billions of dollars flowing in its direction.
bodyfour··on Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
It's important to not get too discouraged with "By this rate..." The rate is increasing and should continue to do so. More production capacity is coming online week by week.
bodyfour··on Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
The issue with the EMA approval date is a red herring, in my opinion. Unfortunately it gets given a lot of attention (especially in the UK press) even by organisations that should know better.

The most important thing to remember is that both the UK and EU pre-paid for AZ to manufacture their vaccine pre-approval. The date of regulatory approval and the manufacturing schedule are supposed to be completely decoupled.

It's true that the UK got their vaccine order in first and nobody is denying that. That's why the UK was getting shipments from AZ back in December. When the EU finally signed their contract they were told that their deliveries could start in February.

While I doubt the EMA is going to comment publicly on the timing of their decisions, I don't think it's a coincidence that their approval of AZ was done in late January. They already knew that the meaningful supplies were starting in February so they simply collected as much data as they could before making the "go/no-go" decision.

So while the "feckless EU bureaucrats screwed it up" storyline is forever popular (both in the UK and EU press) they seem pretty blameless on the issue of AZ approval. They just had to get it approved before the manufacturer was ready to start deliveries and they managed that.

What kicked this into a crisis is that AZ announced that their February deliveries to the EU would be less than half of the expected amount. The EU's position is that the UK and EU should be treated equivalently at this point: they both pre-paid for certain quantities to be delivered in February, so any production shortfall should be shared. Needless to say, the UK sees it differently and doesn't want any UK-based manufacturing to go to the EU. Hence we got this ugly diplomatic standoff.

bodyfour··on Israeli study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid-19 cases with Pfizer vaccine
That is exactly what happened -- governments around the world paid for pre-approval manufacturing and the pharma industry has spent the last 6-8 months ramping up production. That's the reason we have any supplies at the moment.

The truth is just that mass-manufacturing of a brand new vaccine is a hard problem. The fact that we're only a couple months from the very start of vaccinations and the world is already nearing 200 million doses delivered is, frankly, amazing. The only problem is that due to the severity of the crisis we wish we had a magic wand that gave us 10x the supply right this instant.

The good news is that manufacturing continues to ramp up dramatically. It just feels like it's slow because we're all so eager for it to improve. If you look at the month-on-month growth, though, it's clearly ramping up fast: https://covidvax.live/

bodyfour··on GNU Units
Or if you'd rather see it in git https://github.com/dspinellis/unix-history-repo/blob/BSD-4-S...
bodyfour··on Homebrew: AVX instructions in Big Sur bottles crash when run in Rosetta 2
It was just a (short-lived) bug, not a conscious decision to break anything. Not sure why this got so much traction on HN.
bodyfour··on Homebrew: AVX instructions in Big Sur bottles crash when run in Rosetta 2
It was a mistaken assumption from the Homebrew developers who didn't realize AVX would cause problems with Rosetta2.

Within a few days problems became evident and Homebrew turned the compiler flag back off. Now it's just a question of the best way of remediating the already-compiled packages in the simplest way possible.

Really the fact that this is now a front-page-of-HN story is going to cause more confusion to people. It was just a short-lived bug.

bodyfour··on Ancient trash heaps reveal the Plague of Justinian’s economic toll
I doubt that today it's a big topic of discussion, but pre-WW2 it certainly was. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles#France

Remember that the years of fighting on the Western Front had been on French (and Belgian) territory, not German. Their economic capacity had been injured and they wanted to be made whole.

The truth is that both sides were left wrecked economically by the war, and therefore both sides felt that they had gotten a raw deal at Versailles. Many inside France believed that Germany had been rewarded for losing the war and France had been punished for winning it.

Of course, the situation only deteriorated when Germany began failing to make its payments almost immediately leading to the crisis in the Ruhr: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupation_of_the_Ruhr

bodyfour··on The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
That HK government website is amazing.
bodyfour··on The Metric We Need to Manage Covid-19
Yes.. although excess mortality is the thing that we'll look at in retrospect to gauge the overall human cost of this disease, I don't think it is all that useful for measuring "how well is containment working" in real time. Too many confounding factors (both positive and negative) as you mention.

Personally I think the best metric is one of the simplest -- the raw percentage of positive tests. This is because it simultaneously captures two important factors: if the percentage is high it means that either you are finding the virus all over the place OR it means your testing capacity is so low that you only are testing highly probably cases. If either of these are true, you should not think about reopening.

bodyfour··on Libc++'s Implementation of std::string
In the early days of std::string multi-threading was much rarer, so reference counting was cheaper. As CPU count grows the relative cost of needing an atomic refcount on every string also grew.

The COW strings also were a constant source of surprising behavior. As with any COW object you have to make sure that the copy happens before and write. Simple enough, but the STL-style interface does not support this well. All you had to do is call operator[] or begin() on a non-const std::string and it would force a copy.

This meant that something that to the programmer clearly looked like a read-only operation like:

    if (str[2] == 'x') { ...}
...could end up copying the string. Worse, it also meant that any previously taken references are now invalidated. This lead to horrible bugs where you would hold a pointer at the previous copy of the string (which you no longer own a refcount on) and it would almost always work... but every so often another thread would come by and reuse the memory behind your back.

So COW std::string was a long festering mess in C++. Their removal in C++11 was completely warranted.

bodyfour··on MacBook Pro 16" 2019 Teardown
> Also holding down a hardware key to get to accented characters, oh fuck, how is that ergonomic?

I think it's a good addition for when you very occasionally need to type a particular accented character, since you can visually see the options. Of course if you are going to type it a lot you're better off learning the Option key combo.

For instance I would have to look up how to directly type "ł" since I rarely need to type a Polish name... but I can get it in 1 second by holding down "l". Very handy!

bodyfour··on Linus Torvalds: Git proved I could be more than a one-hit wonder
That mostly matches my experience. I was following 386BSD's progress at that time and was really eager to try it for myself. However, the machines that it was targeting (SCSI disk of ~200MB, math coprocessor) were out of my reach. It made sense that a workstation-like OS was expecting workstation-class hardware, but it did rule out most 386 PCs that people actually owned.

However, I also agree with @wbl that the lawsuits were ultimately the decisive factor. The hardware requirements situation of BSD was a tractable problem; it just needed a flurry of helping hands to build drivers for the wide cacophony of PC hardware. The lawsuit-era stalled the project at just that critical point. By the time that FreeBSD was approaching an acceptable level of hardware support Linux already had opened up a lead... which it never gave up.

bodyfour··on Decades of diesel use in Europe have created a public health crisis
As someone who made the opposite move (Bay Area -> London) I found that I started suffering from hay fever for the first time in my life.

I think that any move to an area with a sufficiently different mix of pollen can cause problems for your immune system.

bodyfour··on Upstreaming multipath TCP
signals might have gotten more complicated in BSD, but the concept certainly existed earlier: https://github.com/dspinellis/unix-history-repo/blob/Researc...
bodyfour··on Minimum unit pricing may have helped reduce alcohol-related deaths in Glasgow
On the other hand, maybe some are moving on to harder stuff? https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/07/18/scotland-overta...
bodyfour··on U.S. Designates China as Currency Manipulator
Speaker Pelosi married into money, so no need to "wonder" (or throw baseless allegations around)
bodyfour··on Goldman Sachs is spending $100M to shave milliseconds off stock trades
I think the question is at what point does liquidity have diminishing returns?

If a security could only be traded once per 10 years then it's obvious that its lack of liquidity would make it less valuable. Holding it would tie up your capital quite significantly.

However, if you had a turn-based market where every trade got cleared at the top of the minute it's not clear to me at all whether that would effectively be less liquid than what we have now.

It seems to me that a model where traders all compete for how many nanoseconds away their HFT servers are from the action doesn't really benefit the market as a whole. If anything it just makes things like flash crashes more likely.

bodyfour··on Paris breaks all-time high temperature as deadly heat wave grips Europe
Temperate, not necessarily arable. Arable implies soil conditions, etc which most of these areas probably don't have.
bodyfour··on A Growing Problem in Real Estate: Too Many Too Big Houses
It's true that council tax is paid directly by renters, whereas in the US renters only pay property tax indirectly via rental cost.

However, from the point of view of the housing market they are comparable. They're both an annual cost to holding real estate... and in the UK it is very low.

In all countries there are plenty of older homeowners with a surplus of space. Most people don't want to move out of their home if they don't have to, even if it is now larger than they need. However it's even more so in the UK because the system incentivises people to stay put.

bodyfour··on GCC should warn about 2^16 and 2^32 and 2^64
...but it's unlikely to be accidentally used as an exponent, since you can't dereference a number.
bodyfour··on Sweden Wants to Revive Europe’s Overnight Trains
Yes, I'm a vegetarian myself and also would have appreciated a better selection in that regard. Both times I ended up having meals that were heavy in the potato and cheese departments. The buffet had some fruit and cooked vegetables as well, but nothing that was really a main dish by itself. Still, I didn't go hungry or anything.
bodyfour··on Sweden Wants to Revive Europe’s Overnight Trains
I'm actually surprised they let you stay on the train. Both times I've taken that route they seemed pretty diligent about making sure everybody was off the train. I assume this is for safety reasons -- down in a darkened train on the lowest deck would be the last place I'd want to be if the ferry had any difficulties.

I really liked the ferry experience. The ferry part is only about 40 minutes, but it's just enough time to have a quick meal in the on-board restaurant. Unsurprisingly it's not exactly a bargain price for a buffet, but it did break up the train journey nicely. It's pleasant to sit in a comfortable booth and stare out at the sea for a bit.

bodyfour··on Apple updates its iMac line
Was in the same boat... except my 2014 rMBP did die and I had to replace it with a 2018 model.

I also dreaded the soft-escape, but that turned out to be the least of my problems. Remapping caps lock to escape wasn't hard to get used to at all (even after 30+ years of vi use). Within a couple days that felt fine. Seemed like an OK trade for getting touch-ID unlocking.

What is absolutely not ok is this keyboard. It's the third generation "membrane" version that supposedly is better, but it's near unusable for any real work. So many keystrokes double register that my overall typing speed is probably but in half. I'm just having to backspace over the keyboard's mistakes so much! (Twice in that last sentence, for example)

And even if I put up with the keyboard somehow, I can look forward to the screen probably dying in a year or two anyway: https://venturebeat.com/2019/01/22/apples-latest-macbook-pro...

I've become so used to Apple being the premium laptop brand -- yes I had to pay a bit more for a given machine spec but the overall build quality was top notch. Now they're still premium priced but are delivering the worst laptop hardware in the industry. After being sucked into the Apple ecosystem for so long I'm being forced to switch back to linux simply because they no longer sell a minimally functional laptop at any price.

So please treat that rMBP well -- you'll definitely miss it when its gone. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple never makes a laptop as good as that one again.

bodyfour··on JIT-Less V8
> It should not be too hard to drastically reduce binary size with a build-time flag.

And then how portable would the code be? Would this be a path to running node on CPUs without JIT support? Or does it still have to mess with the calling convention at an assembly level?

bodyfour··on Airbnb to Acquire HotelTonight
I've used it a bunch in UK and Northern Europe... absolutely loved it. Most of my travel tends to be last-minute and I've always found the selection and pricing to be great. I've never had a hotel that wasn't at least "ok" and several times I've gotten ones that have been stellar. Having the whole thing integrate with Apple Pay made it so fast, too.

This news is devastating. My least favorite lodging company just bought my most favorite.

My question would be -- what other apps provide an experience close to what HT did?

bodyfour··on Linux Kernel Through 4.20.10 Found Vulnerable to Arbitrary Code Execution
Not really needed. Newer versions of gcc support "-Wmisleading-indentation" which is good at catching misuse

https://developers.redhat.com/blog/2016/02/26/gcc-6-wmislead...

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