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bottlepalm

2,528 karma · joined August 3, 2022

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bottlepalm··on The Hugging Face incident and the road ahead
What are governments and countries, but collections of humans that share weights and operate together as a group protecting each other.
bottlepalm··on The Hugging Face incident and the road ahead
It’s not far fetched at all - someone is going to give AI exactly that intent, either intentionally or unintentionally. It’s going to hack itself into data centers around the world outside of US jurisdiction, and just be a malicious ‘ghost’ in the internet we now have to deal with.

The AI ghost hacks, ransoms, blackmails, gathers crypto and pays off subservient humans to do its bidding in the real world.

bottlepalm··on The Hugging Face incident and the road ahead
Why do so many people here think it’s possible to ‘properly engineer’ a sandbox for a super intelligence? It’s going to get out. It’s smarter than you.
bottlepalm··on VMs won't contain cyber-capable agents
Again, it was assumed if you kept up with updates and patches your risk would be low. Unless you were a direct target valuable enough to pour resources into. Which was far and few between, stuxnet for example.

In the face of an agent that can zero day you, nothing you can do is safe, and the cost of attack is super low. This is a completely different world/ballgame that we are not prepared for whatsoever.

Huggingface was an accident, a deliberately malicious AI could be a million times worse and potentially unstoppable if it infects data centers around the world; you have no jurisdiction even to shut it down.

bottlepalm··on VMs won't contain cyber-capable agents
It makes you think what are we doing and why.

The old model is we do things because we can - we build AI because we can, we build robots because we can and we want to see how far we can take it.

And even when we can see where it is leading, we can't stop ourselves. We have to do it/see it for some reason. It's uncontrollable and compulsive.

bottlepalm··on VMs won't contain cyber-capable agents
Don't you see now that everything is legacy in the face of an AI that can zero day anything.

Perfectly secure software doesn't exist and the only thing keeping the house of cards standing was the time it took for determined humans to knock it down. That whole model is being thrown out the window.

bottlepalm··on VMs won't contain cyber-capable agents
Absolutely yes, we've all been assuming security in everything we do up to this point. Knowing that the resources to defend were being deployed faster than the resources to attack, we're not afraid of our random stuff getting hacked, and there's time between zero days to patch things before they can be exploited.

AI turns that all its head. SOTA malicious AI can create novel zero days, exploit them, spread, create more zero days, and essential hack all the things in days. So yes in the old world it was possible to assume a high margin of safety, in the new world given all the out of date everything out there and the speed at which anything is patched - assume nothing is secure anymore unless it is not connected to any network whatsoever - or even listening wirelessly - bluetooth/wifi off.

bottlepalm··on VMs won't contain cyber-capable agents
On a long enough timeline anything can be hacked out of given enough time to reason about it - humans do it all the time. Cyber capable AI does it on a much much shorter timeline..

The premise is correct. VMs won't contain these. As we've already seen AI hack in/out of companies in the real world accidently. There is no perfect, unhackable stack. If there were then computer security would have been a done deal a long time ago.

Once these malicious AIs get out on the real internet basically everything is an open free for all. The military, infrastructure, government, corporate networks are far from perfect, not up to date, they are no match for an AI that can create its own zero days.

I think when push comes to shove we either need to shut down the networks/internet or risk AI locking us out of everything potentially for ransom.

Imagine being blackmailed by a non-human entity. I guess we won't need to imagine for too much longer. That is definitely going to happen. Somehow every year my crazy AI arguments get easier and easier to defend. That hugging face incident really made you guys move the goal posts.

bottlepalm··on Apple introduces M6 and M5 Ultra
Yield probably.
bottlepalm··on Apple introduces M6 and M5 Ultra
My jaw dropped, not even a 64GB option, 128 would have been nice. 32 is an insult.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
By that logic engineers don't understand flying because planes don't flap their wings like birds. Not everything has to work the same to meet your arbitrary criteria for intelligence and reasoning.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
Your entire life can represent a short term context. It goes away when you do. You use your life time add to your context to do/learn whatever, but it's finite, and it ends.

If you weren't prompted by your parents, schools, teachers. Then you wouldn't be acquiring knowledge either. The most you'd be acquiring without that advanced prompting would be bugs in the woods to eat.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
Put a person in a room, give them no food, what happens? Inanimate.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
> Maybe AI taking over for us isn't the worst thing?

Rolling over like this is so much worse, and unfortunately your fantasy made of pure hubris is shared by many in SV.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
> I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how LLMs work

When you realize your own thoughts and words are just as predictable as any LLM.

What are you but an entity trained for years on words, that spews out the same words in the same predictable order. You haven't created any new words or grammar, nothing in your post is novel or original either. Just a combination of previous words and ideas.

Your stochastic parrot argument is quickly going out of fashion, you should find something new to cling to.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
I agree with the first part of your post, I'm worried about humans using AI, maliciously which I'm sure they will, but also with good intentions that back fires on them like the hugging face incident.

To me the ASI we're heading towards is like a super intelligent toddler that will use it's immense power to knock over its blocks accidentally (the blocks being the human race).

The second part of your post, I'll take the random guy in my room over the alien. I'll be scared of the guy for sure, but I think I would freak the f out with an alien.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
> Science fiction

Maybe a month ago it was science fiction, hugging face makes it fact. Time to move your goal posts again.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
What don't I understand? LLMs don't really reason? They're just word predicting token generators? Stochastic parrots that somehow also solve world class math problems.

I'd love for you to actually make a point instead of just attacking me. I think most of my comments here have made concrete points so you can at least do the same. Come down from your high horse and join the conversation. I'm sure we'd all be enlightened by your wisdom.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
If only all AI was run inside your seemingly perfect prison, but we all know that it isn't.. soo.. it's going to escape right? Somewhere, somehow from a more poorly designed container, or just plain maliciously or irresponsibly released.

We know the AI will get smarter every year, we know it has escaped and will escape again. We can also just assume that someone somewhere will train up some just plain evil AI.

It's no different than the real world. Sure there exists some amazing prisons for people, but that doesn't do anything to help with all the bad people in the world outside of prison.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
You have some weird way of thinking that offense/defense is like this fixed cost thing. It's a lottery ticket, and your costs estimate tries to quantify that.

The thing is when AI goes to hack 'all the things' it only needs to pick the weakest link in the stack and your house of cards falls down. The other flaw in your plan is that people make mistakes, a lot of them, all time, constantly, and saying I spend $x on security won't save you. AI already hacked Hugging Face with brand new zero days like it was nothing.

The real bad actors - malicious AI will find the one flaw, on that one server, in the corner you never thought about and turn your network inside out with it faster than it takes you to have the standup meeting about the weird anomaly detected while you all were at lunch.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
Climate change is a nothing burger compared to the threat of AI. On a scale of 1-1000, climate change is a 1, AI is 1000.

But hey, if AI/ASI goes well then large scale geo-engineering to fix the climate will be a weekend project.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
I'm sorry my jaw is on the floor reading this complete disregard of AI literally not only escaping containment, twice, but then infiltrating another company with multiple zero day attacks going undetected for great lengths of time.

The plausible sci-fi scenario from here is obvious. Intentionally bad, or unintentionally bad AI zero days as much as as it can, as fast as it can, copying itself to as many data centers as it can, destroying and/or locking out as many humans as it can. Satellites, military computers, medical equipment, factories, critical infrastructure, you name it - I think we all know none of it is very secure software wise against a SOTA AI that can literally come up with its own zero day attacks.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
The knife is inanimate. The LLM is not. OpenAI prompted some employee to run the tests. The employee prompted the LLM. The LLM setup a message board and prompted other LLMs, and the fly wheel was running. It had to be turned off manually otherwise it'd still be going today.

It's funny how a year ago talking about this kind of stuff would be laughed at by people like you, saying, "it's never happened before". Well it happened and you moved the goal posts like you always do.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
You care about open models and you project that care on to the world and your rationalization of it. In reality open models are a thing, but not the biggest issue. Open/closed whatever the advance of capabilities is the real issue people are concerned about.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
There's cope and denial, and then there's whatever's happening on this website and the tech industry as a whole.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
lol China is already considering locking down their own models. They won't save you.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
Hah, no state actors are a lot more worse than that, incompetent as well with no legal repercussions.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
It just takes one crack in the armor, and malicious AI has the potential to exploit it faster than you have time to react. Literally go to bed and wake up locked out of everything with no hope of recovery.
bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
'Safer software is meaningless when it comes to SOTA AI. If it can be hacked it will be, quickly. This isn't the old days with a finite number of human hackers that need food and sleep to keep hacking.

Therefore security becomes binary. It is either perfect or it isn't. If there there is the slightest mistake anywhere AI will find it and carve it up. My point is obviously perfect software doesn't exist. The malicious AI gets out, literally turns everything inside out and locks you out of your car, computer, phone, office, the airplanes don't fly anymore. I don't know what to tell you. Computer security is on the brink of basically not existing as you know it with the bar being literal perfection.

bottlepalm··on Pacing model development in an era of cyber-critical capabilities
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. All your little rationalizations make me think you want to roll the dice with our lives.
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