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cal5k

2,800 karma · joined August 1, 2010

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cal5k··on Sam Altman goes before US Congress to propose licenses for building AI
If LLMs/AI are the problem, they're also the solution. Access restrictions will do nothing but centralize control over one of the most important developments of the century.

What if we required licenses to create a website? After all, some unscrupulous individuals create websites that sell drugs and other illicit things!

cal5k··on Sam Altman goes before US Congress to propose licenses for building AI
This. DALL-E (at least the currently available version) is way too focused on "safety" to be interesting. The creativity unleashed by the SD community has been mind-blowing.
cal5k··on Help make mass surveillance of entire populations uneconomical
Yes, it really is so bad. People are unbelievably ignorant of history.

What happens when the state intelligence apparatus has the ability to perfectly surveil the population? Look no further than what the Stasi accomplished - it becomes trivially easy to discredit political opposition, journalists, business leaders, or any other person or group standing in the way of the powerful.

People split hairs about this kind of oversight, or that kind of oversight, but when the powerful are overseeing their own surveillance apparatus - using secret courts, secret warrants, and all manner of other methods for hiding the true scope of the surveillance - I do not believe it can be contained.

cal5k··on Call on the IRS to provide libre tax-filing software
A better solution would be to scrap income & capital gains tax altogether, thus sparing 90%+ of taxpayers from having to file at all.

Shifting to a higher consumption tax would put the onus on businesses that sell things, not the average person.

It would also greatly reduce the need for governments to surveil citizens to make sure they're not evading taxes.

cal5k··on Ban on Tenure for New Faculty Hires Passes Texas Senate
Heavy government involvement in student loans created a perverse incentive to bloat costs (administration) and increase tuitions.

Classic bureaucratization, really... when the buyer and the seller of something (e.g. a university degree) are disconnected by way of, say, a flood of cheap student loans, the incentive structure for the bureaucracy is to increase its own budget, staff, and therefore power.

It's no wonder that administration has exploded along with tuitions.

Lack of tenured positions really has very little to do with it.

cal5k··on Ban on Tenure for New Faculty Hires Passes Texas Senate
It also only applies to public universities - private institutions can still do whatever they want.
cal5k··on Yes, it's OK to be mad about crime in San Francisco
> Sure, in some cases they won't be in the right place at the right time, but that's the price we pay for civilization and progress.

Not coming to the aid of a man who had just been stabbed is "progress"? How would you have felt in his shoes?

cal5k··on CFTC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao [pdf]
There's a big difference between offshore crypto - where the name of the game was (apparently) to evade US KYC/AML & securities law, and domestic companies trying to operate within the law.

Binance, FTX, etc. are the former, and I'd say Coinbase is the latter... there's a big difference between wilful non-compliance, and disagreements between regulators and counsel at firms like Coinbase about interpretation of law.

The fact that all of these regulatory actions are happening at once suggests that regulators either may not appreciate the difference or may not care, which is unfortunate.

cal5k··on How to use Alpaca-LoRA to fine-tune a model like ChatGPT
What if you died but your chatbot didn't know?
cal5k··on Block: Inflated user metrics and “frictionless” fraud facilitation
Risky move, given that Georgia is a constitutional carry state and castle doctrine extends to occupied vehicles.
cal5k··on SEC charges crypto entrepreneur Justin Sun and his companies for fraud
The revelation that FDIC (allegedly) forced Signature's acquirer to divest of cash holdings from crypto companies is another bit of evidence that anti-crypto regulatory activism is a very real thing.

Which is quite silly because crypto is still small peanuts compared to the bank failures that happened recently.

cal5k··on SVB shows that there are few libertarians in a financial foxhole
At the time they were purchased, central banks around the world were going out of their way to assure people that rates would not be going up for a long time.

Not excusing their failure to properly account for duration risk, but regulators didn't see this coming either - what they were doing was considered to be not only wholly acceptable, but downright "safe".

cal5k··on FDIC Takes over Silicon Valley Bank
That's what I'm saying. That's not the bank doing anything fancy and failing because of it, it's them not doing the basic things every bank should be doing.
cal5k··on FDIC Takes over Silicon Valley Bank
There's a big difference between accounting for KNOWN risks wrt managing your treasury - something that every bank does as a matter of course - and trying new things.
cal5k··on FDIC Takes over Silicon Valley Bank
In fairness, it wasn't the risk-taking that did them in... it was the fact that they went all-in on 10-yr bonds at low interest rates and didn't adequately account for duration risk.
cal5k··on Builder's Remedy goes into effect in many California cities tomorrow
Median sale price in Houston is currently $310,500, vs $441,250 in Sacramento, $917,500 in LA and $1.3MM in SF.

Aesthetic judgments aside, seems like a winning strategy for housing affordability?

cal5k··on Tesla calls self-driving technology 'failure,' not fraud
This whole thread smacks of this type of cynicism - apparently a lot of tech people now really, really hate Elon Musk.

Andrej Karpathy addressed this point in his recent Lex Fridman interview - more sensors aren't necessarily better, and for each sensor you introduce a whole host of supply chain issues and physical constraints. By sticking to one sensor type that contains all of the information theoretically necessary to make decisions they've simplified the problem.

They bet pretty big on this approach... including by making their own silicon. I don't know how anyone could really believe that they're not earnestly pursuing eventual "Full Self-Driving" capability, even though they may still be far from that goal.

What they've achieved thus far is really impressive. That took a LOT of work.

cal5k··on Sperm counts worldwide are plummeting faster than we thought
Yikes. What the heck is going on in academia.
cal5k··on Twitter’s mass layoffs have begun
If that were actually true, why do so many people love working at Tesla/SpaceX? Clearly they don't have the same view of Elon's management style as you do.

The reality is that Twitter as a business (and, imho, as a product) was sorely in need of a course correction. Layoffs, if they need to be done, should be done crisply and thoroughly so that remaining employees don't feel like the other shoe is about to drop.

You rip off the bandaid, it sucks, then you refocus on the work ahead.

cal5k··on Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims
Musk is an outspoken critic of the current administration. Given what we've seen from the Justice Department over the last few years, does it not seem highly likely that this is politically-motivated?
cal5k··on FTC to crack down on companies taking advantage of gig workers
Ask the leadership team at the Cleveland Clinic if they see patients as customers, and they'd say yes, absolutely.

This is one of the top hospital systems in the world, and they serve patients from all socioeconomic backgrounds. You may want to think about what information they have that you don't when it comes to delivering world-class healthcare.

cal5k··on FTC to crack down on companies taking advantage of gig workers
Government-owned hospitals are a bad idea in my view, because there's no incentive to provide good customer (patient) service, innovate, or move elective procedures to specialized surgical centres outside of a hospital centre. Nor any incentives to provide convenient non-hospital urgent care clinics like you see all over America.

The best hospital systems in the world, like Mayo Clinic and Cleveland Clinic, are generally non-profits operating in a mixed system where they take private insurance, out-of-pocket payments, and medicare/medicaid. They have to remain competitive otherwise they won't attract customers from out-of-state or out-of-country. If you basically force patients on the public system to only use certain government-run hospitals, you're dooming them to an inferior experience than what you could get by perhaps enhancing access to public pay for some services.

cal5k··on FTC to crack down on companies taking advantage of gig workers
Oh, okay. Let's ignore social determinants of health then and just say yes, Canada's system is prima facie superior. Case closed! Let's all adopt Canada's system

Outcomes aren't uniformly better, by the way. Canada routinely ranks near the bottom of the OECD and like one notch above America, but in America you can get the best healthcare in the world (Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, etc.)

Canada has no equivalent - the small Cleveland Clinic presence in Canada hasn't bothered trying to open a hospital because it would basically be impossible, unlike in the UK where private hospitals still exist.

The healthcare professionals in Canada are very well-trained, but there are too few of them and they're smothered in useless bureaucracy.

cal5k··on FTC to crack down on companies taking advantage of gig workers
Healthcare is a provincial jurisdiction, but the federal government provides a lot of the funding and attaches strings - the chief one being participation in the "Canada Health Act" which mandates a ban on private pay for publicly-insured services.

It's a bad system and since that article was published public sentiment has been worsening: https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-canadian-...

Most people who have glowing things to say about it have had minimal interactions with the system. The overall data shows predictable results when government intervention completely skews market incentives: the patient experience blows, administration is bloated to hell, it lacks capacity, and it bleeds healthcare professionals across the border where pay and working conditions are generally better.

The fact that anyone defends the system as it's currently designed is honestly baffling to me. If you took another essential industry - food - and applied similar incentives (any food paid for by government can't be purchased privately, government sets the rates, etc.) most people would correctly predict it would be disastrous.

cal5k··on FTC to crack down on companies taking advantage of gig workers
A lot of Americans seem to not understand what exactly this would entail. Like, the details really matter.

Would it be federal, or state-wide? How would it be funded? Would it be public "option", or would private pay be banned like in Canada? How would compensation rates be updated, and how often? Ask any hospital administrator what they think of Medicare/Medicaid rates, and they'll probably answer that they're set too low and that they lose money on Medicare/Medicaid patients.

The details on "universal healthcare" can range from heavily-regulated private insurance - Germany for example - to outright bans on private pay for items insured by the government (Canada). A lot of Americans seem to want some sort of federal system that provides insurance for everything, which seems like the best way to get the most expensive, least capable system imaginable. Imagine having yet another insanely expensive, totally underfunded entitlement program that politicians can continuously pad with new promises every 2-4 years when they need to get re-elected.

The Canadian experience (source: Canadian currently living in the US) is one you do not want to replicate, so be wary - Canadians have little confidence in their system at this point, even though it's quite expensive relative to European peers - and we have shockingly low numbers of imaging machines, hospital beds, urgent care clinics, etc. per capita, all well having administrative bloat that makes university administration look positively lean by comparison.

People love to fret about this politician or that politician, but the reality is that Canada got the incentives totally wrong because they sounded nice. No out-of-pocket expenses? No evil private medicine? No profit from healthcare!

As it turns out, central planning fails in healthcare just like it fails everywhere else. So "ensuring everyone has access to reasonably good healthcare" is an excellent goal, but "giving any level of government a monopoly on healthcare insurance" will be the death knell of the generally excellent healthcare Americans have access to if you have insurance.

cal5k··on NASA can now reliably produce a tree’s worth of oxygen on Mars
Hey now, don't be ridiculous...

...it's a rate, it would be bananas/hr.

cal5k··on Will California Eliminate Anonymous Web Browsing? (Comments on CA AB 2273)
Not that it was "dissent", per se, but The Federalist Papers were published under the pseudonym "Publius", and I'd say there has been a long tradition of anonymous or pseudonymous dissent.
cal5k··on GM makes $1,500 subscription mandatory on GMC, Buick, Cadillac Models
> Consumers only have so much energy for backlash, and your theoretical system requires everyone to have an encyclopedic memory of all the shitty things that every company does and weigh all of that in their minds when making consumer choices.

Hey, uh, there's this thing called Google - most people start there when they're making a big-ticket purchase like a car. Or you could pay for Consumer Reports to get expert-level analysis. Or you can just ask people on the relevant subreddit.

Consumers have access to more information to inform buying decisions than at any point in history. So unless General Motors is the only car manufacturer in the world, people can weigh the pros and cons and make their own decisions. More intervention from government is totally unnecessary and likely even harmful in the form of generally higher prices.

cal5k··on GM makes $1,500 subscription mandatory on GMC, Buick, Cadillac Models
Is the cost of living in your country, on average, higher or lower than in the United States?

As far as I can tell there are a vanishingly small number of problems where "new laws" are the optimal answer. Increased regulatory oversight generally leads to ossified markets with higher costs. Many of the most reviled monopolies throughout American history got there in no small measure because of government protection in the form of "regulation".

In this case, there are multiple car manufacturers available to Americans from around the world - if this makes GM vehicles more expensive or causes a consumer backlash that damages sales, GM will change their behaviour. That seems like a more responsive mechanism than piling on new regulation to dictate which types of fees are okay and which aren't.

cal5k··on Senate passes bipartisan bill to subsidize U.S.-made semiconductor chips
> essentially making it a constitutional issue due to the 2nd amendment.

Yes, because that's how the American constitution works. If you think something else should have similar protections - or if you don't like the second amendment and think it should be repealed - lobby for a new amendment.

Until then, it's the highest law in the land and is on equal footing with any constitutional protection, regardless of your personal policy preferences.

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