caseysoftware

Based on numerous studies, we already know it's not 1:1 so why bother starting with a default assumption that we know is wrong?

Do you have an alternative analysis? I'd love to check it out.

What is the difference in taxes paid for an equivalent amount of damage?

I understand the point you're trying to make - and you may be right - but you're leaving out the math to demonstrate it.

Possible. How far off is it?

Registration fees are likely the same or close but when you factor in gas taxes (the original comparison here), the Ford is definitely paying more both based on fuel type and mpg.

Is there another model you'd recommend to estimate/compare road wear and tear?

As I've cited elsewhere on this thread:

> With that information, the British newspaper calculated that BEVs [battery electric vehicles] could expose roads to 2.24 times more damage than gas cars.

Ref: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bevs-could-also-damage-ro...

If that's true, then 12-15k miles in an EV would be equivalent to 27-33k miles in a gas car in the externalities of road wear & tear.. so "taxes equivalent to 35k miles" is at most 25% higher in a "damage per mile equivalent" but could be as little as 6% using the averages.

If your actual mileage is over 15625/year, then you're paying less than the equivalent.

What's your annual mileage?

> It's a shame politicians can't be kept accountable tens of years from now. It would be great that if in 25 years it turns out global warming does indeed cause huge problems for humans, we could sue the politicians that took irresponsible risks with the environment. Now they can just focus on short term gains, and ignore all the long term side effects.

This is a super interesting perspective.. but instead of only looking to the future, could we apply this to the past?

aka Were there predictions about global warming in 2015, 2000, or earlier that drove policy that ended up being incorrect?

> With that information, the British newspaper calculated that BEVs [battery electric vehicles] could expose roads to 2.24 times more damage than gas cars.

If that's true, then 12-15k miles in an EV would be equivalent to 27-33k miles in a gas car.. so "taxes equivalent to 35k miles" isn't far off.

Ref: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bevs-could-also-damage-ro...

> With that information, the British newspaper calculated that BEVs [battery electric vehicles] could expose roads to 2.24 times more damage than gas cars.

If that's true, then 12-15k miles in an EV would be equivalent to 27-33k miles in a gas car.. so "taxes equivalent to 35k miles" isn't far off.

Ref: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bevs-could-also-damage-ro...

> On June 25, 1971, one Robert Hardy appeared at the FBI office in Camden, New Jersey and told agents of a plan by several of his friends to raid the draft board in that city, remove the files, and destroy them. Hardy was one of the gang, but changed his mind. He was immediately hired as an informer and told to return to the gang and report on their plans, which he did. On August 22, the FBI was waiting when the group struck, and twenty-eight were arrested. The trial began on February 5, 1973. Hoover died in May 1972, but his ghost must have suffered a shock as Hardy changed his mind again and became a witness for the defense. He told the truth, namely that the FBI had used him as a provocateur, and that the burglary could not have taken place without him and the burglary tools that the FBI had supplied.

What are the odds the FBI has done this more recently than 1971?

The EV tax applies to people who a) casue a disproportionate amount of wear & tear on the roads vs ICE vehicles and b) are generally higher income in the state.

When you look at taxation from a "charge the people who use it" or the "the rich should pay more" perspective, this appears to address both.

Is the problem simply that you want to pay less taxes?

^ There's a deep lesson in this comment.

> The budget is voted on by Congress literally every single year.

A formal budget hasn't been voted on and passed by Congress in decades.

You're likely thinking of "continuing resolutions" and omnibus bills, neither of which are "budgets" by Congress's own defintions but function similarly:

The first - a continuing resolution - just continues spending as is, no chance to change or cut.

The second - an omnibus bill - is a big conglomoration of requests and projects with minimal chances to change things.

You are 100% correct on the lack of political will to be able to change things. Frankly, I believe that a) too many people have their hands in the pot or b) they fundraise off the real/perceived problems, so the motivation to fix anything is minimal.

Ref: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/01/congress-...

^ This.

They're not after money. They're motivated by prestige which CAN be money (ew, tacky) but is actually measured by access to key figures, your name being in the right places with the right people, and the cocktail party circuit.

My wife was a reporter in DC and she was at the White House Correspondents Dinner and everything. Living in those circles is surreal. The namedropping is a whole other level. When I realized I was doing it too (with some legit impressive names at the time), I gtfo. I'd rather be evaluated by what I've done or can do vs who I know or knows me.

Gell Mann Amnesia ftw

My wife was a reporter with a top tier news agency in DC and I was shocked how they divvied up topics.

At best, it was "you're good with computers, go report on this hearing on cybersecurity" but more commonly, it was "who has this morning open? You do? Great. Go cover this 9am on the Israel-Palestine negotiations and what the implications are. We'll do a segment in the 11am hour."

For people curious on this one, google "replication crisis" and how it's been covered and described for the last 20 years.

The results are damning.

I've "collected" 500+ Kindle titles over the years and stopped buying from them completely when they blocked downloads earlier this year. When they enable these downloads, I'm going to export the ones I didn't get last time and continue NOT buying from them.

Fool me once..

> Bottom line is that the ways we measure economic output are deeply flawed.

Yes, 100% agreed.

> And the costs go down once it's bootstrapped long enough to obtain the long-term economic benefits that grow the economy (which will take a while to materialize).

That's a major claim. Which places under UBI (or in one of the experiments) has that manifested?

> At some point it struck me that this is all labour, but there was no money exchanged for the services rendered and certainly no taxes collected. Even worse - without this our neighbours would have to take an inordinate amount of time off, as getting a babysitter was too expensive.

How is this bad?

Both your and their family benefited directly in terms of trading responsibilities and indirectly in building relationships between daughters and neighbors.

Is your concern that neither of you paid taxes?

Annie Duke has a great book "Thinking in Bets" where she talks about being a professional poker player.

One of the things she hammers on is that just knowing how much/often you win isn't the important part because you can win despite making dumb choices and lose despite making great choices.

The key thing is being able to make the best decision based on the limited information you have, take the consequences (good or bad), and then reset and do it again. This is relevant in poker, investment, or even our careers and a great ideal to reach for.

I included a small blurb on my 2021 reading list: https://caseysoftware.com/blog/my-reading-list-2021

Yes, I've opted out of it every time so far this year (40+ flights) BUT that only covers the security checkpoint.

Delta also uses it at boarding time and who knows who does what via cameras in the airport as a whole.

The TSA uses facial recognition right now at most US airports. While they claim to not store the pictures, they've "accidentally" stored data many other times they promised not to so consider me skeptical.

HATEOAS never gets the love it deserves until you call it something else..

Probably because it sounds like the most poorly named breakfast cereal ever.

I love that the Wikipedia article on Gell-Mann amnesia was edited to an inaccurate quote.

Now flip to another Wikipedia article and..

> One of the reasons we know this story is bogus is because of the New York Times story which cites anonymous officials, “speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation”.

Yes, we should be skeptical of anything that is entirely sources from anonymous sources.. even if they align with what we want to believe.

And further, I'd love to see reporters start burning sources that lie to them. After all, the source is risking/destroying the reporter's credibility along the way. Unfortunately, we'll never see that as it's all an access game.

Thanks, I'll check out Rossman's video

Seems like a positive development from an enviromental point of view.. less low quality crap from Shein and Temu means less energy shipping it and less garbage later. Win win.

Yes, 100% agreed.

I launched and worked on OAuth 2.0 at Okta for ~5 years and spent most of my time showing people how to do it well and (gently) finding the holes and mistakes in their implementations. Sure, we were selling "OAuth as a Service" but most had introduced usability problems (at minimum) and gaping security vulns (at worst).

For a deep dive, check out Aaron Parecki's book: https://oauth2simplified.com/ - he's deeply involved in the (coming) OAuth 2.1

When I led re-implementation at pangea.cloud over the last couple years, we dropped most of the capabilies deprecated in 2.1 (resource owner password, implicit) and went straight to Auth Code with PKCE to make it a bit more manageable.

I walk through that progression/simplication here: https://speakerdeck.com/caseysoftware/the-many-layers-of-oau...

I think the strongest counter-signal that there's a "secret cure for cancer" is that rich, powerful people still get it (in various forms), go through debilitating treatment, and often still die.

Unless, of course, they're faking their deaths and transplanting their consciounesses into younger, healthy bodies. Then I got nothing.