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causalmodels

599 karma · joined October 20, 2018

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causalmodels··on Most Canadians believe Facebook harms their mental health
Self reporting is a notoriously bad measure. It would be nice if we had actual, measurable data to go on.
causalmodels··on Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'
I did read the article. Specifically, I read the second to last paragraph which states,

> Although a majority of the state’s voters approved an energy transition ballot question last year, large-scale projects like Battle Born Solar have drawn backlash from conservationists, endangered species advocates and local businesses that cater to tourists.

But you don't need to take anyone's word for it. Here is a local group very proud to assist Save our Mesa to kill the project [5][6][7].

If you would like to read more about how environmental and conservation groups sometimes oppose renewable energy projects, you can do so [1][2][3][4].

[1] http://archive.today/2021.06.15-141516/https://www.wsj.com/a...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-solar-wars/special-report...

[3] https://www.nevadacurrent.com/2021/06/16/true-impact-of-high...

[4] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-29/san-franc...

[5] https://twitter.com/BasinRange/status/1418497834949636098?s=...

[6] https://twitter.com/BasinRange/status/1323327146585022465?s=...

[7] https://twitter.com/BasinRange/status/1418665885263228928?s=...

edit: spacing

causalmodels··on Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity'
New York just decommissioned the Indian point nuclear plant [1] due to some shady politics. The largest planned solar installation in the US was defeated by environmental groups because it would be an eyesore [2].

At some point we’re going to have to grapple with the fact many “concerned” groups don’t actually care about climate change. Instead they use it as a stalking horse for other political projects.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47776

[2] https://apnews.com/article/technology-government-and-politic...

causalmodels··on Bezos donates $100M each to CNN contributor Van Jones and chef Jose Andres
I think wealth actually is being redistributed, but not in the sort of nefarious way that some people are claiming.

Last year incomes went up for the lowest earners. When less wealthy people get more money they tend to buy material, mass market goods. Large corporations tend to be the main suppliers of those goods. Thus, increasing buying power at the lower end of the income distribution results in companies earning more money.

causalmodels··on The digital currencies that matter
No, governments are constrained by real resources. Deficits probably don’t matter as much as people thought they did, but that doesn’t mean deficit spendings can be unlimited. Plus not all spending is equal. Deficit funding of things like actual (physical) infrastructure doesn’t have the same issues as social programs. Like do we really think Western European countries have broad tax bases because they like it?

Using taxes as a means of controlling inflation (raising them when inflation rises) may be true in theory but it is of zero practical importance. Raising taxes during inflationary periods, compounding the loss spending power, is a fantastic way for a politician to lose their job.

causalmodels··on Why A.I. Moonshots Miss
I'm not OP but I also do research in ML. My research focus is identifying and preventing critical system failure so people don't die. My of my time is spent developing new techniques and then testing them against data we collect from the field.
causalmodels··on Time to regulate AI that interprets human emotions?
> human brains weren't engineered by humans

If this was true, the phenomena of feral children would not exist [1]. Human brains are socially engineered by an array of informal (family, friends, social context) and formal (schooling, governments) institutions.

[1] https://zenodo.org/record/901393

causalmodels··on Time to regulate AI that interprets human emotions?
I think this viewpoint is limited. Sometimes reading peoples' emotions can be an extremely good thing.

I am aware of a healthcare company which currently has a model in production which alerts healthcare providers if a person displays suicidal intent. They have several confirmed instances deaths being prevented because of the interventions taken due to alerts from their model. While I don't think ML should be used to manipulate people's emotional states, I think this is a case where having a model that can read people's emotions is a good thing.

causalmodels··on Time to regulate AI that interprets human emotions?
I would like to push back against this a bit. You, along with most people in this thread, probably suffer from availability bias. People only interact with AI/ML systems when they are surfaced to them, and currently the most popular channel to surface ML is ads. Of course I have my own biases, but I think is an important critique. As Sinclair said, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

> It's not profitable to use AI for wholesome and healthy things for people, so nobody does

The purpose of the ML systems I build is to detect when things go wrong in order to keep people safe. These systems are both important and extremely valuable. They just aren't quite as sexy as the latest computer vision or large language models. But that's ok. Normal people only become aware of such systems when things go horribly wrong. It's sort of like plumbing in that regard.

causalmodels··on Robots.txt for the NYT has a specific exclusion for an 1996 news article
I am not a lawyer but I am fairly certain that New York State automatically seals criminal cases which are dismissed due to a positive finding for the defendant.

Source: https://www.nycourts.gov/courthelp/criminal/sealedGoodResult...

edit: a word

causalmodels··on Why Microsoft Wants Discord
Example #1: Teams is currently eating Slack.
causalmodels··on An Introduction to Hierarchical Modeling
Probabilistic machine learning is still machine learning. If you're referring to one of the popular tensor frameworks, pretty much all of them have probabilistic features or add-ons [1][2][3]. There are also frameworks developed specifically for this kind of work [4][5].

This [6] is a more in depth look at hierarchical / multi-level modeling. The prediction section [7] specifically goes over cross validation and inference.

[1] https://www.tensorflow.org/probability/examples/Multilevel_M... [2] https://pyro.ai/examples/forecasting_iii.html [3] http://edwardlib.org/ [4] https://mc-stan.org/ [5] https://docs.pymc.io/ [6] https://docs.pymc.io/notebooks/multilevel_modeling.html [7] https://docs.pymc.io/notebooks/multilevel_modeling.html#Pred...

causalmodels··on Alamo Drafthouse Files for Bankruptcy
I think your comparison misses the fact that COVID measures are largely decentralized because they require the agreement and participation of everyday people to be effective whereas the PATRIOT act centralized authority and control. As a result, the COVID measures basically lack enforcement mechanisms that could continue to exists after the pandemic ends.
causalmodels··on Ask HN: Are you on a technical specialist career path, what does it look like?
I would recommend you check out StaffEng [1]. It was linked here a week or two ago and I've found it quite helpful as I evaluate which path in the Y I want to take

[1] https://staffeng.com/

causalmodels··on Most of the time, you don’t really need another MOOC
You're not screwed. If you know any working data scientists // MLEs I would really recommend you get feedback from them on your projects. Ask them to do some mock interviews. Way too often I see bootcamp candidates who do well on technical screens but fall apart during in person interviews because they just did what the instructor told them (use docker, put it on github) rather than understanding why people want to see those things.
causalmodels··on Predicting Hard Drive Failure with Machine Learning
You should check out this time-to-event neural network [1].

[1] https://github.com/ragulpr/wtte-rnn

causalmodels··on Heavy social media use associated with lower mental health in adolescents
This comes shockingly close to my experience growing up playing WoW.
causalmodels··on Heavy social media use associated with lower mental health in adolescents
Do you think the online queer community is better or worse after Tumblr's self destruction?
causalmodels··on Predicting Hard Drive Failure with Machine Learning
This is not the correct modeling approach. All hard drives will fail given enough time, so labeling the failed hard drives as the positive class will bias your results.

Stuff like this really should be handled using survival analysis.

causalmodels··on Trader Joe's, Dollar General And Others Are Paying Workers To Get Vaccines
My roommate works for a hospital in non-clinical setting and she is required to get the flu shot in order to hinder transmission.
causalmodels··on Ajit Pai Is Officially Gone
I'm interested to see what Dish Network's (I think this is the right company) next move is. They are sitting on a ton of spectrum and now have a legal level to use their competitors' infrastructure to slingshot themselves into being competitive.
causalmodels··on Kids find a security flaw in Linux Mint by mashing keys
The first computer I ever bricked was a my father's work laptop running Windows 95. I was a toddler and wanted to press the buttons. Good to see the kids are still at it!
causalmodels··on Woman may have tried to sell Pelosi computer device to Russians, FBI says
Furthermore the belief that I, a smart and well informed person, am immune to manipulation is a vulnerability those seeking to manipulate you can exploit.
causalmodels··on Julia adoption keeps climbing
This is perfect, thank you so much!

I'm a bit surprised julialang.org only links to a the oreilly store page. Seems like you would want to call attention to a resource like this.

causalmodels··on Julia adoption keeps climbing
Can anyone recommend some good resources to learn Julia? I am hoping there is something akin to the Rust Book [1] since watching youtube videos is too slow and the exercism option listed on the website is too cumbersome.

[1] https://doc.rust-lang.org/book/

causalmodels··on Technosolutionism Isn’t the Fix
My issue with the article that o treat technosolutionism as something imposed on society by engineers misses the point entirely. Technosolutionism is a response to the complete failure of our deliberative democratic institutions to deliver actual solutions to our problems. It is not reasonable to ask people to trust their institutions when they have frequently and completely failed the people they were created to serve. If we want people to trust deliberative democratic processes, and I think we should, then we need to ensure those bodies are actually capable of functioning.
causalmodels··on Artificial Intelligence – Insanely Complicated, Hopelessly Inadequate
>This to me indicates that DNA has hardcoded "instructions" on how to configure a mind to be able to process tokenized information from the start.

>It is entirely possible that every section of the mind is just a huge freeform fpga that is initialized by DNA, but I think it is more hardwired than that.

I agree that it is more hardwired than that. We have too much wetware devoted to various tasks, the most notable of which is visual processing, for it to just be completely freeform. Although it's pretty interesting just how close the wetware comes to resembling an FPGA. People who are blind from birth don't just let all that processing power to go waste [1].

> My thought on it is that there are many subconscious thought streams that we are normally unaware of. People who become aware of them are thought to be crazy, but really I think the normal blocks from their conscious reasoning are just weak.

I think your view is supported by our current understanding of the evidence [2]. It's interesting to think what other processes might be running silently in our subconscious.

> I agree also that some people don't have the same "internal dialogue" and the stream of tokens are not equal to words like we communicate with others. I don't think that invalidates that there is some sort of token stream though.

I didn't mean to imply the token stream idea itself was bad, just that it being in the form of language doesn't hold up. I agree with you that there is some sort of token stream going on.

> The question I've always had is "how much of consciousness shuts down when you sleep" and/or "does staying awake longer mean your conscious thought process gains more access to the rest of your mind". My speculation is that the latter is true, because if you stay awake too long you will appear to be "crazy".

I'm not sure this is a question of gaining access to more of one's mind rather than it is an abstraction beginning to leak. When functioning properly all this information should returned in process when the brain scans its state. But when we lack sleep the summarization process might brake down. If the brain operates in a sleep deprived state for long enough connections may begin to form where they shouldn't introducing bugs in the brain's ability to perform state summary. There is some interesting research into how chronic lack of sleep may contribute to alzheimer's [3]. This research is by no means conclusive and I am not anywhere close to being a neuroscientist, but its interesting nonetheless.

[1] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/how-does-human-ech... [2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4059570/ [3] https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/sleep-d...

causalmodels··on Parler's home page is back online, but app still not in stores
Can a neutral platform with algorithmic feeds exist? Self selection + optimization will result in feeds reflective of the community rather than some neutral standard.
causalmodels··on Artificial Intelligence – Insanely Complicated, Hopelessly Inadequate
> It is painfully obvious that humans have an internal dialog

This is the most common way for humans to experience thought but it is by no means necessary. [1] Weirder still, we know that only half of a brain is needed to operate a human body + consciousness since people with hemispherectomies exist and basically the same as before their operations.

I think you could roughly characterize capsule networks [2] as approaching something like the communication between sub networks you described.

Honestly I don't think you're wrong wrt token passing, but I think it probably looks like those tokens are actually compressions of sub network data rather than expressions themselves.

[1] https://www.dazeddigital.com/science-tech/article/44494/1/li...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capsule_neural_network

causalmodels··on Machine Learning: The Great Stagnation
Never said you need an exotic model to build a product nor that you couldn't do exotic things in fast.ai. Fast.ai is just a leaky abstraction.
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