cuchoi

What made you 99.99% before reading this? I have seen plenty of experts saying that they don't know how long immunity will last.

Anecdotal data: my wife and I got COVID twice 9 months apart last year. The second time my wife ended up in the hospital.

My wife and I got COVID twice 9 months apart last year. The second time my wife ended up in the hospital.

We both got vaccinated as soon as we could.

Any interest in expanding to the solar market in Chile?

This is the biggest pain I have in Twitter. I use Twitter mostly for Statistics/Bayesian methods (in English) and Chilean politics (in Spanish). I wished people could chose which topic to follow — I don't want to SPAM people with irrelevant content.

But weren't circles selected by the poster? In this case the "follower" want to filter

What would be the minimum viable hardware to give someone?

> Corporate taxes also create huge incentive to offshore jobs to tax havens

That's why Yellen is proposing a global minimum corporate tax.

Sadly still not available, do you know of any fully functional alternatives? Even if more expensive. Just surprised no one has done a Transferwise / traditional bank alternative yet considering it is one of the main publicized advantages of Bitcoin.

Strike is promising a lot (which is exciting!) but don't have a fully functional product yet.

Does it make sense to use BTC (or another crypto) to wire money internationally? I assume that there are fees for transforming USD to BTC and BTC to local currency, but are those higher than Transferwise or doing a traditional bank wire transfer? Is there a service that wires money and uses crypto as a backend?

Bitcoin uses the same amount of energy as Argentina. I think is fair to raise the issue.

So cool, this idea makes a lot of sense to me. I sold a data viz article to a newspaper and was surprised to learn that the biggest value we provided was compiling the (publicly available) data.

Looker is basically a SQL generator

In the equilibrium, this would probably lower rents and increase house prices?

This comment seems like a reasonable hypothesis: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25184877

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing

The 70% is the combined data, so probably the most reliable estimate. For two high doses, they got 62% effectiveness and for one low and one high dose they got 90%. They don't know why the latter was more effective.

70% is still a great effectiveness rate, specially for a cheaper and easier to distribute vaccine.

Diving into the pool (a lot of water, a bit of bleach) is very different to swimming in bleach.

What makes you think that the implementation of dicts is a low hanging fruit? Only asking because there has been a lot of work to make them faster: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npw4s1QTmPg

There are some bindings that are the same as vim (gg, G, /, i, v, etc.). But overall I wouldn't say it helps you learn vim.

Not being a pure monopoly doesn't prove that Apple doesn't have market power. Moreover I don't think people are saying that Apple has a monopoly of smartphones.

The argument is that Apple is using their market power to set prices that seems well above the marginal cost. And they also have created policies that prevent competition in their store. Imagine Windows not allowing any apps unless they give them a 30% cut.

I think the assumption that tricks most people is that the host will never eliminate the door with the prize. Since this makes sense for a real TV show (it would kind of crappy from the host to eliminate the door with the prize) sometimes it goes unmentioned.

But, even if you highlight the assumption, for most people it is not straightforward how to use this information.

Is it considered piracy to distribute a free trial?

Which courses do you recommend?

I meant demeaning the independent variables. My understanding is that the beta_0 will have the meaning the curiousgal attach it only if you demean your independent variables.

The threshold would be beta_0 on every case or only when you have subtracted the mean from your data?

> I doubt anyone would willingly buy a car when they knew upfront that it was only able to drive to xyz.

Because there is competition. If there was one or two car manufacturers following similar practices you have no alternative.

Some people say "if don't like it build your own phone". Well, that's like asking a bar to be a car manufacturer to be able to sell food and drinks.

The risks that he mentions are not far fetched, but are probably not the biggest risks the Fed should worry about. It does make me doubt his predictions that in the 2009 financial crisis he also predicted that inflation would pick up, which didn't happen.

In both crisis he mentioned stagflation, which can happen when there is a supply shock (like oil prices increasing) and governments growing the money supply too quickly. Now we are suffering a supply shock but also a big demand shock (just look at oil prices...) which makes the situation different. This doesn't mean that inflation won't increase once the first stage of the crisis is over (specially in food, which will impact developing countries the most), but I think it is far from the most important thing to worry about right now.

I agree. Synthetic controls can be powerful but they are not magic wand for causal analysis.

The fit on the left seems too good to be true. It could be that it using the outcome (Tesla's stock price) as part of the calibration, which biases your synthetic control. In ML speak it is an overfitted model. http://www.oekonometrie.uni-saarland.de/papers/SCM_Predictor....

Also, in the package documention it says "The model also assumes that the relationship between covariates and treated time series, as established during the pre-period, remains stable throughout the post-period". In this case the covariate is the S&P500, so clearly the relationship didn't stay stable. As you mention, there was a dip in every tech company.

This doesn't mean that Musk's tweet didn't affect the price, but this is no proof.

Caveat from the paper:

"This study had several limitations. First, our sampling strategy selected for members of Santa Clara County with access to Facebook and a car to attend drive-through testing sites. This resulted in an over-representation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64, and an under-representation of Hispanic and Asian populations, relative to our community. Those imbalances were partly addressed by weighting our sample population by zip code, race, and sex to match the county. We did not account for age imbalance in our sample, and could not ascertain representativeness of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in homeless populations. Other biases, such as bias favoring individuals in good health capable of attending our testing sites, or bias favoring those with prior COVID-like illnesses seeking antibody confirmation are also possible. The overall effect of such biases is hard to ascertain."

Aren't these examples of unit tests?