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cwp

4,462 karma · joined February 20, 2007

ML Engineering at https://vannevarlabs.com/
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cwp··on Lab-made dairy products are now a reality
Well, sure, all good tastes come from animals or plants because that's the only stuff we can eat. It doesn't mean that no other good tastes are possible.
cwp··on Lab-made dairy products are now a reality
Yeah, that is a completely well-founded fear and undoubtedly true in the short term. Living on nothing but meal squares or Soylent would be a bad idea. But I don't imagine anyone would have to do that. Nor do I imagine that synthetic food would have to be nutritionally complete; it'd just be designed with a specific purpose rather than being the byproduct of some organism's survival strategy.
cwp··on Lab-made dairy products are now a reality
True. But we aren't infant cows. We have different and more varied needs. So I guess I'm wondering what milk would be like if we designed it for weaned humans, in various circumstances.
cwp··on Lab-made dairy products are now a reality
I noticed this with turkey bacon. It's a poor substitute for pig bacon, but it's pretty good as its own thing.
cwp··on Lab-made dairy products are now a reality
Sounds good - something very like animal proteins without raising entire animals to produce them.

Beyond that though, I'm really interested in foods that could be created that don't mimic existing foods derived from animals or plants. You could imagine a nutritionist defining requirements - combinations of proteins, fats and carbohydrates, various micronutrients. Now add the aesthetics of taste, texture, consistency etc. Some of these would be "ready to eat," either hot or cold, but others could be raw materials for traditional cooking: shred a block of this solid stuff, fry it in that liquid oily stuff, and drizzle some thick spicy stuff on it. Marketers to invent names, of course. Maybe we even get food tailored to us individually, based on specific nutritional needs, fitness goals, religious restrictions or palate.

This doesn't sound appetizing, so I think it would be a gradual process, where new products come out that aren't quite like natural foods, but are still acceptably tasty, and cheaper or more nutritious. Gradually we get things that are quite different. It would take a while, but I suspect in a few hundred years we'll have things that are unimaginable today but as accepted as cheese, beer or sausage. And with much, much lower impact on the biosphere.

cwp··on For programmers, remote working is becoming the norm
This is great, thanks.

I've only read a bit of it, but what leaps out at me is that it's clearly written prepandemic. It assumes its audience only knows in-person work, and remote work is this weird radical thing that only a few companies do. Understandable, as that was true 18 months ago, but wow have things changed!

Oddly, I bet it'll be hard or impossible for Zapier to write an updated edition, as they don't know what the pandemic has been like for the rest of us. Heck, I bet the experience of pandemic remote work varies widely.

cwp··on For programmers, remote working is becoming the norm
Once all the furor has subsided and the pandemic ebbs, I think it's safe to say that many companies will got back to in-person collaboration and others will remain remote. It's clear that remote work is feasible, but not everyone enjoys it.

Rather than argue the pros and cons, I'm more interested in seeing how distributed organizations will evolve. Slack and Zoom are getting the job done, but they are wearying. Organizations that aren't deliberate in designing their collaboration process will probably spin their wheels a lot.

Software development does have more focussed tools for collaboration, like GitHub, GitLab, Jira, Basecamp, Trello, StackOverflow, Figma and so on. So what are remote-first companies doing to improve productivity and minimize coordination overhead? Is it about finding the right modes of communication? Is it about distributing work differently? Is it building shared context to make communication more efficient?

I'm aware of (at least some of) the things that companies like GitLab and Automattic have written about their practices. Who else is thinking and writing about this?

cwp··on DevOps, SRE, and Platform Engineering
Yeah, pretty much. But don't despair, this is how the industry progresses.

First, elite practitioners identify flaws in the standard practices of some corner of the industry and figure out a way to ameliorate them. They give it a name so they can talk about it, write about it, organize conferences etc. They're mainly interested in disseminating this good idea.

The idea becomes popular, and a cottage industry springs up. Some of the original proponents become consultants, but there are others who were early adopters, and many more who are jumping on the trend. You also get an ecosystem of open source and commercial tools. This starts to warp the original ideas, as they stop being about purely about improving results and incorporate a bias for generating more consulting or tool revenue.

This drives wider adoption. Companies start looking for people with experience in the new thing, and people start putting it on their resume. It gets applied in situations it wasn't meant for, sometimes on purpose and sometimes by accident. You start to see "no true Scotsman" discussions where detractors claim they tried the thing and it didn't work and proponents claim they weren't doing it right. There's also cargo culting, where people who don't really understand the ideas try to implement the practices with varying degrees of success.

Eventually things get watered down to the point where the terminology starts to just mean "good" or "cool". The actual practitioners stop using it because it's no longer useful for communication and it falls out of favour.

But. All is not lost! The original ideas were good, and they've been widely disseminated. They get taught to young people joining the industry, and they start to be part of "how we do things." They don't need special names to distinguish them from "mainstream" practices because they are the mainstream. In fact, young people sneer at them because duh, without knowing what they were a reaction to.

You can see this with Agile, Lean and DevOps. On the business side, "disruption". The cycles are slower and maybe less intense in more CS and pure coding domains, but you find it there too with scripting languages, object oriented languages, TDD. Functional programming is leaving the consulting phase and seeing wider adoption.

This is probably not how we'd like to think things work. But they do work.

cwp··on DevOps, SRE, and Platform Engineering
The term "DevOps" was originally coined to mean organizing teams so that development and operations were merged. That is, development teams were responsible for writing, deploying and operating services. It was a reaction to the then-common system where development and ops were separate.

But it was quickly coopted to be "ops, but cooler" because these sysadmins write code too. And then even that definition started to get coopted by people using it for other things. These days it can mean anything. Frankly, I see it as a small red flag. Anyone who uses it is basically jumping on yesterday's trendy jargon, and that's not a good sign.

cwp··on Cal Newport on an industrial revolution for office work
I think most people that think they hate email just hate Outlook. Some MS product manager decided that it would force you to top post, and then endlessly growing but completely indecipherable quote vomit below the message became the norm.

Back in the day, email was great. A listserv targeted to a specific community of people that know their netiquette is the best way to collaborate.

cwp··on Over half of Covid hospitalisations tested positive after admission
Yeah, those are the right questions. The point of the article is that people who go to the hospital for non-Covid reasons - eg, broken leg, heart attack, cancer - and then test positive are being counted as "hospitalized with Covid" even though they don't have a severe case.

So the statistics are being skewed. We don't really know by how much, because the article doesn't say how many went to the hospital for Covid-related symptoms.

cwp··on Counterfactuals are not causality
The counterfactual is "if I had flipped the switch, the lights would be on." That is a situation with changed facts, and therefore counterfactual. The tricky bit is the causality. We have to construct an alternate history, with a counterfactual cause and a counterfactual result. And we can't actually know that. Maybe the bulb is burnt out. Maybe there's a power outage just now. Maybe we've blown a fuse. The causality is just conjecture.

Now consider the opposite. The lights are off because the bulb burnt out. That's a lot less ambiguous. If you want to doubt the causality you've got to get all mystical.

cwp··on Counterfactuals are not causality
Yeah, I was waiting for that too.

- A process wrote 125 GB of logs, why?

- It was compiled with VERBOSE=true, why?

- The build config was changed on 7/12/2021 by Steve, why?

- Issue #5988, need to collect data one why that process crashes so much.

cwp··on Counterfactuals are not causality
"I didn't turn them on" is a fact. It's the "because" that's not a fact. The whole point of the article is that you can't get causality from things that didn't happen. There are seven billion other people in the world who also didn't turn on the lights. What makes your inaction special?

In order to get the "because" we have to imagine another state of the world where you DID turn on the lights, and further speculate that this would have been effective to illuminate the room. That's counterfactual, because the fact is that it's dark in here.

cwp··on CudaText: Cross-platform code editor
That's open source for you. I once worked on a project that had RiscOS as a first-class platform, and I was pretty sure that the maintainer was the only user of RiscOS in the world.
cwp··on A 3°C world has no safe place
Tell that to the residents of Lytton.
cwp··on A 3°C world has no safe place
Perhaps. But I suspect the bigger issue is that even 5.4°F still doesn't sound like much. It's hard to communicate that the average temperature implies much higher highs and many "unusually hot" days.
cwp··on Why aren't there more programming-language startups?
Taking the question at face value, I think these are the issues:

  - the switching costs for programming languages are very high, even if you're switching to an established language
  - it's hard to evaluate a new programming language; you don't know if it's good until you've written something non-trivial
  - learning a new language takes a lot of effort, particularly for languages that aim to be better than existing languages; better implies different
  - given all of the above, early adopters will probably not use the language for their day job, they'll use it for hobby projects; hobbyists are price sensitive
I don't actually think having to compete with free is actually that much of an issue compared to the above. Even free languages that are genuinely improvements over more mainstream alternatives face multidecade slogs to create a small community and get some adoption.
cwp··on Barry Diller: The movie business as before is finished and will never come back
I hate this kind of article. It's an opinion from a knowledgeable person, but it offers no insight at all. The only difference between what Diller said and my uninformed curmudgeonly grumpy opinion is that he used to run a studio.
cwp··on Learning Squeak (2019)
Alas. Hard to believe it was all ten years ago now.
cwp··on Challenges in the diagnosis of magnesium status
I got that part. So?
cwp··on Challenges in the diagnosis of magnesium status
I don't get it. You're saying we shouldn't bother to improve things because they still won't be perfect?
cwp··on Challenges in the diagnosis of magnesium status
Yup, that's true. And the things we were focussing on are good. They're just not everything.
cwp··on Challenges in the diagnosis of magnesium status
I make that argument, but I would never say "It's all perfectly harmless." The point is that the technique used to produce an organism isn't its self harmful. The question is whether the organism is harmful. Resistance to disease is good. Lower nutrient density is bad. It really doesn't matter whether we got here by selective breeding or modifying genes directly.
cwp··on Facebook keeps recommending political groups
This reminds me of a recurring conversation I've had with relatives, in which I try to explain to them that Facebook isn't a person. It's not a media company with an editorial staff. It's not a company like anything we have seen before. It has billions of users. Trillions of posts, photos, videos and sundry other content. Thousands, possibly millions, of advertisers.

If a person breaks a promise to you, he's a lying liar who lies. If Facebook recommends a political group to "at least 3 people," that's not a broken promise. That's an amazingly effective tweak to the recommendation algorithm. The same goes for all sort of claims people make about Facebook:

  - You were paid in Rubles! (It's not like there was a salesman that should have been suspicious. Facebook gets paid in Rubles *all the time* because they have millions of Russian users and many, many Russian ad customers. No human looked at the ad before it went up.)

  - You're allowing people to post hateful things! (Again no human reads all the posts. There are people that review a tiny percentage that have been flagged for one reason or another, but they'd have to employ a sizable percentage of the world's population to review everything.)

  - You're censoring conservatives! (Same thing, nobody is checking the political affiliation of posters before allowing posts to go up.)
The fact is, this thing has never existed before, and basically no human inventions have reached this many people before, and it's frigging hard. Zuckerberg and the rest, are making it up as they go.

All that's not to say that Facebook is awesome and the criticism is unwarranted. I personally don't use Facebook anymore for all the usual reasons. We should absolutely be talking about the role of social media in society, and how it's really warped public discourse, polarized the polity etc. But "it's easy, if you would just do this one thing, everything would be peachy" is absolutely the wrong conclusion and people seem to insist on reaching it every damn time Facebook comes up.

cwp··on Rethinking Triplebyte
Oh HELL no.

Collective bargaining is inherently about eliminating competition between workers. That is, it creates a labour monopoly to balance out a labour monopsony. That might (might!) be a good thing for autoworkers. It would be an unmitigated disaster for software engineers, and the tech sector in general.

People who write code are unbelievably productive compared to just about any other job function, and software engineers (who we'll define as people who write code for tech companies) are even more so. Part of eliminating competition between workers is making sure that nobody works harder than anyone else. That would be devastating to the productivity of software engineers, which would make them less valuable to tech companies. That would lead to a decline in salaries, and general stagnation of tech.

Another aspect of preventing competition is seniority. One of the archetypes of the tech world is the wunderkind—the brilliant kid fresh out of school that rockets to the top. A union would tell that kid, "sorry, you'll have to pay your dues as a junior engineer for 5 more years, then you'll be eligible for promotion. In the meantime, we'll give that job to cwp, he's got the required seniority."

Just think how this would affect tech companies. Sorry, you can't pay more to attract the best. If you're really careful about interviewing, you might be able to find some people with both skill and seniority, but it'll be tough because smart, ambitious people have all gone to Wall St or whatever industry has the best opportunities.

cwp··on Cristiano Ronaldo snub wipes billions off Coca-Cola’s market value
If they did, it would be a massive improvement to public health, wouldn't it?
cwp··on FoundationDB: A distributed, unbundled, transactional key value store [pdf]
Good point. Still, if FDB was high-profile proprietary software during this time it might have inspired an open source clone. Spanner inspired Cockroach and Yugabyte, after all.
cwp··on FoundationDB: A distributed, unbundled, transactional key value store [pdf]
Sure quibble about the details. The point is, these are all attempts to make PG more scalable. Around the time these projects got started Foundation looked like abandonware. If it hadn't, it's possible that "how can we have really scalable SQL databases?" might have had Foundation as part of the answer.
cwp··on FoundationDB: A distributed, unbundled, transactional key value store [pdf]
Yeah, but there are quite a few efforts out there to extend PG into a distributed DB of one flavor or another. Some examples are YugabyteDB, CockroachDB, Aurora and Citus. It's a reasonable approach, but it's also reasonable to come at it from the other direction - build a SQL engine on top of a solid distributed key-value store. Contrafactuals are always dicey, but FDB vanishing behind the Apple wall of silence sure didn't help.
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