45 karma · joined April 6, 2026
You have this complex system that has reached some sort of relative equilibrium based on say a set S of ten sorts of tax rates, along with a set F of factors (size millions), with the government's tax revenue R being one of those outputs. Then some guy in the government called G signals to the government and public that he can increase R by X by fiddling with a member of S, or maybe adding a member to S (of size say ten).
Is G stupid, or does he just lean towards retaining the public's affection, his relatively low salary, potential under the table payments and whatever networking opportunities his job provides? I lean towards the latter.
People used to go to work by foot. The best runners would get to work first. Then the bicycle came along. The person who was the best runner before is now still getting to work first on the bicycle.
My questions are: Will we still have jobs if there’s a crash? How can we start researching what the optimal hedge is against such a crash?
The term ‘perfect information’ is a bit of a mirage, and has been shown to be impossible in physics (uncertainty principle).
What really matters is information advantage: Does your inexact expected value function consistently beat others’ calculations in the market. Here, the true value - value really is just a word and is dependent on people - is irrelevant.