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Actually I’m not alluding to anything specific. I just wondered whether the 17ness of wallpaper groups and fundamental particles was some sort of mapping from a related common object. Obviously a long shot as previously mentioned.

It's a reasonably sized prime number regardless of base.

There are also 17 wallpaper groups. That always seemed like a funny number. I know it's a long shot, but is there a relation?

Is claiming that the year when the orange man first came into office a mistake, or a hallucination? Does the answer change based on whether it came from a human or an LLM?

How about citing legal cases that don't exist? I would say this is maybe closer to hallucination if an LLM is doing it. Maybe less so if a human is and is not experience some mental instability. What creates that distinction?

LLMs are trained on a model of the world. We rely on them to produce output that correlates with our experience of the world. When we talk about truth, which is simply a word in language with various connotations, and which is a word that is very difficult to define objectively, we talk about what correlates (likeliness) with our shared experience of the world. LLMs have an internal model that is derived from experience, and so do humans.

Words are inexact abstractions, and meanings change over time. If they can't think, how can they even hallucinate? Remember the old definition of "computer", and how its usage shifted from humans to man-made machines. I just think that "mistake" is a better analogy than "hallucination": It gives a result that does not concur with our shared experience of reality, like shifting signs on a maths exam. The human shifting sign is most probably not hallucinating. The human is making a mistake.

Why are LLM mistakes said to be hallucinations and not simply mistakes?

What do you mean by universal truth in this context?

Two of many things to answer:

1. Why must an industry provide public good? How do you define public good? If it must, can your claim be proved objectively without relying on feels? All these articles decrying gambling, crypto and prediction markets are begging this one simple question.

2. Why must exchanges be split up? The whole trading industry is based on trading against each other for estimated personal gain. This is the definition of trading, whether cows, binary crypto options or bets on an orange man’s Xs. Exchanges’ trading against the client isn’t endemic only to crypto. Look at all the CFD and spread betting brokers. There are all sorts of techniques.

You are right.

You are not objectively wrong. You have simply defined an incoherent abstract system in language. The claim you have made simply does not compute in the system in question. Regardless, that claim is not a claim about the objective world, however that may be defined.

Agreed-upon, as in subjective.

2+2=4 is only a formal truth up to the axioms of arithmetic and how we denote numbers. The statement is not statement with regards to objective reality.

Know of any more?

Maybe it’s more about the journey and not the destination.

So what do you think the true reason is that the market is so backwardated? (another genuine question)

Oil prices are indeed determined by the expected future cost, including expected future reserves, and not only current reserves. Futures expiries extend quite far. Where does your short term reserves claim come from? Genuinely interested.

Regarding 118, this is about probability. Given we're at 96 and backwardated? What is the probability that we hit 150?

Options on crude oil futures settle in the underlying (futures), which settle in the underlying (oil) at expiry of the futures contract. Futures positions can be closed without giving or taking delivery.

You give some interesting ideas to think about, however if we predict everyone shuts up shop in the future, then I don’t see near price of oil going to 150.

Everyone’s talking about an oil price spike if stocks are depleted, but the heavy backwardation of crude oil futures tells a completely different story. Who is right? Are crude oil traders, who I’m sure know exactly how much remains in reserve, on Chinese fentanyl, or is something else going on?

There was a press release by Exxon a couple of days ago with claims of prices hitting 150.

People have been making similar claims for months, but it hasn’t happened. The forward curve has been backwardated for quite a while now.

Is it Exxon doing a please buy our oil while it’s high, or is something else going on? Pray tell.

Purpose and meaning are ultimately subjective.

This is very naive. Many people have incentives to manipulate the financial markets, also with real world consequences. Should we ban financial markets as a result?

Do you really think that there are no people, who have bet on the price of something in one direction or the other, who enact real world consequences on people or other entities in order to ensure their bet? This is par for the course.

Why must things have a purpose? If something has a purpose, can it be an objective purpose?

Previously everyone was running. Now everyone is on a bicycle. The power each person expends remains approximately the same. The people still running are left behind. The first person to get home after work from running is now the first person to get home after work from cycling.

The current price reflects the discounted pricing of future events, the effects of those events, and the probabilities of those events. When certain events occur, and other previously predicted and priced in events become impossible, the market necessarily adjusts.