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devonsolomon

356 karma · joined April 13, 2024

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devonsolomon··on Differences in cancer rates among adults born between 1920 and 1990
Exactly.

The argument also goes that some cancers may never become clinically relevant, or in the case of the sick, vulnerable or elderly other causes of death will get you before the cancer does - And so detection in these cases may cause “unnecessary” treatment, patient worry and burden on society.

devonsolomon··on Differences in cancer rates among adults born between 1920 and 1990
For those not keeping up, we now have commercialized blood-based screening tools designed for early detection of multiple cancers by analyzing cfDNA methylation patterns. They can identify over 50 types of cancer, have a specificity of 99.5% and can accurately predict the cancer’s origin.

The biggest push-back from the medical profession is diagnosing cancers that are not clinically relevant and treatable (eg. A cancer may be detected 15 years before clinically relevant in some cases to my understanding). There is also a cost benefit dynamic of increasing preventative screening, for example lowering the prescribed age for breast screening would save lives but may carry costs for nations or corporations that are unacceptable.

Detection is being solved in some incredible ways. To my understanding moonshot catch all treatments are mostly a pipe dream given the diversity of disease under the “cancer” umbrella, and lifestyle based prevention is proving a way bigger factor than historically acknowledged - an inconvenient challenge in addressing the issue societally.

It is an endlessly interesting field to keep a track of, and I believe more entrepreneurs should be working on prevention topics!

devonsolomon··on Memory for music doesn't diminish with age
An ex girlfriend’s grandfather had Lewis body dementia and was constantly telling her that he could hear perfectly and entirely songs from his childhood, songs he hadn’t heard in decades.

Amazing that they’re still in there somewhere.

devonsolomon··on Unconditional Cash Study: first findings available
Well that’s one less option for when the robots take over…
devonsolomon··on Do Skis Get Blunt?
Always good to see a ‘.co.za’ :)
devonsolomon··on One Million Checkboxes
Me: Design something simple. My UX designer:
devonsolomon··on Rabbit data breach: all r1 responses ever given can be downloaded
Move slower and break less things.
devonsolomon··on New AI algorithm flags deepfakes with 98% accuracy
Amazing that 2% of AI generated videos are undetectable by such a system.
devonsolomon··on 3 in 10 Companies Currently Have Fake Job Postings Listed
And this doesn’t even include founders on LinkedIn with “We’re Hiring” in their bio.
devonsolomon··on Gilead shot prevents all HIV cases in trial
I briefly did some work with an HIV research organization in South Africa.

One dynamic I was shocked to hear was the prevalence of marriages where one partner (always the husband in this context) is HIV positive and the other is secretly on prep. In this context infidelity may be a norm and traditional cultural and gender norms may look negatively or skeptically at anti-retrovirals.

While this isn’t the majority of the HIV experience in South Africa, it’s certainly a sizable group.

Further, adherence more generally is a massive problem. The cost of travel to a clinic in both rural and urban settings can be prohibitive for many and cause major adherence drop-off.

Drugs like this, if made affordable, will go a long way to immediately easing pressure on these groups - and that’s exciting.

devonsolomon··on Monumental snake engravings of the Orinoco River
Perhaps just using the same Wingdings font of 2000 years ago.
devonsolomon··on CEOs could easily be replaced with AI, experts argue
If they’re referring to general AI - which at this point is still sci-fi - then yes, a general intelligence can theoretically do any thinker or planners job. But given that we don’t have anything near general AI, this claim can’t be refuted and the article is pretty pointless.

If they’re speaking about LLM’s - well then this is just plain dumb.

devonsolomon··on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: "I discourage 1-on-1s"
(Via Paul Smith from Civitas)

In the recently released book Rassie: Stories of Life and Rugby by Rassie Erasmus (two time World Cup winning South African rugby coach), Rassie mentions that he doesn’t do one-on-ones. To quote from the book:

"Everything was done in front of everybody. I’ve never had a one-on-one with a player, except when he came to me with a deeply personal issue. I told them not to come to me individually with questions about why they were not in the team, or why they thought they deserved an opportunity…

Some of the newer players weren’t used to me not having one-on-one discussions. I told them I preferred to talk to everyone together so everyone understood what was going on, and no rumours started about what might have happened between me and a player behind closed doors."

Given how often sports team analogies are used in leadership speak, perhaps this fits.

devonsolomon··on Measure Schools on Student Growth
Organization would limit their growth and then artificially inflate it as they get closer to an exit event? Why does this sound familiar…
devonsolomon··on Revealed: Israeli spy chief 'threatened' ICC prosecutor over war crimes inquiry
Yes - but. Whataboutism is often raised to illuminate the claimant’s topic selection bias - which is entirely valid.

Often when someone’s arguments are valid and convincing, but their entire vocabulary seems confined to an issue, asking yourself a couple “whatabouts” may help you see biases inherent in the topic bias.

devonsolomon··on GPT-4o
Agreed. I’m excited about reaching a point where the experience is of being in a deep work ‘flow’ with an ultra intelligent colleague, instead of jumping out of context to instant message them.
devonsolomon··on Many FBI agents are struggling to make ends meet. Housing costs are to blame
In Ben Macintyre’s The Spy and The Traitor he goes into detail on Aldrich Ames, a double crossing CIA agent who sold out US soviet assets to the Soviets (which led to 10 being executed) in exchange for Soviet cash. I think Macintyre called it one of the largest betrayals in US history.

He did this because he was struggling with personal debt and his new wife had expensive taste.

Feels like there should be a lesson in there somewhere.

devonsolomon··on Employing Others Is Linked to Wealth and Wellbeing
Im not sure new entrepreneurs quite appreciate the gravity of having family livelihoods dependent on your decisions.

The toll is also much worse in developing nations where the demand in the job market is low. Business failure then could mean people being long-term or permanently out of work.

Entrepreneurship is a massive driver of employment in developed markets (especially VC backed). Ironically, entrepreneurs in developing markets may be dissuaded from employing so not to carry this risk.

devonsolomon··on Employing Others Is Linked to Wealth and Wellbeing
Tempting to deduce that employing people will make you happier and wealthier: it wont. It will just kill your business faster and reduce the chance you show up in a Gallup poll as a business owner at all.

People who have employees and haven’t yet gone out of business are likely to have a good product and business model. Having a good business model is likely to make you wealthier than not having yet found a good business model.

“We interviewed a 100 bananas and found that the ripe ones were yellow”

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