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dgudkov

6,504 karma · joined July 5, 2010

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dgudkov··on US housing price higher than housing bubble 2008
> I'm curious to see how long these gains can hold

The gains can hold long. The dollar may not.

dgudkov··on 2MW Electric Aircraft Engine
>TU-114 uses four engines (Kuznetsov NK-12) that are the most powerful turboprop engines ever in production (11000 kW at 2900 kg).

Interesting detail about the NK-12 (according to Wikipedia):

The design that eventually became the NK-12 turboprop was developed after World War II by a team of Soviet scientists and deported German engineers under Ferdinand Brandner, who had worked for Junkers previously; ... Thus, the NK-12 design evolved from late-war German turboprop studies.

dgudkov··on El Salvador’s new Bitcoin wallets could cost Western Union $400M a year
>because competition doesn't really exist.

It does exist, just hasn't reached some corners of the world. Neobanks are a great example. I had great experience with TransferWise (renamed recently to Wise). Transfers, checking accounts, wire transfers are several times less expensive than with traditional banks. Works like a charm.

dgudkov··on Notion Acquires Automate.io
Any ideas about possible deal size?
dgudkov··on Tech-savvy audiences block Google Analytics
It amazes me that over the last 10-20 years an astonishing amount of money and intellectual capital have been invested in adtech and crypto but nothing in micropayments. Ads are evil, but it will remain a moot point until we have working micropayments. We have (and will have) ads with all their downsides exactly because we don't have micropayments, because ads basically work as a substitute to micropayments.
dgudkov··on Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine
It would be great if the people who had covid and developed immunity will finally become recognized by governments on par with vaccinated. Currently, they virtually don't exist for governments and media in many countries who prefer to divide everybody into just two groups: vaccinated and anti-vaxxers. A third group does exist and deserves to be heard.
dgudkov··on Sailfish 4
A Russian state-owned telecom.
dgudkov··on Y Combinator’s European founder intake continues to grow
I don't think this is what people actually want, but it's definitely what people tolerate.
dgudkov··on Y Combinator’s European founder intake continues to grow
That's exactly my thoughts recently. As it appears, American venture capital simply can't build a big social media company that doesn't end up being a surveillance-driven, ad-ladden, privacy-hostile, user-despising, fake virtue-signalling behemoth.

So maybe it's time for Europe to shine.

dgudkov··on How I Experience Web Today
Probably, because several factors have conflated and reinforce each other:

1) Historically, everything on the web used to be "free" and this is still an implicit assumption for internet users.

2) Payments are not part of the HTTP protocol; micropayments never materialized

3) The web is too good for advertisers - targeting, reach, scalability are unmatched compared to off-line advertisement. This supports p.1 above and hinders p.2.

It's a vicious circle.

dgudkov··on How I Experience Web Today
Nothing on the internet is free and has never been. If it appears free that's because somebody pays for it with time, money, hardware, or lost opportunities.
dgudkov··on New phone can make calls and send texts, but it cannot access social media
I don't like how all modern phones are designed for content consumption. If you try googling "android phone with a small screen", you will get articles about phones with a 5-6" screen, because this is what is considered a "small screen" nowadays.

I would easily pay $300-400 for a de-Googled Android phone with 3-3.5" screen and no bloatware. It should be just right to use apps like Uber, Telegram, or maps, but the small screen would discourage mindless media consumption.

And it would fit in pocket much better.

dgudkov··on Anti-Lukashenka hackers seize senior Belarusian officials' personal data
Mixed feelings about it. One one hand, this is brilliant, because the worst nightmare for oppressive government officials is to bring to light all their criminal activities and personal details.

On the other hand, it's a glimpse into the future and it's scary. Apparently, the Belarus government collected a centralized database of all citizens' communications. And it was hacked and leaked. I think it's reasonable to assume that any centralized database of extreme value will be hacked and leaked one day, and it's just a matter of time. Any backdoor demanded by government will at some point be exploited by a rogue actor.

dgudkov··on Driving 1725km in an electric car in 2 days
TL;DR

Total trip time: 17h42m.

Driving time: 11h18m (64% of the total trip time).

Charging time: 6h24m (36% of the total trip time).

dgudkov··on My small revenge on Apple
Why the drama? Why not use a web app instead of a native app?
dgudkov··on Google Tensor SoC debuts on the new Pixel 6 this fall
If that extra millimeter went to extra battery capacity, it would give an extra day of life to the phone. I would appreciate it more than just a flush back.
dgudkov··on Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]
It wasn't like that. The inflated real estate market is a result of several factors that emerged in the last 15-20 years and combine and reinforce each other:

- A decade of near-zero interest rates

- A lack of investment opportunities: real estate usually has a below average ROI but there is nothing else to invest in nowadays (look at startup valuations to understand how desperate investors have become)

- Too much money printed worldwide (again, look at startup valuations)

- The desire to park money earned (or stolen) in developing countries in a Western country that hypocritically turns a blind eye on money origin because banks, construction industry, and legislators (who own real estate en masse) all are interested in heating up the market as much as possible (looking at you, Canada)

What makes it worse, is that all stakeholders are now locked up in this situation. Increasing interest rates is not possible because it will bankrupt millions of families with mortgage. Western countries are in the late industrial cycle, so creating new investment opportunities is problematic until a new industrial cycle begins. In this situation central banks have no choice but to print money and lie about inflation as long as possible because there is no way this whole situation can be resolved without money losing value.

dgudkov··on No-code startup Bubble raises $100M
I design and develop a no-code tool [1] for the last 7 years. I see many software developers on HN struggle to understand the point of no-code. I'll try to explain.

First of all, no-code tools are not intended for developers. Although, developers can and do benefit from them by using them occasionally for prototyping and mundane automations. The main beneficiaries of no-code tools are "citizen developers" - people who get paid for something else than software development (e.g. marketing analysts, accountants, lawyers, etc) but who need/want to automate things to be more productive in their main work. For them, no-code is a godsend. It's like not having hands and asking someone else to do something for your with their hands all your life, and then suddenly getting your own pair of hands. No-code is a super-power to them because now they can do things they need but couldn't do earlier. For instance, querying databases without knowing SQL, pulling data from web APIs without having a clue about HTTP, or renaming a thousand of files in a loop. No-code is not about doing everything. No-code is about being able to do something, because previously its target audience could do nothing. Remember that excitement when you wrote your first Hello World program and it worked? This is exactly how "citizen developers" feel about no-code.

Second, no-code is not a replacement for general-purpose computing and never meant to be. There is only a limited set of tasks, that can be efficiently automated using no-code and high-level abstractions - ETL, file/folder manipulations, RPA, certain things from gamedev and ML, and maybe robotics. However, these tasks are very common and no-code saves a lot of time and money for them.

Third, no-code creates a new class of people that can do programming, because no-code is programming. It just uses higher-level abstractions and can be imperative, declarative, or functional. This class of programming is here to stay because it works.

I'll stop here because I can talk about no-code for hours :)

[1] https://easymorph.com

dgudkov··on The SaaS Org Chart
>At IPO (average) $100,000 of ARR per employee

So it's for companies that aren't profitable even at IPO. Not my cup of tea.

dgudkov··on The Tyranny of Spreadsheets
Thank you. I didn't know this. I wouldn't call the process easy, but it's relatively straightforward.
dgudkov··on The Tyranny of Spreadsheets
Can you point me to an article that shows a simple way how to do a simple SQL-like join (no aggregation) of two regions in the same spreadsheet? Two source tables, and one result table - all in the same spreadsheet.

Something that is as simple as this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYCtoRTEk84

dgudkov··on The Tyranny of Spreadsheets
>you break the transformation across many cells

In theory, yes. But the reality, nobody does that unless an error is apparent and needs to be investigated. The vast majority of calculations in Excel spreadsheets are done using cumbersome, multi-line, unreadable formulas that try to pack as much logic as possible into one expression. Such obscure formulas are the main reason why lots of business-critical Excel spreadsheets contain grave errors, many of which are are never discovered.

dgudkov··on The Tyranny of Spreadsheets
The link leads to an article on PowerQuery which is a Power BI product. PowerQuery can surely do joins, but it doesn't operate within Excel's data model - cells and sheets. It's an external tool from the Power BI family from which integrates with Excel to a certain extent.

In a similar fashion you could've posted a link to running an SQL join query from Excel (which is surely doable for a trained user). Technically it's possible, but it would be wrong to pretend like the join is done in Excel.

dgudkov··on The Tyranny of Spreadsheets
The point about spatial representation is spot on. The problem is that in Excel calculations tend to be presented as huge unreadable formulas with no intermediate steps. Thus the spatial representation actually only covers the first and the last step, but rarely something in between.
dgudkov··on The Tyranny of Spreadsheets
>Spreadsheets give not-super-technical users a way to program data transformations in what I would argue is the most generally intuitive way that exists

I don't think spreadsheets are a good way to program data transformations at all. Data transformations are inherently a pipeline/function abstraction, and even non-technical users understand that. Spreadsheets don't offer a good way to decompose a data transformation process and inspect each step for correctness. This alone makes them prone to calculation errors. Also, tables are an afterthought to spreadsheets, therefore even trivial joins are always a pain in Excel.

I have a good practical experience with building visual pipeline-based data transformation tools [1] for non-technical users and they have been a success.

[1] https://easymorph.com

dgudkov··on Man dies of a heart attack after minors swatted him over his rare Twitter handle
The person who arranged the swatting goes to jail for 5 years: https://www.theregister.com/2021/07/22/qwk_swatting_death/
dgudkov··on Restaurant workers quit at record rate
All those people who write "Just raise wages!" clearly never managed a restaurant.
dgudkov··on MIT Predicted Society Will Collapse in 2040. Research Shows We're on Schedule
>I wonder how the younger generation is supposed to plan for the future?

Take a few lessons from people who live in 2nd- and 3rd-world countries. They used to not rely on government or expect financial stability for decades ahead. Yet, they survive pretty well and some even thrive.

People didn't always have stable currencies, pension funds, and unemployment benefits over their history.

dgudkov··on Give me /events, not webhooks
I think the author is fighting the wrong problem. Webhooks are a notification mechanism first of all, not a data transfer protocol. You can view it as a control plane which can be mixed or not with a data plane.

What they offer is a data plane and it makes sense. Although, it doesn't contradict the idea of webhooks, but rather complements it. A consumer can get notified via a webhook when new data is available. Whether the data itself comes with the webhook, or is available via an additional API request, is a matter of design. Personally, I like the idea of separating the control plane from the data plane. However, in some cases it can be an overkill.

dgudkov··on HIV vaccine trial starts at Oxford
A headline that would've been absolutely unthinkable 10 or 20 years ago. We live in the future.
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