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erostrate

1,022 karma · joined December 15, 2014

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erostrate··on Black Hole Visualization in Unreal Engine
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=sqrt%284+distance+to+n...

It would take about 30 years to get there, assuming constant acceleration & deceleration of 5g, so I hope you won't be dying too fast :)

erostrate··on UC Berkeley inappropriately admitted students as favors to donors
In France to get into an elite STEM university ("engineering school") students all take the same maths/physics/CS exams and the overall grade is the only factor deciding admission. Everything is state funded.

It's not perfect, but it levels the playing field a lot more than other systems. And it's good at making sure talented but poor students have access to the best programs. At those the level is high, for example the best math program probably has the highest Fields medal per student ratio of any university in the world.

The downside is that universities and engineering schools are small and underfunded so they don't stand out in worldwide rankings.

How do rich people game the system? They can to some extent game it earlier, putting their kids in better high schools. But the kids will still have to take the same exams. So generally they just avoid this system and put their kids into business schools, which are not state funded and where admission is based on much softer and game-able criteria. Or they send them to US universities.

erostrate··on A Saudi prince's attempt to silence critics on Twitter
The idea that morality is a function of situation more than character is called "situationism" in philosophy, I just looked it up, see [1][2]. Experimental psychology does find that character is fairly weak in most people and that under external pressure people will often behave inhumanely (Stanford prison experiment, Milgram obedience experiment, etc).

I still believe it is important to not be overly cynical. My mental model is that most people are neutral or good. It might be proved wrong say 5% of the time, when people are indeed put in MBS-like position. But the vast majority of the time it will be correct, and it will be much more useful than the cynical model where your normal friends are potential murderers that just lack opportunity. A more correct mental model is not always more useful.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Situationism_(psychology) [2] https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/moral-character/#MorChaEm...

erostrate··on A Saudi prince's attempt to silence critics on Twitter
> It's worth remembering that dictators are not inhuman, and they are not so different from us.

It's also worth remembering we're talking about someone who assassinates his critics and cuts them up into pieces. I would say the "bone saw" aspect outweighs the "playing AoE" aspect and he is very different from us.

erostrate··on Apple just kicked Fortnite off the App Store
This argument works as long as there is healthy competition, so that consumer's preferences get reflected in the offer. If the market is a monopoly or duopoly you could get very undesirable outcomes.
erostrate··on Friedrich Hayek on Evolution and Spontaneous Order (1983) [video]
Couldn't agree more, as someone very much on the left. I read The Road to Serfdom and along with Smith and Basquiat it made me a libertarian early on. Later I turned and I'm now very much on the left but still respect Hayek's ideas and arguments.
erostrate··on Forget Google, time to end the Visa-MasterCard duopoly
How come we haven't had big privacy scandals from Visa/ Mastercard?

Big companies, a rent-like business, no pressure to do things well, own lots of very sensitive personal data, clients giving the data away without realizing it, little regulatory oversight on the data front, etc.

I would expect them to sell or leak poorly anonymised personal data, leading to huge privacy issues.

Why hasn't this happened?

erostrate··on Forget Google, time to end the Visa-MasterCard duopoly
And one year after that we will get self driving cars. And the next one will definitely be the year of Linux on the desktop :)

Sure, it could happen somewhere down the line but saying that blockchain is "destroying the moat" today is a big stretch. Blockchain barely just started to realize that the moat is actually much larger than previously thought. And that parts of the moat exist for a reason. It's barely starting to understand the moat, still far from attacking it, let alone destroying it.

Hopefully it will but I'm not holding my breath nor my bitcoins.

erostrate··on Three questions that keep me up at night
I certainly agree that Adler's provocative tone is not helpful and his strokes are sometimes too broad to be fully correct as you have rightfully pointed out, but the general point stands.

To me the Turing test gives a falsifiable experiment that defines what "thinking like a human being" means.

It does so by focusing only on the input output. To do that, it puts the system under test out of view of the experimenter and mediates the experiment with written text.

So yes, the input output is the important part, the Turing test, albeit flawed, is interesting, and any claim that machines can't think based on a definition of "think" that does not lend itself to a falsifiable experiment, such as Searle's, is uninteresting.

I will leave it at that and make a quick exit, as Adler suggests.

erostrate··on Three questions that keep me up at night
Why can't you assume time symmetric billiard balls? If you take a lot of them, black and white, put all the black ones on one side and the white on the other, give them random velocities, and wait a bit, you will end up with them all mixed together. The entropy has increased even though all interactions are reversible. The macroscopic transformation is time asymmetric (the balls will not sort themselves back again) even though the microscopic transformations are time symmetric (elastic collisions and frictionless movement).

The way I think about this (from Feynman) is that entropy measures "how special" a macroscopic state is, on average. When you apply many microscopic independent fluctuations to a given state you are unlikely to end up with a "more special" state. That's how states are ordered at the macroscopic level giving the arrow of time a clear direction.

erostrate··on Three questions that keep me up at night
See Mike Adler answer to Searle. To use your digestion metaphor, as long as the input is food and the output is energy and byproducts, AI researchers don't care whether philosophers would call it "real digestion" or a "formal simulation of digestion". Same goes for thinking.

https://philosophynow.org/issues/46/Newtons_Flaming_Laser_Sw...

erostrate··on Three questions that keep me up at night
Richard Feynman has a good explanation for 3.

http://www.informationphilosopher.com/solutions/scientists/f...

erostrate··on Why are we using black box models in AI when we don’t need to? (2019)
The article explains that their fully interpretable model actually got within 1% accuracy of the best black box model. Which was within cross validation error. That was at a data science competition whose explicit goal was to encourage people to explain black box models. They also give other examples of cases where people have used black box models unnecessarily.
erostrate··on Open letter concerning Facebook's proposals to apply end-to-end encryption
Some people, including in these comments, make the argument that preventing E2EE on Facebook is pointless because offenders can simply move to another service. That's not a very good argument for two reasons.

First, Facebook is already used by pedophiles despite the lack of E2EE. 2500 arrests for child abuse last year according to the letter. An example is given of a pedophile identified through his messages with an 11 year old girl. With E2EE enabled he would not have been identified at that time.

Secondly, the letter highlights that a major problem is the combination of open profiles of children with E2EE messaging. This does not apply to any service, mainly Facebook and similar platforms.

Don't get me wrong, I am overall in favour of E2EE, and I share the usual cynicism about the government's intentions.

You can make the argument that although absence of E2EE does help identify pedophiles more easily, in the balance it is more important to enable E2EE to protect privacy.

But you should not make the argument that absence of E2EE on FB would not help identify pedophiles more easily, because this letter provides evidence that it actually does.

erostrate··on Can we survive technology? (1955) [pdf]
"The carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by industry's burning of coal and oil-—more than half of it during the last generation—may have changed the atmosphere's composition sufficiently to account for a general warming of the world by about one degree Fahrenheit."

"Even in an airplane the number of vacuum tubes now approaches or exceeds a thousand. Other machines, containing up to 10,000 vacuum tubes, up to five times more crystals, and possibly more than 100,000 cores, now operate faultlessly over long periods, performing many millions of regulated, preplanned actions per second, with an expectation of only a few errors per day or week. Many such machines have been built to perform complicated scientific and engineering calculations and large scale accounting and logistical surveys. There is no doubt that they will be used for elaborate industrial process control, logistical, economic, and other planning"

erostrate··on The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate Amazon and Apple
They attacked the Base Management Controller. There's an article by Bruce Schneier from 2013 warning about exactly this attack. Quoting:

"Basically, it's a perfect spying platform. You can't control it. You can't patch it. It can completely control your computer's hardware and software. And its purpose is remote monitoring. At the very least, we need to be able to look into these devices and see what's running on them."

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2013/01/the_eavesdrop...

erostrate··on I'm Scott Aaronson, quantum computing/computational complexity researcher. AMA
Thanks! This is indeed related and part of my inspiration for this question.

Some other interesting references:

- The waterfall argument in paragraph 6 of the mind-boggling "Why Philosophers Should Care About Computational Complexity". https://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/philos.pdf

- "NP-complete Problems and Physical Reality" https://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/npcomplete.pdf

erostrate··on I'm Scott Aaronson, quantum computing/computational complexity researcher. AMA
Hi Scott

There are non-quantum physical systems that exhibits positive and negative amplitudes and interference.

Can I factor large numbers by throwing rocks in a lake and measuring the water height at the right place? Why not?

erostrate··on Professors Make More Than a Thousand Dollars an Hour Peddling Mega-Mergers
Economics studies the production of wealth, which is more relevant to business? Also economics claim to have a strong predictive power? I don't know.

There are also interesting differences in how economists view themselves compared to other humanities, see this (biased) paper: Fourcade et al, the Superiority of Economists http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.29.1.89 Economics tend to be a more insular and hierarchical discipline, and views itself as non-normative.

erostrate··on Professors Make More Than a Thousand Dollars an Hour Peddling Mega-Mergers
Economists are in favor of carbon taxes because the alternative is environmental regulation. They favor open immigration policies because it brings flexibility to the job market. Leading to less job security for low skill workers and more profits for multinational companies.

Economists are not intentionally supporting multinationals interests over people's interests. They do so as a side effect of their belief in the correctness and practical relevance of microeconomics and neo-classical theories. This behaviour is in turn encouraged and rewarded by multinationals and investment banks, leading dissenting voices to be marginalized. Of course there are notable exceptions, Stiglitz, Krugman, Rodrik, and a few others. But the general point is that if you want to get an economics PhD from a red brick university you will have to support this viewpoint.

erostrate··on Thought Experiments in Mathematics: Gabriel's Horn
My intuition is that the converse is impossible in general. There is an axis along which an object with infinite volume is infinite, and taking cross sections along this axis you should be able to prove that the object has infinite area.
erostrate··on Tinker with a Neural Network in Your Browser
The swiss roll problem also illustrates nicely the idea behind deep learning.

Before deep learning people would manually design all these extra features sin(x_1), x_1^2, etc. because they thought it was necessary to fit this swiss roll dataset. So they would use a shallow network with all these features like this: http://imgur.com/H1cvt8d

Then the deep learning guys realized that you don't have to engineer all these extra features, you can just use basic features x_1, x_2 and let the network learn more complicated transformations in subsequent layers. So they would use a deep network with only x_1, x_2 as inputs: http://imgur.com/XBRjROP

Both these approaches work here (loss < 0.01). The difference is that for the first one you have to manually choose the extra features sin(x_1), x_1^2, ... for each problem. And the more complicated the problem the harder it is to design good features. People in the computer vision community spent years and years trying to design good features for e.g. object recognition. But finally some people realized that deep networks could learn these features themselves. And that's the main idea in deep learning.

erostrate··on Lee Sedol Beats AlphaGo in Game 4
> Scientific studies have shown that skills in abstract strategy games are so specific to the game that they do not transfer to other tasks

Do you have a reference for that please? I'm interested in the subject.

erostrate··on The Command Line Murders
Your first command uses 13 distinct non-alphanumeric characters: '{="\;}$~/.*&

It looks more like black magic than code to someone like me who doesn't know awk. It reminds me of these APL/J/K solutions I see on projecteuler.net. I imagine this is what happens when people completely ignore learning curve steepness and optimize for maximum productivity. Very impressive!

erostrate··on Why London Underground stopped people walking up the escalators
"With the constant (and unsustainable) attention of staff, and three weeks of practice, they eventually became a little more docile [...] It’s like child psychology [...] So if you can’t tell them what to do every two minutes, how on earth do you get them to comply? [...] The handrail and tread of the escalator will be a different colour, and firmly planted pairs of feet will decorate the left of the steps."

I wonder if they have tried to simply explain to commuters why it makes sense to stand on both sides. Treating people like intelligent and responsible adults often works much better than treating them like intellectually disabled children.

erostrate··on Project Rider – A C# IDE
JetBrains products are very powerful, well designed, customizable, and overall awesome in my experience (ReSharper and PyCharm). Looking forward to this! And really hoping they will have a free edition, although I doubt it.
erostrate··on The Chinese Room Argument
Isn't this counterargument similar to the reply labelled (1) in part 4?

Quoting the text:

(1) Some critics concede that the man in the room doesn't understand Chinese, but hold that nevertheless running the program may create something that understands Chinese. These critics object to the inference from the claim that the man in the room does not understand Chinese to the conclusion that no understanding has been created. There might be understanding by a larger, or different, entity. This is the strategy of The Systems Reply and the Virtual Mind Reply. These replies hold that the output of the room reflects understanding of Chinese, but the understanding is not that of the room's operator.

erostrate··on Long range forecast
Furthermore the know-it-all tone undermines credibility for me. Societies are complicated systems. People who claim to have a simple model to explain many events are more likely to be deluded than correct. By deluded I mean suffering from confirmation bias, erroneous pattern recognition, etc.
erostrate··on Let’s Encrypt Now Being Abused by Malvertisers
Indeed, trendmicro doesnt say anything about that. Let's Encrypt says "The concern most commonly expressed is that having valid HTTPS certificates helps these sites look more legitimate, making people more likely to trust them." I agree with Let's Encrypt position, they are not to blame here.

https://letsencrypt.org/2015/10/29/phishing-and-malware.html

erostrate··on Biggest mystery in mathematics in limbo after cryptic meeting
I agree. More generally I have often wondered if pure mathematics (and theoretical physics [1]) will reach such a level of abstraction that it becomes impossible to digest all the established ideas in order to build on it. The mathematicians attending this workshop have an ability to manipulate extremely abstract concepts that is superior to the vast majority of humans, and even they can't seem to handle this proof.

[1] http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gadda001/goodtheorist/index....

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