680 karma · joined June 1, 2018
If the "solution" is a bunch of layoffs, it's just going to compound the problem. The solution is all these companies that aren't actually dying need to raise wages to match all the recent inflation.
Having tons of data is a Good Thing, so long as you can afford the marginal cost of gathering and managing all that data so that it's ready at hand when you need it later.
It's how you use the data that makes all the difference. If you're facing an issue you don't understand at all, don't go digging for random correlations in your mountain of data to find an explanation.
Think like a scientist: you need a valid hypothesis first! Once you have a hypothesis about what your issue might plausibly be, then you make a prediction: "If I'm right, I suspect our Foobar data will show very low values of Xyzzy around 3AM every weekday night". Only then do you go look at that specific data to confirm or refute the hypothesis. If you don't get a confirmation, you need to go back to hypothesizing and predicting before you look again. You can't prove causation by merely correlating data.
Also, not everyone will even need L2 everywhere all the time, because many will be able to charge at home or use fast-chargers in emergencies. You don't have to be near-full at all times. You could deploy them at only 1/N spots, say something closer to 1/4 of all the spots, if even that (apartments might need 1/1, but streets and business parking lots/garages would need far less. You don't need them in any short-term street parking areas, as L2 is mostly-useless unless the car is sitting in place for hours).
You also don't necessarily need to have the raw power to run them all simultaneously: you can have local groups powershare (e.g. deploy 8 chargers with a feed-in that supports 4, and the chargers can coordinate to drop their charge rate as more people plug in).
If those wild assumptions are true ($1k, 1/4 of parking spots), LA's bill drops to $1.5B, which seems much more reasonable. The capacity will build up organically over time as EV adoption grows, starting with corporate and apartment parking lots.
I think in this hypothetical all-EV future, there would be other compensating changes to the city as well. Like, all gas stations would go poof, and their tanks, and the fuel delivery trucks, and most of the refineries, and all of the associated impacts on peoples' health from both the fueling and the car exhausts, etc. There's a lot of potential upside to offset any reasonable electrification costs.
Driving is inherently very dangerous. Traffic accidents are a leading cause of death in the US. You're not really chasing perfection to win this game. It's not all that hard to beat humans on average, because the average human is pretty terrible. It's a statistical certainty that some people will die at the hands of Autopilot even when it's in some final non-beta state, but it will probably be less people than would otherwise die to the same miles driven manually.
The hard thing for Autopilot-like systems is perceiving the world accurately. "The world" includes both the physical reality of roads+cars it senses, as well as things like traffic rules, corner cases (construction, debris, manual police control of an intersection with a dead traffic light), and gauging the intent of other/human drivers. Humans are inherently better at that stuff. The software has to get better than it is today, but it will probably never fully match the best humans at this part.
However, there are two key ways the software inherently outdoes humans:
(1) It can have more sensory data than humans. Even Tesla (currently sans Radar + Lidar, just cameras) can see in every direction at the same time, all the time, with an overlapping array of cameras. No blindspots, no temporary blindness in one direction while you crane your neck to check in another, etc.
(2) It never gets tired, distracted, or drunk. It's never checking a facebook feed, or nodding off after a sleepless night, or too engaged in a conversation with a passenger to remember to look for that cross-traffic, etc. This is a huge advantage when it comes to accident rates.
Customers had to opt-in to request beta-testing access, they had to pass a Safety Score system that grades their driving safety (same as car insurance apps, roughly) for a long period (in some cases many months!), etc. After going through those hoops, when they finally get the software for it, they're required to consent again. IIRC the text there includes things like: You are in control at all times, must keep hands on the wheel and eyes on the road and intervene for safety, you are liable for anything that happens, this software can do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time, etc. They also monitor for your hands on the wheel (via torque sensing) and use an in-cabin camera to monitor whether you're watching the road or looking at a cellphone, etc. These measures can be defeated with effort by unsafe idiots, but that's no different than the risks such unsafe idiots present when driving any car.
With all of that in place, they've scaled up over a couple of years to 160K customer test pilots. Accidents happen, but there's no evidence the rate of them is anything to worry about. If anything, what evidence there is seems to point in the direction of FSDb test drivers being safer than average. However, they're supposedly removing the Safety Score part of the process Very Soon (likely in the next few weeks), but the rest of the warnings and mitigations should remain.
--- meta stuff:
There's a ton of money and a ton of ego pushing huge agendas in every direction when it comes to anything Elon-related, Tesla included, especially since the Twitter saga began and he started really going off the rails more. Almost anything you read on related topics, regardless of which "side" it's on, you have to question the motive to even begin to understand the underlying objective truth. I follow Tesla news a lot, and I'd say ~90% of all random internet news articles on these subjects (positive and negative) are mostly utter bullshit clickbait when they're not outright fraud, and they're designed to influence stock prices and/or buyer behaviors more than they provide useful information. When big money and big egos are in a war over something, objective truth on the Internet is a casualty.
If you ignore all that line noise and look at the objective reality of the engineering parts though: it's pretty amazing beta software with a lot of future potential, and the testing has gone pretty smoothly in terms of safety. It could be many years before you'd let it chaffeur some elderly person on a pharmacy run as a robotaxi, but IMHO it's still a better bet than most of its competitors in the long game of fully-generalized self driving on the human-centric road networks we have today.
As for Elon himself: clearly some of his behavior and viewpoints lately are both pretty objectively terrible. At least you can see it? How many executives from companies that built things we all relied on from the past few decades have really been any better? They've mostly been better at hiding it, while Elon puts it on full display. The world is what it is.
"Disengagement" is going to happen for different reasons for all of these different cases. There's the axis that runs from merely inconveniencing others (e.g. "I disengaged because I was holding up traffic by being embarrassingly slow through a turn at an intersection") to the ones where a serious accident was averted (e.g. "I hit the brakes moments before the car caused a head-on collision). There's the scenario differences that feed into thresholds for deciding to disengage: professional safety drivers on planned tasks that have been given a sort of "rules of disengagement", vs everyday normal humans getting groceries and intervening whenever they feel like it for whatever reason. There's the fact that many competitors are operating in tight geofenced, HD-mapped areas, while FSD is operating real-world all over the country.
I agree that Tesla's lack of transparency is troubling here, but this article seems to be trying to pressure them to increase it by taking a dishonest tack and stack all the unknowns against them in the worst possible way.
They have published basic accident statistics (in the past), and those have generally shown their automation to be a net win. In their own published stats from Q4 21 (latest available on https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport ), the comparison they make is this:
* NHSTA data says the whole US averaged one accident per 484K miles.
* All Tesla cars on the road averaged one accident per 1.59M miles (so, ~3.5x better? This could also be caused by the profile of Tesla drivers rather than any real car safety difference - income, where they live, etc)
* Tesla cars with some form of Autopilot engaged averaged one accident per 4.31M miles driven (~2.7x better than non-Autopilot Tesla data, and overall ~10x better than the national average).
1) We're only going to fully "solve" self-driving with ML techniques to train deployed NNs; it can't be done purely in human-written deterministic code because the task is too complex.
2) Those NNs are only going to come up to the necessary levels of quality with a ton of very-real-world test miles. Various forms of "artificial" in-house testing and simulation can help in some ways, but without the real-world data you won't get anywhere.
3) Deploying cars into the real world (to gather the above) without some kind of safety driver doesn't seem like a great path either. There's no backup driver to take over and intervene / unstick the car, and so far driverless taxi fleet efforts have been fairly narrowly geofenced for safety, which decreases the scope of scenarios they even get data on vs the whole real-world driving experience.
4) Therefore, the best plan to acquire the data to train the networks is to use a ton of customers as safety drivers and let them test it widely on the real routes they drive. This is tricky and dangerous, but if it's not too dangerous and the outcome saves many lives over the coming years, it was worth it.
Defer is useful for code clarity in many situations IMHO, and it's easy enough for a project or code QA tool to ban its use for those that don't like it.
With this hybrid approach, you're still advancing the cause at $work, but you're not doing it directly or exclusively for them, and the open source project will have visibility, scope, and utility beyond $work and your employment there. You never know, it might even be the start of future promising career opportunities.
There be dragons of course with how exempt employment and copyrights work in the US, though (as in, this might be a trivial case where if the side-project is successful, your employer can claim rights on it). You could come to some agreement with your employer ahead of time about the independence of such projects, though.
I would argue that the other departments/teams you listed are also necessary to the long-term health of the Foundation and the sites as well. However, even if we hypothetically decided that your whole list of "non-essential" org departments/teams/functions were a complete waste of resources (and again, they're not, IMHO!), those still don't comprise all the "other half" of the org's non-tech/product headcount, as you're still missing other essential teams like Legal, Talent&Culture (HR), etc, which are also significant chunks (Legal alone is a little over 10% of staff and extremely important and impactful!).
As to your point about budget growth: it was a different site and a different Internet in 2006. The org is growing up and becoming more responsible. It's getting more resilient in the face of an increasingly hostile Internet, it's getting better at fighting technical and legal censorship battles around the world, and it's slowly replacing the externalities of burning out a handful of highly skilled and overworked staff with more robust and "normal" staffing where employees can have real work-life balance and vacation plans or departures don't cause undue risks, etc. We're also trying to reach out to and support the growth of underserved Wikipedian communities around the world (both in technical and non-technical senses) in ways that we couldn't even dream of in 2006. Increased costs and overhead are to be expected with all of this!
Even at today's Tech headcounts, if you compare us to any other major sites of this importance, scope, or even traffic level on the Internet, we're still operating on relatively-shoestring tech staffing levels, especially considering we don't outsource core infrastructure to 3rd party services or clouds, mostly due to our strong user privacy and legal stances.
The Mission is what you're trying to achieve (the profit motive, in some form), and the Values are the guardrails. They say explicitly what things you won't sacrifice (like human rights and lives) in service of the mission.
Having this stuff laid out clearly from the top down helps a lot with getting efforts to create and enforce those lower level processes taken seriously.
Apparently a small number of women have Tetrachromacy, where they have a 4th type of cone in their eye and can see a much broader range of colors, thanks to their genes. The gene isn't super-rare (I think one article claimed ~12% of women have the genetic condition for it), but the functional ability to perceive with all 4 types of cones is very rare. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20140905-the-women-with-s... has a story about one confirmed case.
Science is not a set of facts caved in stone. Science is a process; a way of thinking critically and exploring the boundaries of reality in a way that makes a best effort at getting closer and closer to the boundaries of the knowable in a rational and reasonably-objective way. It often makes missteps and corrections along the way, and we can acknowledge that openly while also contrasting it to non-science junk that isn't even on the right track.