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flgb

436 karma · joined September 7, 2010

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flgb··on A first for Canada: New type of nuclear plant opening by 2028
> “Australia […] depends on coal”

About 60% of Australia’s electricity came from coal over the last 12-months, but this proportion is rapidly declining and all the large coal plants are losing money and slated for closure.

https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=all&interval=1y

flgb··on A first for Canada: New type of nuclear plant opening by 2028
"evry couple of years" .. umm nope. Try every 10-20 years for the inverter and every 20-30 years for the panels. Roof-top solar in Australia is cheap and almost ubiquitous.
flgb··on A first for Canada: New type of nuclear plant opening by 2028
Reasons why Australia doesn't and won't have nuclear:

1. Nuclear is a more expensive sources of energy than our alternatives (uranium ore is a small proportion of the cost stack, and Australia would still need to import nuclear fuel)

2. Nuclear isn't commercially viable in energy markets with very high levels of variable renewable energy where they have to be economically curtailed on an almost daily basis (our coal plants are all closing for this reason)

flgb··on Launch HN: Charge Robotics (YC S21) - Robots that build solar farms
Tracking solar systems can deliver 5-hours of generation. Solar and wind is for super cheap bulk energy. Solar is delivering the cheapest energy in history. Then we use a portfolio of other resources for balancing - grid interconnections; short and long-duration storage including pumped hydro; load flex; and bio-fuel, electro-fuel, and natural gas generators very occasionally.
flgb··on Why did renewables become so cheap so fast? (2020)
Electricity transmission and distribution can be about half the delivered cost of electricity. You can add to this energy losses from centrally generated electricity, which are on average around 10%, but can be as high as 25%.

There are already places where locally generated energy is cheaper than utility-supplied energy, and this will only increase over time as the costs of solar and storage continue to decline.

Where I live in Western Australia the local utility is trying to get ahead of this trend by cutting the network and deploying stand-alone power systems to customers on the edge of the power grid.

flgb··on Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4
This is simply not true.

And even if it was nuclear is not a viable response with new projects taking decades to develop. Todays nuclear industry is delivering warmed-up 1970s technology that is expensive, slow, and inflexible.

Solar/wind/batteries with a small amount of backup capacity from hydro, power-to-gas/fuel, biofuels, or new long-duration storage is cheaper and faster to deploy.

flgb··on Fire breaks out at Tesla Big Battery
Meanwhile two fossil-fuel power stations in Australia have had much more serious fires recently, which are very unlikely to attract the international medias attention ... - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-17/victorian-government-... - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-02/qld-cs-energy-release...
flgb··on Power Plant Decides Mining Bitcoin Is More Profitable Than Selling Electricity
What I choose to use energy for is valid and worthwhile. What you choose to use energy for is invalid and wasteful?

Maybe we just get on with decarbonizing the energy system, make sure everyone is paying for the energy they use, and then we don't have to worry about making moral judgements.

flgb··on What Will Happen to All the Dead Electric Car Batteries?
E.g. https://www.relectrify.com
flgb··on ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world
Concerns about Germany’s energy system transition and the question of whether power companies are “screwed” are kind of orthogonal.

There are different kinds of power companies.

Utilities with a regulated asset base that get to socialize all of their costs across rate payers aren’t screwed.

Asset-light energy suppliers/retailers in competitive deregulated markets aren’t screwed.

Asset-heavy power generators in competitive deregulated markets might be screwed .. if they have a large portfolio of legacy assets.

Solar PV creates two problems for them.

Firstly, distributed solar reduces the load available to them to serve.

Secondly, centralized and distributed solar depress wholesale energy prices in the middle of the day (and causes increasing frequency of negative-price events).

Together these reduce the volume of sales, reduce profitability, and can increase running costs, because many legacy generators weren’t originally designed to be flexible with the ability to ramp up and down every day.

While solar PV isn’t good for some power companies, it’s generally good for consumers.

flgb··on Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030
Hyper-competitive low-margin market, many very efficient vertically-integrated solar sales businesses (sales, installation, logistics), lower selling costs (very engaged consumers), most homes single story so lower installation costs, and lower permitting and connection costs.
flgb··on Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030
Not in Australia, where we have much more roof-top solar (and which is less than half-the-price installed of roof-top in the US)
flgb··on Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030
I suspect most of the intermittency of wind and solar will be addressed through super-capacity (500% of peak demand, not 100%) and geographic diversity. Batteries will be used for very short-term local balancing and power regulation ... then for those occasional times when hydro, wind and solar don’t cut it, we’ll still burn a little gas but it will be bio gas or green hydrogen, rather than fossil gas. This gas will be expensive, but these plants will hardly ever run.
flgb··on WARNING: Bitcoin Will Eat the World
Electricity is not a finite resource. We have access to functionally unlimited energy from renewable sources which is becoming exponentially cheaper to convert to electricity, but it is a variable resource. What we need is not 100% renewables, but more like 500-600%. We need economic activity to unlock the investment in new infrastructure. Bitcoin is arguably the way forward for cheap clean energy, not the obstacle.
flgb··on Tesla's market cap now accounts for roughly 1/3rd of the global automaker market
And how much the global energy market, which they are also disrupting?
flgb··on Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?
LNG tankers are today’s energy equivalent of station wagon full of tapes. In the future we might do the same by liquefying hydrogen (or ammonia) to distribute energy from renewable-rich countries to renewable-poor ones.
flgb··on After many false starts, hydrogen power might now bear fruit
> worst managed (and most expensive) electricity globally

That's a strong claim. Wholesale electricity prices in South Australia are currently around USD$45/MWh.

My understanding is that South Australia has historically always had the highest electricity prices in Australia due to dependence on gas generation within a small market controlled by two players who took advantage of their market power, but that this is starting to reverse now due to the shift to more renewables over the last decade, and South Australia may now be on track to have the cheapest electricity in Australia.

flgb··on Nuclear power is the only green solution (2004)
He writes in the context of the UK. In January 2008 the UK Government gave the go-ahead to build a nuclear power station. This is Hinkley Point C. It might be producing power in 2023. It could cost as much as £22 billion. This kind of project is certainly not the solution.
flgb··on BlackRock’s decision to dump coal signals what’s next
> Lastly I should mention that metallurgical coal as opposed to thermal coal is a necessary “evil” to smelt steel.

Hydrogen can be used to smelt steel, and hydrogen can be produced from renewable energy.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/thyssenkrupp-tests-use-...

flgb··on 24-Hour Solar Energy: Molten Salt Makes It Possible
Something like this? https://www.sundropfarms.com/facilities/
flgb··on 24-Hour Solar Energy: Molten Salt Makes It Possible
The price of energy is definitely trending to free in Australia due to renewables —- just not for every hour of the day, yet.

It’s not that electricity will be free when we get there, it’s just that consumers will stop paying for volume (how much energy did you use) and start paying for capacity / maximum demand (how much generation and network infrastructure was required to serve you).

flgb··on The Library Card Project: The Ease of Forming Anonymous Companies in the U.S.
Australia doesn’t require voter ID either. Voter ID is a vehicle for voter suppression (and generally called for by the politically conservative).
flgb··on Nuclear power is the fastest way to slash greenhouse gas emissions, decarbonize
That’s not what happens with next-gen renewables —- they are modular and can be built much faster and much cheaper.

New build nuclear is not cost competitive with new build wind and solar (even when you account for firming costs), and the cost of wind and solar is still falling at an astonishing rate.

flgb··on General Motors starts taking orders for its electric bicycle
Yes with new products emerging every day that are much better designed and full-featured, like: https://www.tillerrides.com/features
flgb··on HUD Files Housing Discrimination Complaint Against Facebook
> So if I get a radio license and then broadcast an illegal ad, it's the FCC's fault.

How is Facebook the FCC and not the broadcaster in this metaphor?

flgb··on Building for the Blockchain
In many jurisdictions "the real-world deeds" are already just a database record (albeit one in a central database managed by a Government agency).
flgb··on Canva becomes Australia’s only privately backed tech startup to be valued at $1B
Atlassian is definitely Australian. But if we count them, there are a lot more Australian tech businesses worth more than US$1B: Acconex was just bought by Oracle for US$1.2B, and we have tech businesses from the last web boom like Seek.com (~US$5B), or going even further back, businesses like MYOB (~US$1.7B).
flgb··on US solar plant costs fall another 30 per cent in one year
Energy costs are significantly lower in the US.
flgb··on Alaska’s Permafrost Is Thawing
But not sufficiently cheap, compared to alternatives.
flgb··on Ask HN: What are some examples of successful single-person businesses?
Daring Fireball by Jon Gruber (https://daringfireball.net).
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