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forgingahead

4,252 karma · joined June 2, 2011

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forgingahead··on OpenAI’s Red Team: the experts hired to ‘break’ ChatGPT
Most of these Red Team testers sound like cookie cutter members of the Grievance Industrial Complex. Whether or not there are "safety" issues with this tech (and the jury is still out on that) - these people don't seem like they're looking at the right issues.
forgingahead··on Who Is Running Stanford?
American universities have become extravagant nurseries for overgrown babies, both the students and the staff. Some ancient professors (ie: pre 2013) are probably still ok, but otherwise the whole thing has become nothing but a bunch of crybabies and whiners pointing at each other and screeching.

University used to be a signal; get in, graduate, and maybe you've got something more to you than the average person. Now, it's an anti-signal: if you actually jumped through the hoops to get in, and went into debt to indoctrinate yourself, not to mention actively harm your ability to function in the real world, then sane employers are going to forgo you.

forgingahead··on Xylazine, a dangerous new drug fuelling Canada’s opioid crisis
Because unfortunately, ideology trumps reality on anonymous message boards. Too many posters here, despite the high end white collar work they do, cannot seem to apply similar smarts to managing society, instead falling back on their own biases and personal preferences. Harsh punishments are not "good", but living in a decaying drug-infested society with no solution is worse.
forgingahead··on EditAnything: Segment Anything + ControlNet + BLIP2 + Stable Diffusion
Nice work! Did you figure out the training/fine-tuning code for Segment Anything? There's an on-going discussion on the official repo[0] but no clear results yet.

[0]https://github.com/facebookresearch/segment-anything/issues/...

forgingahead··on Xylazine, a dangerous new drug fuelling Canada’s opioid crisis
The Anglo West's approach to drugs has absolutely failed. Rehab the abusers, lock up and punish the dealers (some countries use the death penalty to strong results), and secure your borders properly.

Instead, we get kvetching and hand-wringing about "what can be done", and tittering discussions on online message boards, while society decays even further.

forgingahead··on Paul Graham on Twitter's anti-Substack measures: “It's a mistake.”
What if this is just his "4D chess" move to condition people that removing ANY links to ANY domain on Twitter is wrong? Twitter pre-Musk would arbitrarily remove links they went against party orthodoxy (The NY Post during the Hunter Biden laptop story was the biggest example I remember).

Just declaring "we won't censor anyone any time" is fine, but you still get all corners clamoring for their "opponent side" to be silenced. If you censor any of the typical outlets (NYTimes, CNN, Fox, Breitbart, etc), their audience will (rightfully) scream censorship but their opponents will be happy.

If you randomly cut 3rd party sites under the false guise of "you may think they're our (Twitter's) competitors" (but then reinstate it after a few days), it draws heat to Musk and Twitter, but then slowly conditions everyone to grudgingly agree that censorship is bad.

Mastodon and now Substack seem like they would fit the bill as appropriate guinea pigs for this temporary experiment.

forgingahead··on State-of-the-Art Chatbot, Vicuna-7B, now runs on MacBook with GPU acceleration
This is incredible to me (not your comment per se, but what you're referencing). I really don't understand how brittle and fragile Python is with all its dependencies. It's crazy to me that a simple bump from 3.10 to 3.11 can break Pytorch. This is like bumping your Ruby version up one level and suddenly Rails doesn't work.

Why on earth is Python like this? It's so frustrating coming from other languages where the dependency management plan isn't just so YOLO and free-for-all.

forgingahead··on If parrots can talk, why can’t monkeys?
What's with all this stories from El Pais being submitted by the OP all of a sudden? https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=elpais.com
forgingahead··on As Rates Rose, Banks Did a Balance Sheet Switch to Avoid Reporting Losses
https://archive.ph/YUXrD
forgingahead··on RailsCasts Retrospective Part 1: The Fuel
Echoing others, Ryan and Railscasts (and Asciicasts!) were instrumental in my own Rails and web development journey. When the subscription episodes were introduced, it was a no-brainer to pay for that for myself and for my team.

Obviously it was sad when Ryan had to stop, but it was important he focused on himself. Either way, still grateful for all the helpful content he put out to make us better developers.

In no particular order, some interesting flashbacks to that period of web development:

Billing with Stripe: http://railscasts.com/episodes/288-billing-with-stripe

Upgrading to Rails 4: http://railscasts.com/episodes/415-upgrading-to-rails-4

Facebook Open Graph: http://railscasts.com/episodes/363-facebook-open-graph

PayPal recurring billing: http://railscasts.com/episodes/289-paypal-recurring-billing

PDF with Prawn: http://railscasts.com/episodes/153-pdfs-with-prawn-revised

Thanks for all you did Ryan! Hope you are keeping well.

forgingahead··on ChatGPT for Robotics
So can I finally get a house robot that will clean the kitchen and fill up & empty our dishwasher?
forgingahead··on Inflation rose more than expected, up 6.4% from a year ago
Fascinating how different outlets are reporting this. The WSJ right now has it headlined "Inflation Cooled to 6.4% In January". https://www.wsj.com/

So is it rising or cooling? Can the central banks ease rate increases? Or does the WSJ just hope and pray that the Fed will stop, just please make it stop?

forgingahead··on Part II: The failure points from $5M to $100M in ARR
Great article and lots of salient advice in this post. It's so interesting to me that a company can get to $50 million ARR, and then feel strained because "there's enterprise competition". So what? I get that the pressure of VC-backed companies is go big or go home, but if the market that got them to 50 mill still loves and enjoys the product (which seems like it did), and churn is manageable, then one can probably truck along as a nice profitable business with some operational adjustments.

Again, I get that the VC-backed status doesn't allow this, but that's such an interesting distinction - this would be a successful $50mill ARR business if not VC-backed, but since it is, the panic button is pressed and that thus leads to decisions and scrambling that upend a lot of what was working.

Guess we all (as usual) need to make decisions about capital sources early and how we want to grow, as well as the real trade-offs between those choices.

forgingahead··on Tell HN: Airbnb has no system in place when a host cancels on a renter
I used Airbnb a lot back when they first started (and I also was a younger man with more "flexible" expectations). Now that I'm older, I don't use them at all, I prefer the brand hotels with a front-desk, minimum level of service expectation, and plenty of places to complain and make noise if things are not up to snuff.

A big part has been life stage changes, but also I think there's been a decline in safety in many major cities, such that I just don't want to risk the crap-shoot of an Airbnb any more. Hotels are not perfect, but it's a known product compared to Airbnb listings.

forgingahead··on Juan Tamariz, the godfather of close-up card magic
https://archive.is/eq15t
forgingahead··on Tesla’s 2022 Collapse Hits 69% After Deepest Selloff Since April
Ah, the old HN trope of "nice guys succeed in business because I myself am a nice guy, and tough operators with rough edges are all freakshows and got their success through thuggery and criminal activities".

Tesla was already over-priced on any basic metric. Elon is a phenomenal operator, regardless of whether you like his tweets or not. And if you follow the media coverage of any public figure on how you're "supposed" to think about them, I would recommend taking a breather and re-evaluating to whom you give root access to your mind to.

forgingahead··on Tell HN: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
Wexford Carol: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa9OHZGa9Rs
forgingahead··on Tell HN: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
Merry Christmas to all! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa9OHZGa9Rs
forgingahead··on Tiktoken: OpenAI’s Tokenizer
I know OpenAI has been getting a lot of flack about their seemingly extreme measures of "safety" (and I agree to an extent, although it's more nuanced from my perspective), full kudos to them for open sourcing many useful projects that can serve as the building block for many other projects. From CLIP, to Whisper, and now this project, I do appreciate that effort from their team. So thanks, if you're reading this!
forgingahead··on What if your entire worldview was just because of near-zero interest rates?
I'm old enough to remember in university economics class, the professor would joke about how financial media would closely watch press conferences that Alan Greenspan would give after FOMC meetings, down to watching the thickness of the briefcase to guess as to whether the fed funds rate (which determines interest rates) would increase or decrease.

I am happy rates have risen, and I hope they stay at a sane level more in line with historical values rather than the insane period of the past 14 years. As another commenter here points out, when rates are not-zero, business defaults back to value-creation, instead of other silly game-the-system metrics that have arisen in this time frame.

Of course it will be painful, both for a generation of younger people who have never experienced "high rates", and also for the finance "professionals" who built reputations on nothing more than gaining access to easy-money and deploying them randomly to things which only rise in value because others also pumped in easy-money down the line. It may also address some of the woke-time-wasting initiatives at companies, as anything not actually adding value will be dropped.

The main thing will be to see if the Fed actually stays the course, or if the allure of the money-printer is too seductive and they decide to drop rates back down again even after (or worse, before) inflation is tamed. If so, then the currency will continue to debase until the crypto exit is inevitable.

forgingahead··on The Twitter Files Part 2: Twitter's Secret Blacklists
Not to mention the commenters here as well:

"There's no evidence people and tweets are being suppressed"

<Shows Evidence with receipts>

"This is old news, nothing new here."

Is there a mailing list where these things are coordinated? I remember there was JournoList in the late 2000s, so is there a new one for internet commenters of a certain political persuasion? How do they get the talking points memo?

forgingahead··on Software horror show: SAP Concur
I unfortunately still end up working with contractors who produce code with similar thoughtlessness. Yes, a company like SAP should have caught it via the myriad of reviews and approvals, but ultimately if even in my small universe, this kind of issue can occur because some people just don't care to do a proper job, then it can certainly occur at a larger scale company despite many more layers or "process" to prevent this.
forgingahead··on $7M lost on Amazon inventory, then bankrupt
As a friend in a tech industry, I tell all my friends to budget 50% of their revenue for tech investment and R&D. Oh and conveniently, I also have a company that can help them with these investments.

Seriously, don't swallow cock-and-bull statements like "legal should be 10% of your revenue". I remember years ago the landlord of my co-working space glibly told me that "as long as office rent is not more than 10% of your revenue you're good" in response to me pushing back to rent hike increases. Ridiculous conmen.

forgingahead··on The Twitter Files
It's fascinating to me that so many (even a majority) of the direct comment replies to this post are a version of "this is nothing bad" or "nothing new to see here" or just arguing semantics about who was "running the govt" at the time (and so again, "nothing to see here").

This really comes across as party partisans, or party stooges, just flooding the conversation trying to massage the consensus. To people who are die-hard members of this political tribe, it's apparently impossible for them to see how vastly illiberal this situation was to regular people, and how uncomfortable it makes true political independents (never mind people on the opposite political tribe, where all it does is to further inflame their belief of being targeted unfairly all the time).

forgingahead··on FTX’s balance sheet was bad
This is a rich observation, since (anecdotally) it seems like all the initial customers/traction for YC companies is from other YC companies.

Nothing wrong at all, it's good to bootstrap an initial customer base and get some user-feedback, but until the chasm is crossed to "real" customers, one could argue that this is the same case nowadays. So the dotcom time was no better nor worse than right now in terms of startup viability.

forgingahead··on FTX tapped into customer accounts to fund risky bets, setting up its downfall
Like any politician railing about higher taxes and "eating the rich" - it's always never about their own money!
forgingahead··on $118 16TB SSD on Amazon, 4 star reviews mention cuff links and coffee cups
This is hilarious because to sign up as a seller on Amazon, they do this onerous process where amongst other things:

1. You need to upload photo ID and address details that have a funky AI auto-check (which often fails) to ensure what you've entered is what is on the ID docs.

2. They mail (snail mail) you a physical postcard with a printed One-Time Token to enter into your pending seller account.

3. You need to do a video call with one of their staff members to verify your identity, which also involves the pantomime of putting your passport or other ID document next to your face in the webcam so they can "check".

Yet listing re-use, with "Ships from Amazon" and the nice Prime checkmark, for something totally fraudulent, is still trivial to do.

I used to buy everything online from Amazon, and now it's much more of a judicious process which can cause family strife - I had a huge argument about not using a generic China-sold electronic in our kitchen because I was worried about the safety mark validity.

This, like the Twitter bot problem, seems solvable, but it's strange why this doesn't appear to be a focus for them.

forgingahead··on Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse
Yeah this the thing - somehow those of us who chose not to over-extend in times of exuberance are the ones who lost out? I've been renting for a long time, but my market still doesn't let me buy a home that I could live in with my family for an amount that won't make me lose sleep when rates go up (like everywhere outside the US, most mortgages are ARMs here). Like many of this board, I'm in the upper-echelon of earners in my location, but I refuse to over-extend on a housing loan like many folks in my location.

The only difference is that recently I've resigned myself to the fact that maybe I'll never own in my current location - which even though may be emotionally sad, at least I don't have a crazy monthly payment for a shoebox apartment.

forgingahead··on An AI generated, never-ending discussion between Werner Herzog and Slavoj ŽIžek
How long did you train the models for each speaker, and what hardware were you using?
forgingahead··on Ask HN: What is your fav “I can't believe in 2022 this still doesn't work right”
Printers and bluetooth (separately), easily the two weakest links of any computing chain.
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