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fr0sty

2,995 karma · joined December 29, 2009

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fr0sty··on Knight Capital Says Trading Glitch Cost It $440 Million
> I'm looking forward to the Nanex analysis of this one

Already posted:

http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/3522.html

fr0sty··on Knight Capital Says Trading Glitch Cost It $440 Million
The 'Does HFT add value?' question gets flogged to death every time one of these articles gets posted.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3894302

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3852341

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2828538

fr0sty··on Knight Capital Says Trading Glitch Cost It $440 Million
> A heuristic like "only make 1000 trades a minute" could have saved Knight $400 million!

A heuristic like that would not allow Knight to function. Knight is an electronic market-maker (one of the biggest) and is probably making markets in thousands of symbols and likely updates those quotes several times a second. Their normal quoting rate is on the order of millions of messages/minute and in volatile times may spike 10x or more and still be within 'normal' limits.

fr0sty··on Knight Capital Says Trading Glitch Cost It $440 Million
Interesting theory, but there is no implicit parity between # of winners and # of losers. Whereas 1 firm lost $440M there were thousands (maybe tens of thousands) of firms and individuals that made hundreds or thousands of dollars.
fr0sty··on Bruce Schneier: Drawing the wrong lessons from horrific events
> military-style weaponry

Please stop.

All semi-automatic rifles with detachable magazines are functionally identical.

The suspect had a rifle, shotgun and handgud. that is 'loaded up'?

Since when does 'requires federal background check' == 'nearly unregulated'?

fr0sty··on For More Pianos, Last Note Is Thud in the Dump
> you can buy a new one made in China that’s just as good.

This is rather debatable. I would rather have a restored piano from an established manufacturer than a shiny new one from an untested brand at the same price.

fr0sty··on For More Pianos, Last Note Is Thud in the Dump
> I can even predict that in ten years Steinway will bankrupt like what Kodak did.

I'll take the other side of that bet.

fr0sty··on Gunsmith Uses 3D Printer To Make A Rifle
In the eyes of the ATF he DID print a gun. The lower receiver is a 'gun' for the purposes of manufacturing. The upper receiver, buffer tube, trigger group, etc. are just parts...
fr0sty··on Even experts get it wrong
This American Life did a show recently (in the past year) about patent trolls (focusing on Intellectual Ventures):

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/441/w...

Their explanation of the venue choice was that the other federal courts were choked with drug-related cases and going to East Texas was a way to get a speedier trial.

fr0sty··on Why Johnny Can’t Add Without a Calculator
The section regarding textbooks and the conflicting agencas of the teachers (use what is good and what works) and the principals (use the new shiny ones) reminded me of Richard Feynman's stint on a textbook selection committee: http://www.textbookleague.org/103feyn.htm

Compare this from the article:

  "[T]he standard geometry book for Fairfax County, which is 
  used in schools around the country, tries to explain what 
  a mathematical point is by analogy to pixels on TV 
  screens, which are not in fact point-like."
With This:

  "[T]he books were so lousy. They were false. They were 
  hurried. They would try to be rigorous, but they would use 
  examples (like automobiles in the street for "sets") which 
  were almost OK, but in which there were always some 
  subtleties."
Feyman continues:

  "The definitions weren't accurate. Everything was a little 
  bit ambiguous -- they weren't smart enough to understand 
  what was meant by "rigor." They were faking it. They were 
  teaching something they didn't understand, and which was, 
  in fact, useless, at that time, for the child."
fr0sty··on Short-term rentals disrupting SF housing market
> and since there is not negative feedback mechanism everyone just charges more and more.

There IS a negative feedback mechanism. Occupancy rates. Once people stop paying the asking rates for listings the prices will fall. It is called "what the market will bear".

fr0sty··on Why I Use Perl: Reliability
Putting "would" in front of "have" turns it into "would've (wood of)" when spoken.

And the number 3 is different from your fingers being number now than they were before.

Not sure about 'familiar' though.

fr0sty··on Why airplane bathrooms have ashtrays
And given that a lit cigarette is not hot enough to ignite gasoline vapor what is the issue?

Representative sample: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2007/feb/27/smoking.film

fr0sty··on Post-Mortem for NASDAQ issues related to the Facebook Inc. (FB) IPO
The relevant quote:

> After the calculaton of the FB IPO Cross was completed, but before printing the opening trade, additional order modifications were received by the system, changing the auction order book. As designed, the system recalculated the IPO auction to factor in the new book state. Again, changes were received before the IPO cross could print the opening trade, which resulted in additional re-calculations. This condition persisted, resulting in further delay of the opening print.

fr0sty··on Somebody please, for the love of god, fix shipping/couriers
This is being tested by Amazon in the US, actually.

http://mashable.com/2011/09/06/amazon-locker-system/

fr0sty··on Is an open-source pacemaker safer than closed-source?
Nit-pick: pacemakers don't shock you, internal cardioverter defibrillators do.

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/pacemakersandimplantabled...

fr0sty··on How Google's Self-Driving Car Works
Modern engine control is a collection of lookup tables and feedback loops with some preprogrammed "limp" modes to fall back on if things go pear-shaped.

Robust? yes. Adaptive? yes. Complex? not really. Computer vision, road/object/hazard detection and avoidance and the like much much harder problems to solve.

fr0sty··on GMail: designer arrogance and the cult of minimalism
I use excel every week or so and I grumble at that stupid ribbon every time.

I _was_ a proficient excel user once upon a time but now I feel like I'm trying to cook in my kitchen after some "organization expert" came in and moved all my stuff.

IMO, life is too short to have to re-learn stuff you already know.

fr0sty··on A High Frequency Trader's Apology, Pt 2
>The genius of ETN creators

What is your definition of "ETN"? The only definition I know is "Exchange Traded Note" which doesn't make sense here. Do you mean "ECN"(Electronic Communications Network)?

fr0sty··on A High Frequency Trader's Apology, Pt 2
> did major markets ever really have a huge problem with lack of liquidity, 20 or 30 years ago before HFT?

Yes. huge problems. 20 years ago (1992) stocks were traded in 1/8ths or 1/4s (minimum spreads of (12.5 or 25 cents) often more than one tick wide. By the turn of the century stocks had all been decimalized (traded in pennies) but spreads were still wide.

This article: page 25 of this paper[1] shows the average stock spread of S&P500 stocks being squished from 8cents in 1997 to less than 2cents in 2010.

[1] www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/...d/murphy_kim_spread.pdf

fr0sty··on A High Frequency Trader's Apology, Pt 2
There was an extensive discussion on this point in the previous HN thread: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3855610

The short summary is no one can come up with something better than price-time priority for matching orders.

fr0sty··on My Problem with Git: No Abstraction
"That's a failure of software design."

Or the evidence of a differing opinion on what amount of complexity is necessary.

fr0sty··on My Problem with Git: No Abstraction
The Hole Hawg is quite real, actually:

http://www.milwaukeetool.com/tools/drills/hole-hawgs

fr0sty··on My Problem with Git: No Abstraction
Maybe it is a UNIX/non-UNIX thing...

I have been using UNIX-type operating systems almost exclusively for the whole of my professional life so have zero appreciation for the troubles people have when approaching UNIX tools from a Windows (or whatever) mindset.

Git (and the whole toolchain and OS for that matter) is much more about DWIS than DWIM and that does not click for a lot of people.

fr0sty··on It's definitely a bubble
> If this is a bubble, and you know that eventually certain companies behaving this way are gonna tank -- then you can bet right now that way and earn a big payout if that's the case.

"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." -- John Maynard Keynes

That is: if you short a stock (leaving aside that you cannot short non-public stock) and it continues to go up you will need to continue adding money to your account to cover your accumulating losses. If it goes up high enough and you don't have enough collateral your position is closed and you are broke.

It is not enough just to identify a bubble you also have to call the top with a reasonably degree of accuracy.

fr0sty··on It's definitely a bubble
A ponzi is where you use the money from new investors to pay off earlier investors.

Early investors in startups cash out during later funding rounds or acquisitions.

QED.

fr0sty··on Why The US Can Beat China: The Facts About SpaceX Costs
>who else could you hold responsible?

The contractor who underbid. If Roger's submits a bid for $1m to deliver 50k widgets he shouldn't be able to come back after the fact and demand $4m to complete the project because he underestimated his costs.

fr0sty··on Redditors who are rich (net worth $1 million+) - how did you get rich?
"Which will then inevitably lose you the full value."

Not even close. Insurance will reimburse you for the loss (minus a deductable).

fr0sty··on Learn to read a binary font by reading a story
This reminds me a great deal of Mark Twain's plan for the improvement of English Spelling:

http://www.i18nguy.com/twain.html

fr0sty··on IETF attendees reengineer their hotel's Wi-Fi network
Maintenance of a basic WiFi access point has exactly one step:

1. Reset Router.

Hardly rocket science...

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